If my weekly best bets were an NFL team, they wouldn't be the Dolphins -- at least I've emerged from one week with what I'd call a win -- but they sure as heck wouldn't be the Patriots or Chiefs or even the Vikings. I guess they'd be the Steelers, a team that we can't quite write off yet, but is already running out of time to salvage its season. 

It's been a horrific start to the season for yours truly, but after posting a 1-9 record in Weeks 1 and 2 (seriously), I've "rebounded" (by my standards) to go 4-5-1 over the past two weeks. Progress! Again, by my standards. The good news? We're all going to die one day so none of this really matters.

If you, like me, are having a difficult time picking games this year, might I recommend some depressing music as a coping mechanism? I might not be able to reliably recommend good bets so far this season, but what I am reliable at is recommending good depressing music. This week's official pick involves a "hopelessly hopeless" lyric, which seems like a good way to sum up my best bets.

Anyway, I'll save you the excuses (did the Colts really let the Raiders come into Indianapolis and do that to them?) and instead, get right to my picks for Week 5. The first quarter of the season is over. It's time to rebound (by everyone else's standards, hopefully) in the remaining three quarters. 

Last week: 2-3
This year: 5-14-1

All odds via SportsLine

Will Brinson, Pete Prisco and R.J. White break down all of this week's games with their picks, parlays and best bets on Friday's Pick Six Podcast. Give it a listen below and be sure to subscribe:

1. Bears at Raiders Under 40.5

So much for regression. Through the first four weeks of the season, the Bears' defense is up to third in DVOA while allowing only 11.3 points per game. Only the Patriots have allowed fewer points. Even without three key players up front, including defensive tackle Akiem Hicks, who might be the team's second best player, the Bears' defense sacked Kirk Cousins six times last week, forced two turnovers and three fumbles, and limited the Vikings to under 100 yards of offense in the portion of the game that mattered before garbage time began late in the fourth quarter. That's the first reason why I like the under. The Bears defense is incredible.

The second reason I like the under is the state of the Bears' offense: 26th in DVOA and missing its starting quarterback, Mitchell Trubisky, who won't play against the Raiders after suffering a serious shoulder injury in the early going of their win over the Vikings. That means it'll be Chase Daniel's offense.

While Daniel appears to understand Matt Nagy's offense and opposing defenses better than Trubisky, he doesn't possess the physical attributes that made Trubisky such a high draft pick a few years ago, which places a low ceiling on this Bears offense, which means I'm not expecting much from them. Once they get a lead, I suspect they'll do what they did a week ago against the Vikings: get ultra conservative and rely on the defense to close out the game.

Back to the defense, because I think they'll be dominant against a bad Raiders offense. If there's one thing Derek Carr is terrible at (OK fine, there's more than just one) it's playing against defenses that can generate pressure. Not only is this Khalil Mack's revenge game ...

... but it's also a game that will mark the return of inside linebacker Roquan Smith, who happens to be a tremendous blitzer, after a mysterious absence in Week 4. 

Three of the Bears' first four games have gone under, by the way. Expect another low-scoring game.

2. Bears -5.5 at Raiders

Double-dipping in London! I also like the Bears to wallop the Raiders. 

Even though Daniel is a backup quarterback, he's good enough to avoid turnovers and execute Nagy's offense competently enough against a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA. And once the Bears get a lead, they can close out the game comfortably enough with their defense. 

Even after last week's surprising win over the Colts in Indianapolis, the Raiders are 3-7 against the spread on the road under Jon Gruden. And Gruden, by the way, absolutely loathes traveling. Remember what he said last year before the Raiders took off for London?

"I hope I can make it, honestly. I'm not great (traveling)," Gruden said. "I get claustrophobic. My son was a weightlifter and he won a powerlifting competition in Belarus. I had to fly 14 hours. I had to fly home 14 hours. I had vertigo for a month. I couldn't even lay down, the house was spinning. I am hoping I don't get vertigo. I'm not a great traveler. I'll be honest with you, I hate it. I'm not good. I'm concerned. I'm more worried about that than our goal-line offense right now."

The Raiders went on to lose 27-3 to the Seahawks. 

As my editor R.J. White noted on Wednesday, "the favorite in all London games is 15-9 against the spread. Teams that are favored by more than a field goal, as the Bears are expected to be at close, are 9-4."

Bears win big.

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3. Patriots -15.5 at Redskins

Yeah, that's a ton of points, but have you noticed just how much better the Patriots are than the Redskins? The Patriots are first in DVOA and boast a plus-95 point differential while the Redskins sit at 29th in DVOA and own a negative-52 point differential. 

You might be quick to point out that the Patriots have had the luxury of beating up the Dolphins and Jets -- by a combined margin of 59 points -- but that's precisely the point. The Patriots know how to destroy terrible football teams, which is exactly what the Redskins are.

Tom Brady is coming off a dismal outing against a great Bills defense that left him frustrated. By passer rating (45.9), it was the fifth-worst start of his career. It was actually a similar performance to the one he submitted against the Bills last December, when he finished with a 48.3 passer rating. He rebounded from that outing with 250 yards, four touchdowns, and a 133.8 passer rating against the Jets the following week. If Brady is frustrated or pissed off, he typically plays well.

But this is just as much about the Redskins as it is about the Patriots. 

It doesn't matter who's playing quarterback. Bill Belichick's defense is going to eat up the Redskins. 

4. Bills at Titans Under 38.5

The Bills are awesome defensively, ranking fourth in DVOA and allowing fewer than 16 points per game, and woeful offensively, ranking 28th in DVOA and averaging only 19 points per game. It doesn't matter if it's Josh Allen or Matt Barkley under center. The Bills will continue to struggle to score points because they don't have a quarterback who can consistently complete passes.

The Titans, meanwhile, might be the most confusing team in football. They shellacked the Browns in Week 1, looked inept the following two weeks against the Colts and Jaguars, and then smashed the Falcons last week. What we do know is that their offensive line ranks dead last in pass protection, per Football Outsiders, which should be troublesome against this Bills defense.

This feels like a field goal type of game. I'd rather just take the under.

5. Vikings -5.5 at Giants

I could just copy and paste what I wrote before the Vikings' Week 3 date with the Raiders. By now, we know what the Vikings, with Kirk Cousins, are: a team that is incapable of beating good teams, but knows how to beat up on bad teams. We saw it in Week 3 when they trounced the Raiders and in Week 4 when they got flattened by the Bears. The Giants are not a good team, even if Daniel Jones has reinvigorated them. 

Cousins' struggles against winning teams have been documented to death, but he's going up against a bad Giants defense. This feels like the perfect bounceback game after the Bears' defense induced yet another nightmare out of him, and Mike Zimmer's defense should feast on a rookie quarterback. As Will Brinson noted in his Week 5 picks, "rookie QBs are just 2-6 against Zimmer's defenses in Minnesota and quarterbacks under the age of 25 against Zimm's defenses are just 12-24 (non-division 8-18) since 2014."

It kinda feels like the Bears broke the Vikings last week, but the Vikings will get the perfect opportunity to rebound in Week 5. I think they'll take it. Vikings beat up on a bad team because it's just what they're built to do.