Sean McVay has Jared Goff cooking and the Rams offense should roll vs. Cowboys

It turns out coaching does matter in the NFL.

When running back Todd Gurley called the Rams' offense -- coached by all-time loser Jeff Fisher at the time -- a "middle-school offense" last December, he was thought to have done so out of frustration. It wasn't considered to be an analytical response to answer the questions behind No. 1 pick Jared Goff's rookie-year struggles and Gurley's own mysterious sophomore slump. But Gurley wasn't that far off with his answer. The Rams' offensive catastrophe was almost entirely related to its scheme. The first three games of the 2017 season is enough proof.

So far, the Rams' offense is torching foes -- they're averaging the seventh-most yards per game (374.3) and the most points per game (35.7) in all of football. Goff looks like Legolas sniping Orcs -- he's first in yards per attempt (10.09) and third in passer rating (118.2). Gurley looks like he's actually wearing a touchdown magnet -- he's tied for the league lead in rushing/receiving touchdowns (six) after scoring six touchdowns over the course of the entire 2016 season.

For all of that, the Rams can thank their new 31-year-old coach, Sean McVay, who replaced Fisher and immediately implemented an offense that caters to its personnel's strengths -- plus, he spells his name the right way. And they can also thank newcomers in receivers Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and left tackle Andrew Whitworth. The Rams' offense received upgrades this offseason in both coaching and personnel.

Watching last year's Rams offense versus this year's unit is like going from watching the "Star Wars" prequels to watching "Rogue One." While we're on the subject, a quick (but totally accurate) ranking of "Star Wars" movies:

"Rogue One"
"The Empire Strikes Back"
"Return of the Jedi" (Ewoks are cool)
"A New Hope"
"The Force Awakens"
Prequels

OK, back to football. McVay -- the former offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins, where he helped turn a mediocre talent, Kirk Cousins, into a $24-million quarterback -- has the Rams rolling. They're 2-1, find themselves in first place in the NFC West, and will head to Dallas for a showdown with the Cowboys on Sunday.

At some point, the Rams will likely come back down to earth. Their offensive explosion, to this point, is at least partly due to matchups against the Colts and 49ers. Looming on the schedule are dates with the Seahawks, Jaguars, Cardinals, Giants, Texans, and Vikings -- all teams that know how to play defense. The Rams likely aren't a playoff team, Goff isn't a legitimate MVP candidate, and Gurley isn't the next David Johnson, but they've all shown enough signs of progress through three games to already consider the season a success. And they're going to the give the Cowboys some issues this weekend -- even if it's the Cowboys who emerge with the win at home.

It starts with the QB

Goff's NFL career began on the sidelines, as he was unable to beat out both Case Keenum and Sean Mannion. When he finally did win the starting job in late November, he did not look like someone who was worthy of the first-overall pick. He sucked and his #DraftTwitter bandwagon -- something I found myself on -- began tumbling down a seemingly unending slope.

Writing off Goff was premature. Check out his numbers from the first three weeks of this season compared to his seven games last season (admittedly, both are tiny sample sizes, but it's all we've got to work with):

	Comp. %	YPA	TD %	INT %	Rating
2016	54.6	5.3	2.4	3.4	63.6
2017	70.4	10.1	6.2	1.2	118.2

Again, it's true that Goff has benefited from matchups with the Colts and 49ers, but let's not penalize him for tearing up bad defenses. That's what good quarterbacks are supposed to do. And don't forget that he also played against the Redskins, a team that just held Raiders quarterback Derek Carr to one of the worst performances of his career.

Goff's been good in part because McVay's creating easy throws with big windows. He's done this by using a ton of play-action:

"The first thing you'll notice, you want plays that start out looking the same that are different -- your run actions, whether it's play-action, or some of your movements, where you're bootlegging him," McVay told Sports Illustrated after Week 1. "Those are the things he's really done a good job with, especially when you take into account the stuff in the preseason where early-down plays, you're running play-actions and movements.

"He's good at it, he's gotten really comfortable with it. And that's where there's a good chance to open up some things down the field."

So far this season, Goff has posted a 104.7 passer rating off play-action, completing 13 of 21 passes for 257 yards, according to Pro Football Focus. By using play-action, the Rams are simplifying the game for Goff. More often than not, Goff has an easy read and an easy throw off a play fake -- like the play above.

McVay has also gotten creative with his play-action to create big-chunk plays.

Below, Goff uses a play-fake to Gurley to set up a screen to Gurley. It's so simple for the quarterback, yet so effective. And it gets the ball to one of the Rams' best playmakers in space.

It's not just play-action. On normal passing plays, Goff's passer rating is 122.9 -- the second-best in football behind Alex Smith of all quarterbacks (drunk season, right?), according to PFF. Even without play-action, Goff's getting open, easy throws.

The touchdown pass below wasn't just an easy throw, it was an easy pre-snap read by Goff. It looks like a run-pass option, so it's up to Goff to decide to hand the ball to Gurley or throw to Watkins. Goff chose to throw the ball likely after realizing the Rams' blockers were outnumbered by the 49ers' defenders in the box and his receivers were isolated in single coverage -- it's two vs. two on the outside. With his offensive line run blocking, Goff fired a quick slant to Watkins.

