MLB picks: Orioles-Red Sox odds, predictions, props for May 22 from proven model

Can the Orioles start to turn things around against the Red Sox? Let's see what the SportsLine projection model suggests for its best bets

By Max Meyer

May 22, 2025 at 10:33 am ET • 1 min read

Imagn Images

The most surprising story in baseball this season is how disappointing the Baltimore Orioles have been. The Orioles, who combined for 192 wins in their previous two campaigns, have gotten off to a dreadful 16-32 start. As a result, they've already fired manager Brandon Hyde. Now, the Orioles have a four-game series at Fenway Park against the Red Sox, starting Thursday night at 6:45 p.m. ET on MLB Network. If you are intrigued by MLB betting and want MLB picks for Orioles-Red Sox before wagering at the top sportsbooks, check out the latest odds and best bets from the SportsLine projection model, which simulates each MLB game 10,000 times.

The two pitchers on the mound haven't had many great outings to start the season, as Orioles starter Cade Povich (1-3, 5.23 ERA) faces off against Red Sox righty Lucas Giolito (1-1, 7.08 ERA). Both arms have strikeout props of 5.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, with Povich's Under favored at -158 (Over +118) and Giolito's Under currently residing at -140 (Over +110).

Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson has the shortest odds to homer in this contest at +470, followed by a pair of Red Sox stars with Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman both priced at +560. Bregman is tied for the most home runs (11) this season among all players in this AL East clash, along with teammate Wilyer Abreu—who currently doesn't have odds posted to hit one out of the yard.

The Red Sox are -129 favorites (wager $129 to win $100) on the money line in the latest SportsLine consensus odds, while the Orioles are +110 (wager $100 to win $110) road underdogs. With two struggling starters pitching at a hitter's park, the total is positioned at 8. You can get the SportsLine model's latest projections, along with expert picks for Orioles-Red Sox, at SportsLine.

Here are the SportsLine model's projections for Orioles-Red Sox Thursday.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES at BOSTON RED SOX | 5/21 | 6:45 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Red Sox -129
Boston wins in 58% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Run line
Pick: Orioles +1.5 (-192)
Baltimore covers in 64% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Over/Under
Pick: Over 8 (-119)
The Over hits in 63.8% of simulations

Projected score: Red Sox 5.3, Orioles 4.9