Bracketology: Florida State lasts one day as No. 1 seed, Kansas the beneficiary
UCLA also fell to a No. 3 seed after being upset at USC, and Creighton is drowning
It has been a tough week to be a highly rated team. Tuesday gave us three teams ranked in the top four of the AP top 25 losing -- Villanova, Kansas and Kentucky -- which hadn't happened since 1979. Wednesday saw three more highly rated teams get upset, all on the road.
Florida State, which had moved up to a No. 1 seed in the bracket just the night before, got annihilated at Georgia Tech by a score of 78-56. The game wasn't as close as the score would indicate. Coming off a difficult stretch of their schedule, this was an obvious trap game for the Seminoles, but this was more like stepping in a bear trap and falling into quicksand at the same time.
FSU still has a very good resume, so its fall down the bracket wasn't precipitous. You can't overreact to one game, especially when it's just one out of 20 or so. The Seminoles are a 2-seed this morning, while Kansas, which just lost on Tuesday, is back up to the top line as the fourth No. 1 seed.
There is one circumstance though where a slight overreaction to one game is appropriate, and that is the one Creighton finds itself in. The Bluejays lost 71-51 at Georgetown last night to fall to 0-2 since the injury to PG Maurice Watson, Jr. It is a small sample size, but Creighton is obviously struggling to replace Watson's productivity. The Bluejays may turn things around still, and there is plenty of time to do so, but for now, they are down from a 2-seed to a four. While that seems like a reaction to one game, it is really a reaction to two.
UCLA also lost again, this time at cross-town rival USC. It was a huge win for the Trojans, which didn't have a win of anywhere near that quality so far this season. It's a big boost for them as they head into an especially difficult part of their schedule.
It was also the second loss in a row for the Bruins. UCLA is still living off of its win at Kentucky, but is now 1-3 against the RPI top 50. The Bruins have three other wins over bottom of the at-large pool teams and no bad losses, so it's not a bad resume for this time of year, but they could really use another higher quality win or two. UCLA fell one line in the bracket to a 3-seed this morning.
The bottom of the bracket was impacted by last night's games too. Most notably, Georgia Tech has crawled in as an 11-seed. The Yellow Jackets have a poor-man's version of Indiana's profile. The Hoosiers have a couple of home run wins over Kansas and North Carolina, a couple of questionable losses to Nebraska at home and at IPFW, and a high number of games against some of the lowest-rated teams in Division I. They are just 6-6 against the top 200 teams in the RPI, which is generally not a good thing.
Georgia Tech has a couple of home run wins over FSU and UNC, a couple of questionable losses at home to Georgia and Ohio, and a high number of games against some of the lowest-rated teams in D-I. The difference is that the Yellow Jackets are just 12-8 overall, which is the bare minimum record in terms of games above .500 to have a chance to get into the bracket. They are just 6-8 against the RPI top 200. So, while those big wins have pushed Georgia Tech into the field for now, its margin for error is very small.
Ohio State also claimed a spot in the field with a win over Minnesota at home last night. The Buckeyes have the final spot in the bracket, so obviously their position is far from secure. They have wins over the Gophers and Michigan State, but are just 2-7 against the top 50 and have a home loss to Florida Atlantic. They have a long way to go before they can start thinking about being in the bracket in March.
