I don't mean for this to sound like Goff hasn't done anything of value, because he has. Back at Cal during this three college seasons as a starter, Goff loved throwing deep balls down the sideline. That's not an oversimplification. Cal's "Bear Raid" offense ran four verticals up to 40 times a game. Goff's arm talent is never going to blow you away, but one of his strengths is lofting up weighted deep balls down the sideline.

That skill has translated to the NFL this year.

According to PFF, Goff is the league's best deep-ball passer. On passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield, Goff is 9 of 13 for 304 yards, one touchdown, no picks, and a 137.5 passer rating. It's throws like this that make it seem like Goff has a bright future in the league (note the play-action, the pressure and quarterback hit, and Watkins' ability to track the over-the-shoulder pass):

He's also shown the willingness to cycle through his reads. Below, you'll see Goff's eyes work from his right to his far left before finding his tight end on a delayed release all the way back on his right.

To do that, Goff needs protection -- something that didn't happen last year. In his rookie season, Goff was under pressure on 44 percent of his dropbacks, according to PFF. This year, he's been under pressure on 38.4 percent of his dropbacks. It's worth noting that Goff has still dealt with the seventh-highest pressure rate among all quarterbacks, so it's not as if the signing of Whitworth has transformed the Rams' offensive line into a top unit -- it hasn't. But the Rams' offensive line has been better. That's important.

Even when he's under pressure, Goff has been great. He's accumulated the third-best passer rating under pressure (98.9), per PFF. And when he's been given a clean pocket, he's racked up a passer rating of 126.2 -- only Alex Smith has been better without pressure.

If given time in the pocket, Goff is deadly like most NFL quarterbacks.

Impressively, Goff has cut down on his turnovers. Going through all of his passes to this point in the season, there have been very few dropped picks. That's a credit to the coaching, which has drawn up risk-free throws, and Goff's decision making. Obvously, he's still going to make mistakes. See his game-losing interception to the Redskins, when he stared down a short pass for an eternity:

But he has been light years better than last year. The scary part? Goff and McVay are still growing comfortable together, and Goff has started only 10 games in his career, which pretty much makes him a rookie.

"It's the fact that we just haven't worked together long enough," McVay told SI. "We're trying to figure it out ourselves as we get comfortable with one another. That's the biggest thing."

Goff's success should continue against the Cowboys, whose defense features one capable playmaker in defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence and his league-leading 6.5 sacks. The Rams will need to account for Lawrence if they want Goff to remain upright. But besides Lawrence, no one on the Cowboys' defense should scare them. Block Lawrence -- not an easy task -- and the Rams offense should be fine.

The Cowboys' defense has pitched two solid games this year -- Week 1 against the Giants and Week 3 against the Cardinals. The key to those performances? They manhandled weak offensive lines and got after the quarterback. The Rams need to protect Goff. If they can do that, they can torch a weak secondary.

Touchdown Todd

Look for Gurley's success to continue too, but don't expect him to keep scoring touchdowns at this rate.

Last year, Gurley averaged 3.2 yards per carry. This year, he's averaging 3.8 yards per carry. According to PFF, he ranked 19th in elusiveness out of 25 qualified running backs last year. This year, he ranks 18th out of 28 qualified running backs. So Gurley hasn't been transformed back into the rookie-version of himself we saw in 2015, but he's been better. There's no doubt that his unsustainable touchdown rate -- no, he's not going to score 32 touchdowns this year -- will come back down to earth.

But the biggest difference from last year to this year is how Gurley is being used. Mainly, the Rams are getting Gurley into open space by using him as a pass catcher. Last year, Gurley averaged 2.7 catches per game and 7.6 yards per catch. This year, he's averaging 4.3 catches per game and 10.8 yards per catch. When he's in space -- and not bottled up behind a mediocre offensive line -- he can do stuff like this:

In Week 2, C.J. Anderson roasted the Cowboys for 154 yards on 28 touches. Expect Gurley to get the ball a lot and expect him to perform well. The Cowboys have shut down the Cardinals and Giants' running backs, but neither of those teams feature quality players coming out of the backfield. Gurley might not ever be as good as he was in his sensational rookie year, but he's more than capable.

Setting realistic expectations

Again, it's not realistic to expect the Rams to continue scoring 35.7 points per game. It's not realistic to expect Goff to outplay Tom Brady for the rest of the season. And it's not realistic to expect Gurley to score touchdowns at this rate. The Rams are going to calm down when they play defenses that are capable of exploiting their flaws. A regression is coming.

But the Rams should already be pleased at their progress. They likely won't make the playoffs this season, but their future is bright. Last year, it looked like their most recent first-round picks of Goff and Gurley might bust. Now, those two look like potential building blocks. If Watkins can stay healthy, he's a WR1. For so many years, the Rams were stuck as a 7-9 or 8-8 team under Fisher. For the first time in what probably feels like forever, the Rams can dream of a better future that involves an exciting, innovative offense -- an offense that can lead the team into the postseason in the wars to come.

Dallas will get a glimpse of that offense on Sunday. And even if it's the Cowboys that walk away with the win -- they are, after all, the more talented team that's also playing at home -- they'll actually have some difficulty lassoing these high-flying, youthful Rams.