usatsi-24377797-1-1.jpg
USATSI

The New York Liberty are in a major slump, as they've lost six of their past nine games since starting off the season 9-0. The Liberty just haven't been the same without Jonquel Jones, who is still sidelined with an ankle injury. But New York looks to bounce back at home, where the Liberty will host the Las Vegas Aces tonight at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. Will A'ja Wilson be able to dominate inside like she did in an earlier meeting this season, when she went off for 31 points and 16 rebounds?

Interested in WNBA betting? What about WNBA props? Before you make any bets of your own, you need to see what WNBA experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai have to say about Tuesday's Aces vs. Liberty matchup.

Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com -- a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women's game. Wetzel, the site's lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women's hoops to turn the site's prediction model into picks. Wetzel and Barzilai went 202-111-2 (+57.9 units) during the 2024 WNBA season and posted a 147-88-1 (+47.1 units) during the 2024-25 NCAA season. In the 2023 WNBA season, they finished 238-185-1 (+29.5 units).

Here are Barzilai and Wetzel's top Sparks-Fever picks for Tuesday, July 8:

  • Liberty -4.5 (-110)
  • A'ja Wilson Under 10.5 rebounds (-132)

Liberty -4.5

Both of these teams have been struggling lately, although the Aces did get a bounce-back win at Connecticut their last time out. However, they will be playing their fourth straight road game in this one—they haven't been at home since June 26—and this looks like a spot where that is likely to catch up to them.

New York won the season opener by 14 over Vegas, and while this Liberty team without Jonquel Jones looks a lot more vulnerable than that team did, they still should have the upper hand on their home floor. Take the Liberty in a rivalry matchup.

A'ja Wilson Under 10.5 rebounds

While Wilson did have 16 rebounds in that season-opening loss to the Liberty, she's only cleared this line in four of her 14 games since then. Now, as the Aces continue to integrate new acquisition NaLyssa Smith into the lineup, Wilson's rebound opportunities should only start to decrease.

Wilson had three rebounds in Smith's first game in the starting lineup, and while that came in just 24 minutes due to a blowout, that's far below a double-digit pace. The Liberty are a great matchup to rebound against, but this line is adjusted too far for that, so take the under at 10.5.