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  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +256
    (71%)
    5-2 in Last 7 NBA Picks
    IND +4
    -110
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 18 @ 1:35am

    Analysis

    I believe in intangibles. Played low-level basketball and even there after a big win, it was Letdown City. Course, my rival was Cub Scout Pack 104 (I was in 103, obviously the superior), but you get the point. This feels like one of the biggest letdown games of the season for any NBA team much less the Knicks, who had to play an extra game that does not count Tuesday in winning the NBA Cup and got paid $500K+ each for winning it -- and not putting up the banner at MSG, which I find funny (nor should they). So a bunch of young guys spent a long weekend in Vegas and suddenly came into money. Does that ever end well? It's called "the Hangover."
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +103
    (60%)
    3-2 in Last 5 NCAAB Picks
    CCTST
    -198
    Money Line
    Picked: Dec 18 @ 7:07am

    Analysis

    Big number, yes, but I think it should be -250 if the right CCSU team shows up -- so I'll go ahead and bet to win on this. The Blue Devils already own wins at power schools Boston College and Rutgers. Not saying those are Final Four teams, but pretty impressive for an NEC school. And CCSU is 3-0 at home, scoring triple digits in each. Granted, against teams like Godolkin U (actually they might be invincible), Charmin College (the Softies) and Beefaroni State (want one of those T-shirts). When scoring 70+ points under coach Patrick Sellers, who has built a nice program, CCSU is 26-1 in its past 27. Fairfield allows 75.5 and has surrendered at least 70 in all but one road game.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    #2
    +772
    (67%)
    24-12-5 in Last 41 NHL ATS Picks
    MON -1
    -122
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 18 @ 7:44am

    Analysis

    Can't deny that I've been in a bit of an NHL malaise for about 10 days, but boy did we get a gift in the Blackhawks' last game when they blew a 2-0 third-period lead and lost 3-2 in Toronto for a third straight defeat. I'll have to fade Chicago almost daily as long as Connor Bedard is out (two total goals in two games without) as it's not a great offensive team even with the former No. 1 overall pick. Montreal runs super hot and cold, so we have to hope for the former. The Habs won 3-2 in Chicago on Oct. 11 and a similar score/push would not surprise here, but maybe we get lucky. I think regulation is fine.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +69.5
    (60%)
    9-6 in Last 15 NBA Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    Z. Williamson
    Over 17.5
    -125
    Points
    Picked: Dec 18 @ 8:02am

    Analysis

    Zion was limited to 27 minutes in his return from (another) injury on Sunday in Chicago and came off the bench but still scored 18. I'd expect him to start tonight and get at least 30 minutes. Our model has him at 22.1 points. I know Kevin Durant is one of Williamson's idols, so he should be duly motivated against KD. I never say I love a prop because it can be not relevant at all to the game result and obviously injuries, foul trouble can happen. But this does seem low to me.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #4
    +1197
    (64%)
    35-20 in Last 55 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    R. Shaheed
    Over 32.5
    -116
    Receiving Yards
    Picked: Dec 16 @ 11:07am

    Analysis

    DraftKings. It took a few weeks for Rashid Shaheed to get up to speed in Seattle, but he’s registered 67 and 74 receiving yards the last two weeks, on twelve total targets. In those two games, he has a 23.8% first read rate (10 total targets, per FantasyPoints). It’s a fantastic matchup against the Rams defense - LA has been a funnel to outside receivers, allowing the fourth most receiving yards per game (122.3), on the ninth highest yards per route run (2.10) to pass catchers aligned out wide. Shaheed is out wide for 74% of his snaps as a Seahawk, and should be able to cash in against the soft zone coverage. I’d bet this up to over 37.5 receiving yards.

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