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Two of the best WNBA teams in the league this season face off on Friday, July 25, as the defending champion New York Liberty (16-6) host the Phoenix Mercury (15-8). New York sits atop the Eastern Conference and has the second-best record in the league, and Phoenix has the second-best record in the Western Conference and third-best mark overall. The Liberty have lost just six times this year, and two of those losses came at the hands of the Mercury earlier this season. New York gets a boost in this matchup, however, as Jonquel Jones returned for to the lineup earlier this week after battling an ankle injury, and she missed essentially seven of eight quarters against Phoenix this year. 

Those interested in WNBA betting and WNBA player props should check out what experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai suggest for Friday's game before making wagers at top sportsbooks.

Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com -- a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women's game. Wetzel, the site's lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women's hoops to turn the site's prediction model into picks. Wetzel and Barzilai went 202-111-2 (+57.9 units) during the 2024 WNBA season and posted a 147-88-1 (+47.1 units) during the 2024-25 NCAA season. In the 2023 WNBA season, they finished 238-185-1 (+29.5 units).

Here are Wetzel and Barzilai's top Mercury-Liberty picks for Friday, July 24:

  • Mercury +6.5 (-110)
  • Mercury/Liberty Under 170.5 points (-110)

Mercury +6.5

The Mercury appeared to be rusty with their newly healthy core in an 11-point loss to the Dream at home when both Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper returned to the lineup. Meanwhile, the Liberty got their own All-Star caliber player back in Jonquel Jones in their last game, and they wasted no time returning to their peak and championship form.

That 55% mark from 3-point range will be extremely tough for New York to repeat, and now that the Mercury have a game under their belt with essentially their full rotation, they should look better this time around. Take them to keep it within two possessions in New York.

Mercury/Liberty Under 170.5 points

Another way to bet on shooting regression for the Liberty is to take the Under, especially against a top-four defense that finally has all its key pieces for the first time in weeks. The Liberty getting Jonquel Jones back also means their defensive anchor is once again patrolling the paint.

New York's defensive rating with Jonquel Jones on the court—84.2—would be the best in the league over the last two decades if projected out onto a full season. Expect both defenses to get up for this one, as it could potentially determine the No. 2 seed and home court in the semifinals. With a line in the 170s, we don't even need a defensive game—just an average game without abnormally hot shooting will cash this.