matthew-stafford-4-1400.jpg

Throughout this week, we're working our way through a series here at CBSSports.com wherein our staff members are taking a look at each of the various Super Bowl favorites, and laying out three reasons why they can win the Super Bowl at the end of this season. 

Already this week, Patrik Walker has laid out the case for the Cowboys, Cody Benjamin has put forth the case for the 49ers, and Josh Edwards has dug into the Browns. Elsewhere on the site today, you'll find Tyler Sullivan exploring why the Buccaneers will repeat as champs, Chris Trapasso going in on the Bills, and Bryan DeArdo looking into the Steelers. Tomorrow, we'll have cases made for the Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, and Patriots. 

And in the space below, I'm taking a look at the Los Angeles Rams. 

Defensive stars

The Rams have the benefit of employing both the best front-seven player and the best defensive back in the NFL. We saw former defensive coordinator Brandon Staley find new and creative ways last year to use those two chess pieces to wreak havoc on opposing offenses, and it seems highly likely that his replacement, Raheem Morris, will employ many of the same tactics. 

Aaron Donald is a game-wrecking menace the likes of which have scarcely been seen in NFL history. He is the best defensive player in the league until further notice, someone wholly incapable of being blocked and/or kept out of the backfield. He ranked first among all interior defensive linemen in both 2019 and 2020 in my Weighted Overall Win Rating metric, which measures how much more often than the league average player at his position a player creates a play behind the line of scrimmage (sack, hit, hurry, run stop), adjusted so that pass-rush is more important than run defense. 

Ramsey was already wildly effective as a shadow corner, but Staley moving him into the slot (or "star") role last season just put him in position to make even more plays. Morris should continue to use him all over the field. If the opponent's No. 1 threat is a perimeter threat like DK Metcalf, Ramsey should follow him. If it's a slot receiver like Keenan Allen, Ramsey should follow him. If it's a tight end like Darren Waller, Ramsey should follow him. If it's just the quick-passing game in general or the zone rushing attack, Ramsey should play up near the line of scrimmage so he can be involved in everything. 

The combined force of those two stars will keep the Rams among the top defenses in the NFL once again, and their ability to make splash plays always has the potential to swing a game -- any game -- in L.A.'s favor. 

The Rams upgraded at quarterback but now have major questions at running back after Cam Akers' Achilles injury. Can Los Angeles still get it done in the rugged NFC West? Stay dialed-in on the CBS Sports app to get the latest news and analysis. If you already have the CBS Sports app, favorite the Rams so you're always in the know.

Quarterback upgrade

Over the last four seasons, the Rams went 43-21, good for the fifth-best record in the NFL. And they did that with a quarterback who very clearly did not have the confidence of his head coach for a significant portion of that run. That won't be the case after they traded Jared Goff and draft picks for Matthew Stafford, who is Sean McVay's handpicked successor to run the offense. 

Stafford is an upgrade over Goff in several key areas, but most notable among them are deep passing and arm strength, and out-of-structure playmaking. 

Goff was just 79 of 220 on passes at least 20 yards downfield over the last four years, per Tru Media and Pro Football Focus tracking, for 2,715 yards, 13 touchdowns and nine interceptions. That's an 86.1 passer rating that ranked 19th among 41 qualified quarterbacks. Goff's 0.39 EPA per pass attempt on those throws ranked 20th. Stafford, meanwhile, went 99 of 241 for 3,503 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, with a 107.1 passer rating that ranked seventh among the aforementioned 41 qualified passers. His 0.79 EPA per pass attempt ranked second. And he was working with worse weapons than Goff. 

Stafford also fared far better both under pressure and against the blitz than did Goff, who routinely had problems creating plays that weren't directly schemed up for him. (Stafford's 78.7 passer rating and -0.23 EPA per pass attempt under pressure dwarfed Goff's 60.6 and -0.40 marks. Neither are necessarily ideal figures, but they're not outright disasters.) Stafford's freelance ability will also allow the Rams to be a bit less obvious with their pre-snap plans. A game against the Dolphins last season exemplified some of the issues the Rams had with Goff -- namely, that it was difficult for him to execute their play-action passing game out of shotgun formations, so the Rams basically just didn't ask him to.

The Dolphins sent a blitz after Jared Goff on 51 percent of his shotgun snaps, a rate that far exceeds their normal blitz share. Why'd they do that? Well, because the Rams pass the ball 89 percent of the time they're in shotgun, per PFF and Tru Media. The Dolphins knew that went the Rams went to the gun, it was almost certain to be a pass. So they sent large numbers after the quarterback and forced him to make quick decisions. It did not go well for L.A. 

None of those things will be issues with Stafford. The upgrade here is real, and it should help get the offense back toward the top of the league. 

5 Percent Theory

A few years back, Philadelphia 76ers president Daryl Morey, who was then the general manager of the Houston Rockets, espoused his views on what Zach Lowe called the 5 Percent Theory.

"If you've got even a 5 percent chance to win the title -- and that group includes a very small number of teams every year -- you've gotta be focused all on winning the title," Morey said. 

Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban echoed Morey's sentiment. "One sprained toe or two, and the competitive landscape changes. You don't want to miss that opportunity. You should always put the best team you can on the floor within the parameters you have set for yourself."

The Rams have been firmly in the group of teams with a 5 percent or better chance to win the Super Bowl for the entirely of their four-year run under McVay. But these eras don't last forever. The Rams know they have a window that is one day closer to closing, every day, and they are very much all-in. It's tough to think of a team that is more all-in on right now than the Rams. 

They keep trading draft picks for players who are ready to help them win right the heck now. They are trying to maximize their contention window right at this moment. If there is an opportunity to make yet another move that would increase their chances even a little bit, they will surely make it.