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The Los Angeles Chargers will take on the Atlanta Falcons at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday at SoFi Stadium. The Chargers are 3-9 overall and 2-4 at home, while Atlanta is 4-8 overall and 2-3 on the road. The Chargers have lost five of their past six games. The Falcons have lost two of their past three.  

Atlanta is favored by one point in the latest Chargers vs. Falcons odds from William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 49. Before entering any Falcons vs. Chargers picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 20-11 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning almost $800. The model also enters Week 14 on an incredible 116-76 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chargers vs. Falcons. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for Falcons vs. Chargers:

  • Chargers vs. Falcons spread: Chargers +1
  • Chargers vs. Falcons over-under: 49 points
  • Chargers vs. Falcons money line: Los Angeles +110, Atlanta -110

What you need to know about the Chargers

Los Angeles was embarrassed by the New England Patriots this past Sunday, 45-0. It was the worst loss in Chargers history, eclipsing a 49-6 defeat to Kansas City in 1964. Los Angeles was shut out for the first time since 2014 and will finish with a losing record for the second consecutive season. Justin Herbert was 26 of 53 for 209 yards with two INTs. It was the first time he was held without a TD pass this season. 

Austin Ekeler led the team with 68 scrimmage yards (36 rushing) last week. He has 589 scrimmage yards (328 rushing) this season and is one of four running backs with 250-plus receiving yards in each of the last four seasons. Keenan Allen has seven-plus catches and 95-plus yards in five of six home games this season. He is tied for the NFL lead with 90 catches. The Chargers have lost eight of 10 all-time meetings with the Falcons. 

What you need to know about the Falcons

Meanwhile, Atlanta lost 21-16 to the New Orleans Saints this past Sunday. The Falcons totaled just 70 rushing yards and averaged 3.3 yards per carry. Todd Gurley, returning from a knee injury, was held to 16 yards on eight carries. Gurley took a seven-yard loss on a crucial third-down run from the Saints 12 with under two minutes remaining. He has been held under three yards per carry in five of the past six games. The Falcons are now one loss away from consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 2001. 

Atlanta has scored on 50 percent of its red-zone possessions this season, which is 29th out of 32 teams. Matt Ryan, who has 54,622 career yards, needs 207 to surpass Peyton Manning for the most by a quarterback in his first 13 seasons. Younghoe Koo has made 24 straight field goals since his only miss of the season in Week 3. Julio Jones will miss his fourth game of the season this week because of a hamstring injury. 

How to make Falcons vs. Chargers picks

The model has simulated Chargers vs. Falcons 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning over on the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Falcons vs. Chargers? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chargers vs. Falcons spread to jump on Sunday, all from the model that enters Week 14 of the NFL season on an incredible 116-76 roll.