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  • expert headshot
    Mike Tierney
    +273
    (67%)
    6-3 in Last 9 NCAAF O/U Picks
    Over 43.5
    -110
    Over/Under
    Picked: Dec 22 @ 12:48pm

    Analysis

    Welcome to the smallest total of the season for Louisville -- by a couple of points. Only three others were south of 50, one barely at 49.5. Odd since Toledo owns the most potent offense in the MAC, and both sides wield productive QBs -- Tucker Gleason for the Rockets, Mitch Moss for Louisville. Under coach Jeff Brohm, the two Cardinals bowl games were points explosions -- 70 and 69 points. Under a south Florida sun with weather conducive for scoring, this number could be caught by third quarter's end.
  • expert headshot
    Jeff Hochman
    #2
    +582
    (68%)
    13-6 in Last 19 NHL ML Picks
    OTT
    -143
    Money Line
    Picked: Dec 22 @ 11:06am

    Analysis

    The Buffalo Sabres have seemingly dominated the Ottawa Senators in their last five matchups, going 5-0 despite being outshot in every game (177-128 overall, including 37-27 in their 8-4 victory in October). Buffalo capitalized on special teams, scoring three power-play goals, one shorthanded goal, and one empty-netter. The Senators are ranked second in shots against—including first in limiting high-danger chances—and own a +89 shot differential. Buffalo ranks just 21st and has a -50 differential. Ottawa also ranks second in face-off win percentage, while Buffalo ranks 32nd. My power ratings have Ottawa nine spots higher. I like the home team in this spot.
  • expert headshot
    Mike Tierney
    +155
    (57%)
    8-6 in Last 14 NCAAF Picks
    UNLV -5
    -114
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 17 @ 1:39pm

    Analysis

    Head coaches come and go during the bowl season but rarely like this one. Ohio canned Brian Smith for undisclosed but "serious professional misconduct." That's got to throw a team off course. Smith had helped the Bobcats extend their SU bowl win streak last season to a half-dozen. Now they must recalibrate. UNLV has been nearly golden on the money line as favorites, going 9-1. With QB Anthony Colandrea cooking and the bowl-experienced Dan Mullen coaching, the Rebels need not outscore Ohio by much to bring home an ATS win.
  • expert headshot
    Bruce Marshall
    +435
    (55%)
    50-41-3 in Last 94 NCAAF Picks
    OHIO +7
    -115
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 23 @ 1:56am

    Analysis

    Plenty of distractions at Ohio where HC Brian Smith has been relieved of duties and DC John Hauser takes over on an interim basis. Sources say this will be an audition of sorts in Frisco for Hauser to land the full-time job...stay tuned. In the meantime, apparently no opt-outs of note for the Bobcats, meaning top weapons QB Parker Navarro & RB Sieh Bangura will feature, and remember that Ohio has won six straight bowls. UNLV will be a test as the Rebs have an explosive offense led by dual-threat Virginia transfer QB Anthony Colandrea, and no opt-outs of note, but UNLV's defense had trouble slowing balanced foes, and this spread is not insignificant. Play Ohio (Scooter's Coffee Bowl at Frisco)
  • expert headshot
    Jeff Hochman
    +542
    (63%)
    10-6 in Last 16 NCAAF ATS Picks
    HAWAII +1.5
    -110
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 18 @ 1:08am

    Analysis

    Hawaii’s coaching staff is steady, while Cal’s is unsettled. Timmy Chang has turned Hawaii around, going from three wins in 2022 to 8-4 this season. Against other bowl teams, Hawaii nearly matched its opponents in yardage, while Cal struggled, being outgained by 54 yards per game. Special teams is a big advantage for Hawaii: they convert 95.6% of field goals (Cal just 73.3%) and rank 26th in punting (Cal is 125th). The Rainbow Warriors are better on both lines, rank 3rd in red-zone scoring compared to Cal’s 73rd, and the strength of schedule is closer than you might think. The home team has a +3.6 point differential, while Cal is -4.7. My model has Hawaii winning 62.1% of the time, even without WR Jackson Harris.

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