After another strong week -- this time going 3-1-1 with my Week 15 best bets -- I've surged to the top of the leaderboard. Unfortunately it's not the actual SuperContest leaderboard, but the Pick Six Podcast leaderboard, which only features three people. Pete Prisco, Nick Kostos are all part of #TeamOS (via the wonderful folks at OddsShark.com), and we've been battling all season long with our five best bets of the week. Not gonna lie: I started cold. 

But we've been warm lately, going 19-5-1 over the last five weeks. 

This week I've got not just five picks but six picks! And that's not because I'm feeling frisky, it's because I want to reserve the right to change my Lions-Bengals pick based on the Cincy injury report. If Vontaze Burfict and a bunch of defenders are back, I might zig. But I still like the Lions on Christmas Eve.

Not going to be scared of big spreads when there are good teams playing bad teams. Holler at me on Twitter @WillBrinson if you love these picks, hate these picks or have better suggestions.

Panthers -10 vs. Buccaneers 

This is a huge line, but I don't care in the slightest. The Panthers have everything to play for here, because a win and they are guaranteed to make the playoffs. Win and they are very much in the hunt for the NFC South title (they need Atlanta to beat the Saints). Lose, and there is a decent chance they have to travel to Atlanta knowing that if they lose that game, they will miss the playoffs. This is their ticket to the postseason.

Cam Newton is starting to find his stride, and Mike Shula has been calling some nice games lately. Newton is completing just 56 percent of his passes over the last five games, and only averaging about 195 passing yards, but he has 11 passing touchdowns and just one pick. He's also averaging 60 rushing yards per game in that stretch. His best game -- a four-touchdown performance against Green Bay last week, when he outperformed Aaron Rodgers -- coincidentally came with the return to health of Greg Olsen. Mix his top receiving weapon with Christian McCaffrey -- averaging 77 yards from scrimmage per game on just 12 touches in that five game stretch -- starting to come on strong and you have a formula for an offense to take off at the right time.

The Bucs are coming off their Super Bowl, a loss to the Falcons at home on Monday night, and should be sufficiently deflated for this one. Panthers roll big.

Ravens -13.5 vs. Colts

The Colts were fairly frisky on Thursday against the Broncos, but collapsed again. It's a weekly tradition in the NFL, to be honest. Unfortunately you can't take the second-half line in the SuperContest, so here we are laying almost two touchdowns with the Ravens on an eve of Christmas Eve special.

Don't want to alarm anyone here, but Joe Flacco is playing good football lately, averaging 230 yards per game with six touchdowns and two interceptions over his past five games while completing 64 percent of his passes. Since the calendar flipped to December, he's averaging 275 yards per game with five touchdowns and one interception. The Colts, meanwhile, are a terrible football team. As an away team, they are 2-5 against the spread, losing those games by 14.3 points and failing to cover those games by 6.6 points.

The Ravens know what is at stake here, because with a win they would put themselves in position to beat the Bengals at home in Week 17 and secure the No. 5 seed in the AFC. That isn't just a playoff berth, it's also a guarantee of avoiding the Steelers/Jaguars in the No. 3 seed.

Bills +11 at Patriots

Boy, nothing sounds less fun than betting against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in the month of December. But this line is too high given the situation for both teams.

Buffalo is fighting for its playoff life; as mentioned above, the Ravens have two easy matchups to try and secure a wild-card berth. The Bills can win out to finish 10-6 and all but guarantee a playoff berth -- if they only win one game to close out the season, they will put themselves in danger of missing the playoffs via a tiebreaker. That might not mean they can simply beat the Pats in New England late in the year, of course, but this is not that bad a matchup for them considering the circumstances. The Bills have LeSean McCoy running the ball very well, and the Patriots have the worst rush defense by DVOA. Buffalo should be able to move the ball.

The Patriots are not going to be interested in trying to score 40 points here, not with the No. 1 seed in the AFC all but secure with victories over Buffalo and the Jets. Rob Gronkowski is not going over the middle for a bunch of receptions when his health is paramount for the postseason. This is a game where the Pats want to melt clock and get out of dodge with everyone healthy. Maybe this is the Mike Gillislee revenge game if (when) he's finally active. 

49ers +4.5 vs. Jaguars

All aboard the Jimmy Garoppolo bandwagon, for the fourth week in a row.

The 49ers have looked like a much different and much better team with Jimmy G under center. I think there's a good chance that this will be a flat moment for the Jaguars, with them heading on the road after hanging a 45-burger on the Texans in Week 15. They're traveling all the way across the country -- almost as far as an NFL team can travel, really -- and face a frisky Niners team that has been inspired by the play of their newest addition, Jimmy G. The 49ers aren't great on the offensive line, which is a big concern, but they can slow down the Jaguars run game, and Blake Bortles is due for a little regression anyway.

Give me the points here with the home team in a game that will come down to a field goal. 

Texans +9 vs. Steelers

The Texans are not very good at football these days, so taking them plus the points is concerning. Especially against a team like the Steelers, who are still in play for the top seed in the AFC.

But the problem with Pittsburgh is that they're coming off a brutal and emotional loss to the Patriots at home in Week 15, in a game that featured Antonio Brown going down with injury. Ben Roethlisberger just lost his top weapon, knows he has to play in New England if he wants to make the Super Bowl and is about to head to Houston to play on Christmas afternoon. The Steelers are also 0-3 this season against the spread as a road favorite of seven points or more, and 3-5 since 2012 in that situation, with the only wins against the spread coming in Cleveland (twice) and on Thanksgiving last year against Indy, when the Colts started Scott Tolzien. 

Bonus pick: Lions -4 at Bengals 

This is not necessarily a bet on the Lions so much as it is a bet against the Bengals, who appear to have given up on the season for about the past 10 quarters or so. They did not bother showing up against either the Bears in Week 14 or the Vikings in Week 15, and their second-half performance against the Steelers in Week 13 left a lot to be desired.

Meanwhile, the Lions get some extra rest, having thumped the Bears last Saturday, and are fighting for their playoff lives. Matthew Stafford is averaging 296 passing yards per game and completing 73 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions over his last seven games.

If the Friday injury reports come out and the Lions' offensive line is devastated and most of the Bengals' defenders are back for this game or look like they will be, I'll be off Detroit as one of my five best bets, although I still like them here. As of Friday around 1 p.m. I am leaning towards getting off the Lions, so be aware.

Also worth noting for Pick Six Podcast listeners: I was originally on WAS -3.5 but their injury report scared me off too. Don't touch it.

  • Last week best bets: 3-1-1
  • Best bets season: 36-37-2
  • Last week overall: 5-8-3
  • Season overall: 110-104-10