NFL Week 15 picks, best bets: Vikings rebound vs. Colts; Giants' Daniel Jones falls to 0-10 in prime time

Jordan Dajani gives his picks for Week 15 of the 2022 NFL season

By Jordan Dajani

Dec 15, 2022 at 9:49 am ET • 6 min read

USATSI

We had a pretty tough Week 14 when it came to our top five picks. I'm not sure anyone expected Baker Mayfield to lead an incredible comeback win over the Las Vegas Raiders in his first action with the Los Angeles Rams. Then, the Tennessee Titans completely rolled over against the Jacksonville Jaguars at home, losing their first game in Nashville to the Jags since 2013, and Patrick Mahomes got too cute against the Denver Broncos. They were up 27-0 late in the second quarter and then only won by six? Making the Kansas City Chiefs an ATS best bet is always scary. That's a ML team.

Week 15 features some pretty incredible matchups. Can the Detroit Lions keep things rolling against the sliding New York Jets? Can Trevor Lawrence upset the Dallas Cowboys? Who will win the rematch between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders?

Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.

All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Top five picks ATS record: 35-34-1
Overall ATS record: 109-93-6
Straight up record: 135-71-2

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4)

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (NFL Network, FuboTV)

The Colts have lost three straight since Jeff Saturday won his debut as interim head coach, with the most recent L being the 54-19 beatdown handed to them by the Cowboys. Maybe they can rebound against a Vikings defense that has allowed 400-plus yards of total offense and 300-plus passing yards in five straight games. However, Minnesota is 3-2 ATS and SU over that five-game span.

I really thought the Vikings defense had turned a corner after the win over the Jets. This unit held New York to 1 for 6 in the red zone, and recorded two interceptions. However, they were destroyed by Jared Goff and the Lions last Sunday. Some wondered if a double-digit win team should be a road underdog against the Lions, but Vegas was right. After last week, the Vikings statistically have the worst defense in the NFL.

I was wrong about Minnesota last week, but I'm giving Kevin O'Connell another chance. The Vikings are still a solid team, and this home game provides a bounce-back opportunity.

The pick: Vikings -4
Projected score: Vikings 27-21

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (NFL Network, FuboTV)

Man, the Dolphins went from one of the NFL's most intriguing teams to one of the most disappointing teams over the past two weeks. We knew the defense wasn't that great, but Tua Tagovailoa's struggles have sent the Dolphins diving. Just 3-of-15 passing at halftime last week? Sheesh.

The Bills lost to the Dolphins in Miami back in Week 3 in what was a weird matchup, so Buffalo has that revenge factor in play. During the Bills' win over the New England Patriots earlier this month, star wideout Stefon Diggs was seen saying, "I want the f-----g Dolphins." Diggs took to Twitter to say that's not actually what he said, but you can judge for yourself.

Against the Los Angeles Chargers in Inglewood, the Dolphins needed heaters on the sideline. Now, they travel to Buffalo, where Saturday's expected temperature is 28 degrees. It marks Tagovailoa's first NFL game in freezing conditions, and snow showers are potentially in the forecast as well.

The Bills are a good ML play if you're looking for a parlay, but I'll take the points in this column. Tagovailoa is 0-4 in his four coldest games played, and 0-2 against the Bills in Buffalo with one passing touchdown compared to four interceptions. The Bills have won their past two games by at least eight points. I'll lay the 7 here.

The pick: Bills -7
Projected score: Bills 28-17

Philadelphia Eagles (-9) at Chicago Bears

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

The Bears have been eliminated from the playoffs, and Justin Fields is dealing with an illness while Chase Claypool missed practice Wednesday with a knee injury. I'm not saying both won't play, but the Eagles are an absolute WAGON.

Philly is third in total offense and second in total defense this season. The Bears have lost six straight and are just 1-5 ATS during that span. The Eagles are 8-5 ATS on the year while the Bears are 4-8-1 ATS. Jalen Hurts has a 117.3 passer rating since Week 8, which ranks best in the NFL. The Bears defense, meanwhile, has allowed a 116.5 passer rating since Week 8, which ranks worst in the NFL. With the Eagles coming off a 48-22 win on the road in New York, I think they have the momentum needed to cover against a lesser opponent.

The pick: Eagles -9
Projected score: Eagles 30-20

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Did you know the Bengals are one of the best teams in the NFL to bet on? Joe Burrow and his friends are 10-3 ATS while the Buccaneers are 3-9-1 ATS. Cincy is on a five-game win streak since starting 4-4, as the team is finally rolling. The Bengals didn't even have their best performance against the Cleveland Browns last week, and still won by 13 points. The run game has looked pretty great as of late (4.6 yards per rush during this win streak), and Ja'Marr Chase still looks unstoppable.

As for the Bucs, I don't know if they can turn this around. Tom Brady has already tied his most losses in a single season, and there are other statistics which prove this is Brady's worst season ever. The Bucs' points per game (17.2) ranks dead-last for a Brady-led team, his 6.2 yards per attempt ranks last and his touchdown percentage of 2.9% ranks last. Tampa Bay's 3-9-1 ATS record even has the 2022 campaign on track to be Brady's worst ATS season ever. I'm going to take the Bengals and hope the hook doesn't get me.

The pick: Bengals -3.5
Projected score: Bengals 24-17

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-4.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)

The Commanders had a great bye week. Despite not playing, they moved up two spots in the playoff picture with the Seattle Seahawks and Giants both losing. Washington is one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, and had the extra week to prepare for a divisional rival it just saw. While Washington is trending upwards, New York is trending downwards. The Giants are 1-3-1 in their past five games, with the most recent loss being a 48-22 beatdown suffered at the hands of the Eagles at home on Sunday.

In addition to the extra rest and no travel, Washington is also expected to see the return of star pass rusher Chase Young, who is going to bring some energy to this underrated defense. The Commanders are 6-1-1 over their past eight games after starting 1-4. They are allowing 16 points per game during that eight-game span, which ranks second in the NFL. This is a big game, and Taylor Heinicke craves these big moments. As for Daniel Jones, he's 0-9 in primetime.

The pick: Commanders -4.5
Projected score: Commanders 28-23