College football mailbag: How Ohio State and Michigan could both make the playoff

It may be a long shot, but there's a path to seeing two Big Ten teams in the College Football Playoff

I'm a Michigan fan and excited about this season, which probably comes down to the Ohio State game. Do you see a scenario where Michigan could lose to Ohio State and still get in the playoff? -- John B.

Ah, premature playoff talk! It's that time of year when we spell out hundreds of scenarios that likely will never happen.

Sure, that could happen for Michigan, if the right breaks occur. The College Football Playoff selection committee favors conference champions, but a non-champion can get in if it's considered clearly one of the top four teams. Let's assume for this scenario the Big 12 doesn't get a team in the playoff and Alabama is the SEC representative. (That's just the easiest scenario to describe, but it's certainly not the only one.) If Michigan plays competitively against Ohio State and the Wolverines' body of work looks like a top-four team, they could get be invited ... but they'll probably need help.

Every ACC Coastal team already has at least two losses so Michigan would be helped if the Atlantic champion (right now, it looks like Clemson) loses in the ACC Championship Game. Clemson is turnover-happy enough at the moment for that to happen. Another possibility is if the Pac-12 champion has two losses. I suspect a one-loss Washington that wins the Pac-12 would get in over a one-loss Michigan that doesn't win its division.

The Wolverines could be helped incredibly if Colorado (5-2) somehow wins the Pac-12 South and upsets Washington at the Pac-12 Championship Game. Michigan beat Colorado 45-28 on Sept. 17. Ohio State may have the easier path to reach the playoff as a one-loss team given its road wins at possible Big 12 champion Oklahoma and top-10 Wisconsin. Michigan beat Wisconsin in a home game the Wolverines controlled more than Ohio State's win over the Badgers. The committee loves road wins.

Then consider this scenario: What if the Ohio State/Michigan winner LOSES the Big Ten Championship Game? And what if that loss comes against a two-loss Wisconsin that runs the table from here on out? Wisconsin would have a compelling case (wins over LSU, Nebraska, Big Ten East champion, tight losses to Ohio State and Michigan) to be the first two-loss team in the playoff.

We've been here before with Ohio State/Michigan postseason talk. They came close to a rematch in 2006 for the BCS championship after the No. 1 Buckeyes beat the No. 2 Wolverines 42-39 to end the regular season. Urban Meyer, then Florida's coach, argued it would be unfair to Ohio State and the country for a rematch. "If that does happen, all the (university) presidents need to get together immediately and put together a playoff system," Meyer said in 2006. "I mean like now, January or whenever to get that done."

The rematch didn't happen. The SEC got its own rematch with Alabama and LSU five years later, quickly leading to the development of the playoff. Eventually, a team that doesn't win its conference will get in the playoff. It's impossible to say yet if that's this year. Bottom line: Ohio State-Michigan on Nov. 26 can't come soon enough for a monster showdown and so hypothetical scenarios can look a lot clearer.

With the Big 12 not expanding, didn't it just write its obituary? How can it possibly survive three to five years from now? -- Dave G.

The Big 12 poorly handled the process to explore expansion. By creating a dog-and-pony show for desperate Group of Five schools, the Big 12 wasted a whole lot of people's time and money. Ultimately, though, the Big 12 might have reached the right decision by not expanding. Nothing changed for the past two years. There were no slam-dunk candidates that would significantly increase the Big 12's value in order to expand.

That said, adding or not adding teams likely doesn't decide the Big 12's fate either way. It's all about keeping Texas and Oklahoma happy and in the fold around 2025, when the Big 12's current TV deal and Grant of Rights expire. The Big 12's fate rests in showing Texas and Oklahoma why it's better to stay in a regional conference than going off to greener pastures. Because if they leave, a whole lot of Big 12 schools look like Group of Five schools, not Power Five schools.

Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports had a smart column on this topic by arguing the Big 12 needs to push for an eight-team playoff. That would allow the Big 12 an annual spot in the playoff and give Texas and Oklahoma easier access to the national championship than in any other conference. They would get to stay in their region with built-in advantages and avoid fighting uphill battles by competing in somebody else's backyard. Now, I have concerns about an eight-team playoff based on player welfare. But strategically, the idea makes a lot of sense for the Big 12 to pursue.

Without the unfair advantage of being ranked high in the preseason polls, is there any chance Ole Miss is ranked today with three losses? -- Bo K.

No. Ole Miss is an example of how the past continues to influence the present. I'll qualify this by saying the Rebels may be the best three-loss team in the country. They lost big leads while dropping games to No. 13 Florida State and No. 1 Alabama, and lost close to No. 17 Arkansas.

Yet the Rebels, who are ranked 23rd in the AP Top 25 poll, only have wins over Wofford, Georgia and Memphis. If someone has three losses and is still ranked at the halfway point, I expect a better win than any of those. Ole Miss started the season ranked No. 11 and hasn't shown it's still worthy of being in the top 25.

The good news is these polls don't really matter for postseason consideration. But they do matter to up-and-coming teams that would like a little attention. If I'm South Florida or Colorado, I'm scratching my head at why some SEC schools (Ole Miss, Auburn, LSU) so easily return or stay in the top 25 without any substantive wins on their resume.

How much of a chance do you think Auburn has of stopping Austin Allen? I don't see them holding Arkansas to less than 30 points. -- Lance D.

Auburn-Arkansas is an intriguing game Saturday that should tell us a lot more about both teams. Even when the Tigers' offense has struggled this year, the defense has shined. Right now, Auburn is ranked No. 11 nationally in scoring defense (16 points per game) and allowing its fewest total yards per game (346.8) since 2008.

Arkansas' balance with Allen (leads the SEC in touchdown passes) and Rawleigh Williams III (the SEC's second-leading rusher) will challenge Auburn. Allen has been very impressive. Auburn had a bye week before this Arkansas game, which could either help or hurt. I'll predict this is a game played in the high 20s/early 30s for the final score. Auburn will need to score some itself to win.

Got a question for Jon Solomon's College Football Mailbag? Contact him via email at solomonjt2003@yahoo.com or Twitter @JonSolomonCBS.