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The New York Yankees are fresh of a sweep of the Chicago White Sox and enter the final weekend of the 2025 regular season tied with the Toronto Blue Jays for first place in the AL East. Toronto owns the head-to-head tiebreaker there, so for now, New York is the top wild card team in the American League. The AL East race being so right means the Yankees' final series of the year -- a three-game series versus the Baltimore Orioles -- is critical. The Yankees could get one of the two highest seeds in the American League if they can win the East, or they will be on the road for the wild card series. Another sweep is surely the Yankees' goal, while they will certainly be keeping tabs on Toronto's series with the Tampa Bay Rays this weekend. First pitch for Friday's Orioles vs. Yankees contest in the Bronx is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. The game will be shown nationally on MLB Network.

If you're looking to get into MLB betting and want the latest Yankees vs. Orioles odds, projections and player props, be sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

New York is turning to rookie right-hander Will Warren (8-8, 4.35 ERA) on Friday in what will likely be his final start of the year, as you'd assume he shifts to the bullpen for the playoffs. Warren pitched well in his last start against the Orioles, allowing three runs (one earned) in 5 1/3 innings, but he took the loss. The Orioles will start southpaw Trevor Rogers (9-2, 1.35 ERA). As he's pitched just 106 2/3 innings this year, many may not realize Rogers has been one of the best starters in baseball since making his 2025 debut in May. He tossed six shutout innings against New York last week, allowing just one hit and striking out seven batters.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Warren is set at over/under 4.5 strikeouts (Over -162, Under +124) while Rogers is set at 5.5 strikeouts (Over +108, Under -144). The SportsLine model doesn't have a strong lean on the strikeout props, but it rates Rogers Over 15.5 outs recorded 5 stars out of 5, as it estimates Rogers to generate 18.2 outs.

Yankees superstar Aaron Judge is, unsurprisingly, the favorite to hit a home run at FanDuel at +164. He's followed by Giancarlo Stanton (+215), Tyler O'Neill (+370), Paul Goldschmidt (+430), Gunnar Henderson (+440) and Jordan Westburg (+480).

Check out the model's plays for Yankees vs. Orioles on Friday. 

BALTIMORE ORIOLES at NEW YORK YANKEES | 9/26 | 7:05 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Yankees -145
New York wins in 61% of simulations

Run line
Pick: Orioles +1.5 (-175)
Baltimore covers in 62% of simulations

Over/Under
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105)
The Over hits in 59.6% of simulations

Projected score: Yankees 5.2, Orioles 4.6