Jared Goff isn't Super Bowl LIII's version of Joe Flacco for both good and bad reasons
The Rams' QB enters the Super Bowl against Tom Brady and the Patriots as the biggest question mark in the game
It's been a while since the Super Bowl has featured a younger, emerging quarterback who has divided public opinion with promising, but inconsistent performances, but Rams quarterback Jared Goff is finally here to fill that void.
A year ago, 40-year-old Tom Brady -- already widely considered the greatest quarterback of all time -- went up against long-time backup Nick Foles, who was only filling for Carson Wentz. The year prior, Brady faced off against the league MVP in Matt Ryan. In 2016, future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning stood on the opposite sideline as league MVP Cam Newton. In 2015, Brady and reigning Super Bowl champion Russell Wilson dueled in a back-and-forth thriller.
We have to go back to 2014 or 2013 to find a quarterback comparable to Goff. In 2014, Manning faced Wilson in Wilson's first Super Bowl appearance as a second-year starter. In 2013, Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick were the final two quarterbacks standing. It was Kaepernick's first season as a starter and he'd only taken over for Alex Smith halfway through the year. For Flacco, it was one of the few times he'd shown glimpses of greatness, and he was playing for a new contract -- a contract he got, which crippled the Ravens for years after Joe Flacco morphed back into regular-season Joe Flacco.
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In Super Bowl LIII on Sunday, televised by CBS and streamed on CBSSports.com and on the CBS Sports App, Goff will be going up against Brady. There's no doubt that he'll enter the game as the worst of the two quarterbacks. There's no doubt he was the worst of the four remaining quarterbacks in the conference championship round. There's no doubt he was in the middle of the pack when the playoffs began with 12 quarterbacks. It's entirely fair to question Goff's credentials. It's fair to wonder if he's good enough to lead the Rams to a win over the Patriots. Goff's contract isn't up yet, but it's not outrageous to say the outcome of Sunday's game will have an impact when contract negotiations eventually come around. A Super Bowl ring does wonders for a quarterback's reputation.
But that doesn't make him this Super Bowl's version of Flacco.
jared goff is just a young Joe Flacco
— jake (@JakeSeidl) January 20, 2019
Goff might Flacco his way into a contract
— Vicenarian (@raymondowey) January 20, 2019
Goff just another joe flacco
— Galiardo (@gtgaliardo7) January 20, 2019
Bro Jared Goff the new Flacco....smh he’s not an elite QB
— Ser Davos (@Chubbykylle) January 21, 2019
Goff the weakest qb i ever seen go to the sb
— Jazz (@KinggShane) January 21, 2019
Prolly weaker Joe Flacco
Jared Goff will be the next Joe Flacco
— John Wendt (@JohnWendtWhere) January 24, 2019
For one, Goff is already better than Flacco. This past regular season (his third season), Goff completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 4,688 yards, 32 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a 101.1 passer rating. In Flacco's Super Bowl-winning season (his fifth season), he completed 59.7 percent of his passes for 3,817 yards, 22 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and an 87.7 passer rating.
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Obviously, the NFL as a whole has become a better passing league since 2012, but Goff submitted a way above average season in 2018 while Flacco submitted a very average season in 2012. The average passer rating this season was 92.9, per Pro Football Reference. Goff was nearly 10 points above this past season's average. In 2012, it was 85.6. Flacco was just over two points above the average passer rating in 2012.
Among his peers, Goff ranked 20th in completion percentage, but fourth in yards, tied for sixth in touchdowns, eighth in passer rating, sixth in DYAR, sixth in DVOA, and 11th in QBR. Among his peers in 2012, Flacco ranked 19th in completion percentage, 14th in yards, tied for 15th in touchdowns, 12th in passer rating, 17th in DYAR, 17th in DVOA, and 25th in QBR. By most measures, Goff was a top-10 quarterback this season. By most measures, Flacco was an average at best quarterback in 2012.
In that sense, Goff's numbers this season are more comparable to Wilson's during his Super Bowl season. In 2013 (Wilson's second season), he ranked 12th in completion percentage, 16th in yards, tied for ninth in touchdowns, seventh in passer rating, ninth in DYAR, eighth in DVOA, and 13th in QBR. As you can see below, Goff's 2018 season has been the best of the bunch statistically speaking and much more in line with Wilson's 2013 season than Flacco's 2012 season.
| Comp. % | Yards | TDs | Rating | DYAR | DVOA | QBR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Flacco in '12 | 19th | 14th | t-15th | 12th | 17th | 17th | 25th |
Wilson in '13 | 12th | 16th | t-9th | 7th | 9th | 8th | 13th |
Goff in '18 | 20th | 4th | t-6th | 8th | 6th | 6th | 11th |
The second reason why Goff isn't comparable to Flacco is that the two entered the Super Bowl in entirely different form. Goff is stuck in a slump that started in the regular season and has continued into the playoffs whereas Flacco rode the hottest hot streak in the history of hot streaks en route to winning the Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVP, which forced the Ravens to gave him a way-too-expensive contract that has haunted them ever since.
In his first 11 games this season, Goff completed 67.7 percent of his passes, averaged 9.3 yards per attempt, and threw 26 touchdowns and six interceptions. He was a fringe MVP candidate. In his past seven games, he's completed 58.9 percent of his passes, averaged 6.5 yards per pass, and thrown seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. Now, pundits are wondering if he's going to cost the Rams their chance at a championship. The Rams may have gotten the second seed in the playoffs partly because of Goff, but they did not journey to the Super Bowl because of Goff. They journeyed to the Super Bowl despite Goff continuing to play meh at best football.
Flacco, on the other hand, carried the Ravens to the Super Bowl. During that Super Bowl run, which required three wins away from home and four wins total, Flacco completed 57.9 percent of his passes, averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, and threw an insane 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions for an equally insane 117.2 passer rating.
None of this should come as a surprise. For one, Goff should be better than Flacco. He was the first-overall pick in 2016 for a reason. Flacco got picked 18th overall back in 2008. The expectations for Goff should be higher. And while going to a Super Bowl this early in his career should be commended ...
Jared Goff needed only 3 seasons to reach the Super Bowl, fewest by a QB picked number 1 overall in NFL history (via @EliasSports). pic.twitter.com/IZRqn3wbrp
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 29, 2019
... he needs to continue to develop if he's to live up to expectations, which very well could happen considering he's only 24 and he already submitted a top-10 season as a third-year starting quarterback. Simply put, though, he hasn't been good enough since November. He's a very good passer when he can drop back and step into his throw without a pass rusher bearing down on him, but he doesn't fare well under duress or when he can't step into his throw.
He's benefited greatly by one of the league's best play-callers and schemers in Sean McVay, and a tremendous supporting cast from a solid offensive line to Todd Gurley to Brandin Cooks to Robert Woods. He's often always put in the best-possible situation. That has to factor into the discourse. But that doesn't mean Goff should be expected to replicate what Flacco did over a four-game stretch six years ago. What Flacco did has never been accomplished by another quarterback. We might not ever see a playoff run like that again.
For both good and bad reasons, Goff isn't this Super Bowl's version of Flacco. Goff is already better than Flacco, but he's not playing as well as Flacco did during the Ravens' championship stretch. That's good for the Rams' long-term outlook, but it might not be good for their outlook in Sunday's Super Bowl.
















