IMAGN Images

The Detroit Tigers have already raced out to a 10.5-game lead in the AL Central and one of the most exciting young rosters in baseball will be highlighted on Sunday Night Baseball. The Tigers host the Twins this evening with Detroit sending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal to the mound, while Minnesota will counter with Chris Paddack. Skubal pitching almost always drives down the total in the MLB odds and Sunday will be no different, with most sportsbooks listing the over/under at 7 runs for Tigers vs. Twins.

However, Paddack has given up 16 earned runs on his own over his last three starts, and Skubal gave up four earned runs in his last outing. That's a big reason why the model is including over 7 runs for Twins vs. Tigers in its MLB parlay picks on Sunday. Before making any MLB picks or building any MLB parlay picks, you'll want to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer simulation model and also check out the latest DraftKings promo code, BetMGM promo code and Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 14 of the 2025 MLB season on a profitable 41-32 run on top-rated MLB picks. It has excelled making home run prop picks this season, entering Sunday returning more than 21 units of profit. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

The model has broken down the MLB odds for Sunday and just revealed its top MLB picks. Combining the model's three picks into an MLB parlay at FanDuel would result in a payout of +803 (risk $100 to win $803). New users can even take advantage of the FanDuel promo code offering $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.

Here are its best bets for the MLB slate on Sunday

  • Cubs money line over the Astros (+132)
  • Nationals money line over the Angels (+115)
  • Over 7 total runs in Twins vs. Tigers (-115)
  • Combine these picks for a shot at a +803 payout at FanDuel (odds subject to change)  

Cubs money line over the Astros (+132)

Only the Dodgers have scored more runs this season than the Cubs, and that offense stacked up 12 runs in a win over Houston on Saturday. Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki all went yard for Chicago, and the model is expecting a bounceback after a couple of rough outings from Jameson Taillon. He had a 3.48 ERA and a 7-3 record before losing his last two starts. The model predicts that the Cubs win in 48% of simulations, far outpacing the implied odds here of 43% from FanDuel.

Nationals money line over the Angels (+115)

The Nationals are 15 games under .500, but they've successfully identified some key pieces with James Wood, CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore all in the hunt for an All-Star appearance. Left-hander Mitchell Parker has also put together quality starts in three of his last four outings, and he'll look to keep that momentum going on Sunday. Meanwhile, Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz has a 5.49 ERA this season and is 3-8 on the season. Washington wins in 50% of the model's simulations, making this price from Caesars Sportsbook -- where you can also use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to potentially double your winnings -- a great value.

Over 7 total runs in Twins vs. Tigers (-115)

Skubal won the American League Triple Crown in pitching last season after finishing with 18 wins, a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts. He's been even better in 2025, with a 9-2 record, a 2.29 ERA and 125 strikeouts over 102 innings. However, this is really more of a Paddack play after the veteran righty has been shelled for 23 hits and 16 earned runs in 14 innings over his last three outings. Meanwhile, the Tigers have scored at least eight runs in four of their last six games, and their offense alone could easily carry this total over. The model is projecting 8.4 combined runs on average and says the over hits in 56% of simulations, with BetMGM offering the best price.

Want more MLB picks for today?

You've seen some of the model's MLB best bets for Sunday. Now, get run line, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times. 

Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today's top MLB picks from expert Bruce Marshall, who's on a 26-23-1 (+554) roll on his last 50 MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today.