NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Wake Forest in for nervous Selection Sunday
Also, Syracuse is likely headed for the NIT
By
Jerry Palm
•
6 min read
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With the NCAA Tournament selection committee starting its five-day process Wednesday and conference tournament action heating up, there are four games today you can bet will capture the committeeâs attention. The first one was Syracuse vs. Miami in the ACC tournament, and it did not go well for the Orange.
Below we also break down a full bubble list of whoâs likey in, on the fence, and out at the moment.
Wednesdayâs bubble games
Miami 62, Syracuse 57
The Orange did what the Orange do -- lose away from Carrier Dome. Syracuse finishes the season a woeful 2-11 away from home after losing to the Hurricanes. If the tournament could be played on home courts, the Orange would be a No. 1 seed. Oh, wait ... there is one played on home courts: the NIT. That is likely the postseason destination for Syracuse now.
Virginia Tech 99, Wake Forest 90
Wake Forest finished the season well with wins over Louisville and at Virginia Tech in their final two regular-season games. The Demon Deacons lost the rematch in the ACC tournament but still have a chance to play in the NCAAs. Wake Forest played a strong schedule and picked up eight top-100 wins, including four on the road. They are also without a bad loss. Selection Sunday will be nervous for Wake, but the Deacons have a chance.
California 62, Oregon State 57
Cal did what it had to do, although the Bears were not all that impressive in doing so. The Bearsâ tournament hopes are likely on the line Thursday against Utah. Cal only has four top-100 wins, and while one of those is at USC, they really need more to feel comfortable.
Xavier 75, DePaul 64
Xavier needed wins any way it could get them and the Musketeers got them against DePaul. Two wins over the Blue Demons have given the Musketeers some cushion as they face Butler in the next round. A win against the Bulldogs makes Xavier a lock, but they may get in even with a loss.
Probably in
The Rams have been pretty good at home, but they have a couple of bad losses away from home, including at Fordham and a blowout to Illinois. They fought back to make the game at Dayton close, but could not get over the hump. Unfortunately, VCU cannot play Rhode Island or Dayton until the final of the Atlantic 10 tournament.
Arkansas was in serious trouble following a loss at Missouri and a big home loss to Vandy. The Hogs have come back to life though with a win at South Carolina, their first over a likely tournament team, as part of a stretch of six wins in seven games. Arkansas should be OK if they can avoid a bad loss.
The Friars finished the regular season winning six straight games to put themselves into the bracket. If they can avoid a fourth bad loss, they likely will remain.
Marquette has some good wins (notably a home win over Villanova), but a lot of losses. The Golden Eagles didnât play a very good non-conference schedule and are paying for that a little bit. Marquette finished well though and is one win away from getting off this list.
On the fence
The Spartans picked up a big win over Wisconsin and have won four out of five. However, all four wins came at home. They have not been a good team away from home. They were more competitive at Illinois and Maryland, but still fell short. The Spartans may not survive a three-game losing streak at the end of the season.
We welcome Xavier to the bubble, although now that I say that, no team that once appeared to be comfortably in wants to be welcomed here. The Musketeers are tanking. They lost six in a row to fall to 18-12, but stopped that skid at DePaul. They get the Blue Demons to open the Big East tournament. They need the same result.
No bubble team had a better week than Wake, which beat Louisville and won at Virginia Tech. That helps to fill a couple of big holes in the Demon Deaconsâ resume, but Wake is not out of the woods yet.
The Wildcats beat Texas Tech for their first two-game winning streak in more than a month. K-State does not really need quality wins, but their prospects would be a lot brighter if they could repeat their upset of Baylor in the Big 12 tournament.
The Bears have only four top 100 wins, including one at USC, and a questionable loss to San Diego State. They need to add to the quality win count in the conference tournament. They are coming off a dismal road trip which saw them lose at Utah and Colorado.
The Rams have four top 100 wins after a much needed win over VCU at home. Now, the Rams need to avoid giving that away, which they tried to do against Davidson. They already have two bad losses at home and nothing but potential bad losses left deep into the conference tournament.
The Illini have some nice, if not great wins, but a mediocre record against better competition. Their best wins are a sweep of Northwestern and they pounded VCU. However, they are only 18-13 after a loss to Rutgers. They will have to do some work at the Big Ten tournament.
The Orange are no lock. While they can beat anyone at home, the tournament is not played on home courts and Syracuse is only 2-10 away from the Carrier Dome. Even with wins over Duke, Florida State and Virginia, they have an RPI in the high 70s. That is not a good sign. Syracuse has hope, but could use a run in the ACC tournament.
Teams are usually on the bubble because I think they have some shot at an at-large bid. Vanderbilt does not really meet that standard. The Commodores are trying to become the first team to get an at-large bid with 15 losses. They definitely have some nice wins, including a sweep of Florida, but if they donât beat the Gators again in the SEC tournament, the Commodores wonât even be four games above .500. Historically speaking, that is the minimum mark to get an at-large bid.
Probably out
The Redbirds won a share of the Missouri Valley title, which in most seasons would mean they did enough to earn an at-large bid, if necessary. That is not the case this season, with the league at its lowest point in more than a decade. Illinois State has only two top 100 wins, which usually is not enough. They also have a couple bad losses, including a real clunker at Murray State.
In 2013, the Raiders became one of the least-deserving teams ever to receive an at-large bid with only one RPI top 100 win. They are already in better shape now, with four this season. Two of them are over other non-major conference leaders, but none over likely at-large teams. They also have a home loss to Tennessee State and at real clunker at UTEP. There is little margin for error playing a C-USA schedule.
Nevada won the Mountain West regular-season title has five top 100 wins, but has not beaten a sure tournament team. In fact, they have played only one and got blown out at St. Maryâs. The Wolf Pack have a handful of bad losses, and that may be too many, so they cannot take another one.
The Hawkeyes have climbed to 18-13 overall and have pretty nice wins, including at home over Big Ten champ Purdue. They also won on the road at Maryland and Wisconsin, part of a four-game winning streak to end the regular season. Iowa also has a couple of bad losses to Memphis and Nebraska-Omaha. They could get another shot at the Badgers, but have to beat Indiana first.
