Arizona Cardinals v New England Patriots
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Another week down and another week on the horizon in the NFL. To be honest, this feels like a tricky week on the betting market with little slam-dunk plays currently sitting out there to be had. That's probably thanks to the Bills, Rams, Vikings, and Eagles all slated for the bye in Week 7. So, with a few of the NFL's elite teams on a break, this is where the boys become men and picks become legendary, which will, of course, begin with my five locks of the week. 

There, we're riding with three favorites and two dogs that may or may not share a stadium in the East Rutherford area. Ready to roll? Let's get to the picks! 

2022 record

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 11-17-2
ATS: 38-53-3
ML: 49-45

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

Saints at Cardinals

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Stream on Prime Video 

Neither one of these quarterbacks play well in prime time. In fact, they stink out loud. Andy Dalton -- the projected starter for New Orleans -- is 6-18 SU and 9-15 ATS in his career in prime time, which is the worst prime-time record since 2000 among eligible quarterbacks. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray is 0-4 SU and ATS in his last four prime-time games. So it looks like we might be in for another snoozer on Thursday night (Sorry, Bezos!). That said, the pay here is the Cardinals, especially with how banged up New Orleans is projected to be. At the receiver spot, the Saints might get Chris Olave back, but Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry appear to be long shots. As does cornerback Marshon Lattimore, which creates a heck of a return for DeAndre Hopkins from his suspension. Murray should also have plenty of time in the pocket as his top-five-ranked offensive line in terms of pressure rate is facing a Saints defense that ranks dead last in the league in that category.  

Projected score: Cardinals 30, Saints 27
The pick: Cardinals -1.5

Bears at Patriots

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN. Streaming: fuboTV

The quarterback situation for New England still seems a bit up in the air between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. That said, they've proven over the last few weeks that they can not only win with Zappe under center but play at a high level offensively. Zappe leads the NFL in passer rating (111.4) and threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns last week against Cleveland. Meanwhile, they're going against a Bears offense that likely won't challenge them much offensively, which creates a horrible matchup as they'll face an emerging Patriots defense that ranks No. 7 in the NFL in DVOA. Chicago has struggled on the road as of late, owning a 1-3-1 ATS record. At home, this has the makings of a double-digit win for Bill Belichick's club.  

Projected score: Patriots 28, Bears 17
The pick: Patriots -7.5

Falcons at Bengals

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox. Streaming: fuboTV

The Falcons have been a bettor's dream through the first six weeks of the season, owning a 6-0 ATS record. They are looking to become just the seventh team to begin the year 7-0 ATS or better since the 1970 merger. However, I believe their strong run to the year will come to an end in Cincinnati. The Bengals currently own the second-longest cover streak in the NFL, covering in their last four games coming into Week 7 and the offense seems to be rounding into form. Since starting the year out 0-2, Joe Burrow has Cincy at 3-1 and has a passer rating of 110, which is third-best in the league over that span. He was also lights out in the second half last week, missing just one of his 12 pass attempts for 174 yards and two touchdowns and a perfect passer rating. If we're getting anything close to that type of Burrow in Week 7, the Falcons don't have the firepower to keep up. The Bengals are also 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. 

Projected score: Bengals 28, Cardinals 21
The pick: Bengals -6

Jets at Broncos

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS. Stream on Paramount+ (free one-month trial)

Russell Wilson is even more banged up than he was heading into Week 6 against the Chargers as he now has a hamstring injury that he's trying to play through. A hobbled Wilson can't be much worse than what we've seen from him so far as the Broncos offense has continued to look stagnant. Even if Denver turns to a backup, it's hard to have much confidence in this group. Meanwhile, the Jets continue to be scrappy and just pulled together a road win over the Packers. They are beating up poor offenses and there seems to be total buy-in with Robert Saleh. One thing that will play a factor for New York in this game is the emergence of Breece Hall. I expect his dominance on the ground against a Denver defense that ranks 18th in the league in DVOA against the run to continue here. 

Projected score: Jets 23, Broncos 21
The pick: Jets +2

Giants at Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox. Streaming: fuboTV

I'll be honest, I'm nervous about this line as it feels like a trap game. The Jaguars have lost three straight and look like a young and inconsistent team, albeit talented. Are they going to click in this game and flash their potential at a pivotal time in their season? It's possible. However, I'm going to ride with Brian Daboll's team until they give me a reason not to. They are 4-0 SU as an underdog this season and Saquon Barkley has been putting together a master class in the backfield. They've also shown an ability to rally in a game, winning three games where they've trailed by 10+ points thus far. There's also a pretty big discrepancy in the quarterbacks' ability to cover in this matchup. Daniel Jones is covering 70% of his road games in his career. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence is 7-16 ATS in his career, which is the worst ATS record of any quarterback in that span (min. 10 starts).

Projected score: Giants 23, Jaguars 21
The pick: Giants +3

Rest of the bunch

Lions at Cowboys
Projected score: Cowboys 33, Lions 23
The pick: Cowboys -7

Colts at Titans
Projected score: Titans 24, Colts 21
The pick: Titans -2.5

Packers at Commanders
Projected score: Packers 23, Commanders 21
The pick: Commanders +5.5

Buccaneers at Panthers
Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 17
The pick: Panthers +11

Browns at Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 30, Browns 23
The pick: Ravens -6.5

Texans at Raiders
Projected score: Raiders 28, Texans 20
The pick: Raiders -7

Seahawks at Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 28, Seahawks 24 
The pick: Seahawks +6.5

Chiefs at 49ers
Projected score: Chiefs 27, 49ers 21
The pick: Chiefs -3

Steelers at Dolphins
Projected score: Dolphins 28, Steelers 20
The pick: Dolphins -7