pascal-siakam-indiana-pacers-imagn-images-3.jpg
Imagn Images

The New York Knicks host the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday in Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Eastern Conference Finals at 8 p.m. ET in a rematch of last season's conference semifinals. The Pacers defeated the Knicks in seven games last year, but after trading for Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges in the offseason, and with the Knicks significantly healthier this year than they were at this time last postseason, New York hopes for some revenge. However, the Pacers are coming off defeating the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, eliminating the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games, so this could be an improved Indiana team as well. The Knicks are favored by 4.5 points, and the over/under is 223.5 points in the latest Knicks vs. Pacers odds from FanDuel. See more Pacers vs. Knicks props here.

SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh is the expert behind the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model is 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.

Now, here are the model's top-three picks in the Knicks vs. Pacers SGP on Wednesday:

  • Indiana +4.5 (-106)
  • Under 224 points (-110)
  • Pascal Siakam Over 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
  • SGP pays out +580 (odds subject to change)

Indiana +4.5 (-106)

The Pacers won all three of their road playoff games against Cleveland in the last series, including a 114-105 victory on May 13 to close out the series. Indiana hasn't played in more than a week, so the Pacers have a rest advantage over the Knicks, who last played on Friday. The Pacers are 23-6, including 8-2 in the postseason, since March 11 as they've become one of the most dominant teams in the NBA. The Pacers held Cleveland to below 30% shooting from beyond the arc in four of five games last series and can take away one of New York's strengths. The model projects the Pacers to cover the spread in well over 50% of simulations.

Under 224 points (-110)

The model projects Under 224 points scored in over 60% of simulations, creating value on this play. The Over hit in only two of New York's six games against Boston, and the Under hit in two of the final three games for Indiana against Cleveland in each team's previous series. The model projects New York to shoot just 34% from beyond the arc due to Indiana's stout 3-point defense. The Pacers ranked 29th in the league in offensive rebounding while the Knicks ranked second in defensive rebounding, which projects to limit Indiana's second-chance opportunities. New York's potential to struggle from deep and Indiana's lack of offensive rebounding project the model to favor the Under in Game 1. 

Pascal Siakam Over 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)

Siakam had 21 points, eight rebounds and five assists in Game 5 against the Cavaliers as he went Over this total in each of the final two games of the series. The 31-year-old was a problem for New York in the playoffs last year as well with Siakam averaging 20 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. The model projects Siakam for a 32 PRA on Wednesday, and he's gone Over this PRA total in 10 of 14 games against the Knicks over the last two seasons. See the latest FanDuel promo code here to bet this line.

Looking for a potential +580 payout? Bet our 3-leg NBA SGP parlay at FanDuel right now, and get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins with a FanDuel promo code. 

Want more NBA picks for today?

You've seen some of the model's top NBA playoff best bets for Wednesday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times. 

Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today's top NBA picks from expert Prop Bet Doug, who's on a sizzling 8-2 (+560) roll on his last 10 NBA player props picks, which includes a play on one of New York's key players. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who's up nearly six units on his last 10 NBA player prop bets.