NFL: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
USATSI

Unfortunately we couldn't follow up our great week with another great week. The Jacksonville Jaguars fell back to earth, we lost on the hook with the Minnesota Vikings, and the Kansas City Chiefs struggled with the Las Vegas Raiders. Shoutout to the Tennessee Titans, though. They are 3-0 straight-up and against-the-spread after starting the season 0-2. Unfortunately we can't ride them again here. Stupid bye weeks.

But in all seriousness, the Week 6 slate of games is absolutely incredible. Bill Belichick takes on his former team in the Cleveland Browns, the Dallas Cowboys will attempt to hand the Philadelphia Eagles their first loss of the season and we get to enjoy Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes! This may be the best week yet. 

Let's take a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Top five picks ATS record: 9-16
Overall ATS record: 36-43-1
Straight up record: 46-33-1

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

If I'm being honest, I hate making the Jets a best bet. But this line is too big! The Packers may eventually turn into a contender at some point in the year, but they have looked terrible over the past two weeks. The Packers allowed rookie Bailey Zappe to take them to overtime at Lambeau Field, and then Aaron Rodgers and Co. blew a 17-3 lead to the New York Giants in London. Now, they have to play football without a bye week after their disappointing overseas vacation! 

I am not a Zach Wilson believer yet, but he does look better compared to last season. It's no secret that the Jets are carried by their ground game. Michael Carter scored two touchdowns last week vs. the Miami Dolphins, and Breece Hall set a Jets rookie record with 197 scrimmage yards. Despite dropping 40 points, New York didn't record a passing touchdown last Sunday! 

I'm not calling for an upset, but I'll take the points. 

The pick: Jets +7.5
Projected score: Packers 24-20

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Miami Dolphins

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

The Dolphins are on a two-game losing streak, and starting a third-string quarterback who lost 40-17 to the Jets last week. While he played virtually the whole game, this is technically seventh-round pick Skylar Thompson's first career start. There have been five starts since 2000 by rookie quarterbacks drafted in the seventh round. They are 0-5 SU and ATS.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are on a three-game winning streak. A big reason why is that Minnesota is outscoring teams 37-14 in the fourth quarter, and that +23 is the fourth-best score differential in the NFL. I'm not sure the Vikings are Super Bowl contenders, but I love Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. Jefferson leads all receivers with 547 yards and is coming off of a 154-yard performance, and then this weekend is very special for Cook. The Vikings star running back grew up in Miami, and is going to have "a lot of supporters" at this matchup, per SI.com. He said this weekend is "what I dreamed about," so expect a big game from him. I like getting this number at three points.

The pick: Vikings -3
Projected score: Vikings 23-17

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-10)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

The Panthers fired head coach Matt Rhule this week, and that itself will be enough for bettors to take Carolina to cover the spread. Per Action Network, 32 teams have fired their coaches during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 17-15 ATS the very next game -- which is actually impressive considering they compiled a 37.5-percent cover rate prior to the coaches being fired. But here's the difference with the Panthers: they are starting their third-string quarterback who is probably just on the team because of the coach that got fired.

Yes, P.J. Walker is actually 2-0 as a starting quarterback despite recording a passer rating below 80 in each game. His last win came last year, in Cam Newton's famous "I'm back!" game. The Panthers are an NFL-worst 3-16 SU and ATS over the last 19 contests, and this game is across the country in L.A. I know the Rams haven't been good, but this is a potential bounce-back spot for Sean McVay and Co. If Baker Mayfield was healthy and this game was in Charlotte, this would not be a best bet for me. 

The pick: Rams -10
Projected score: Rams 28-14

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

It's fun to debate which one of these teams is the best in the AFC. To me right now, it's the Bills. They have a higher-ranking offense, higher-ranking passing offense, higher-ranking rushing offense, higher-ranking total defense, higher-ranking passing defense and higher-ranking rushing defense. They are the most complete team on both sides of the ball, and possess the kind of depth that's needed from a Super Bowl contender. 

The Chiefs have shown more inconsistencies through the first five weeks of the regular season than the Bills. They shot themselves in the foot until the appendage fell off against the Indianapolis Colts, and then allowed the one-win Raiders to jump out to a 17-0 lead in Kansas City. As for the Bills, they did mismanage the clock and lose to the Dolphins while short-handed in Week 3, but they've also handed three teams blowout losses. 

Both teams can put up points, and I don't think anyone would be surprised if either side emerges victorious. I think Josh Allen is out for revenge after his defeat last year in the playoffs. I'm gonna ride with the Bills.

The pick: Bills -2.5
Projected score: Bills 37-30

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)

This pick is more about fading the Broncos than it is supporting the Chargers. I don't care that the Broncos had a long week to prepare for this matchup, because their 12-9 overtime loss to the Colts was a blatant FCC violation that should lead to fines for both the NFL and Amazon. A Colts team without Jonathan Taylor may be the worst team in the NFL, and the Broncos lost to them at home.

Russell Wilson has obviously struggled, and now he's dealing with a shoulder issue. The president of Broncos country underwent a procedure where he had an injection in his throwing shoulder. Apparently it was a platelet-rich plasma injection which aims to relieve discomfort in the area. Either way, Wilson ranks No. 14 in the NFL in passing yards (1,254), is tied for No. 23 in passing touchdowns (four) and ranks No. 28 in passing completion percentage (59.4%). His 14.1 off-target percentage this season is the eighth-highest in the NFL, and the Broncos are averaging just 15 points per game -- second-worst in the NFL behind the Colts, who they lost to.

The Chargers defense is not consistent by any means and head coach Brandon Staley boggles my mind at times, but I still like L.A. Justin Herbert and Co. are 4-1 ATS, while Denver is 1-4. 

The pick: Chargers -4.5
Projected score: Chargers 27-20

Other Week 6 picks

Commanders (-1) 21-17 over Bears
Buccaneers 26-20 over Steelers (+8.5)
Ravens 24-20 over Giants (+5.5)
Patriots (+2.5) 24-23 over Browns
Bengals (-1.5) 28-24 over Saints
49ers (-5.5) 21-13 over Falcons
Jaguars (+2) 17-14 over Colts
Seahawks (+2.5) 31-30 over Cardinals
Eagles (-6.5) 28-21 over Cowboys