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Three teams can punch their ticket to the postseason with a victory in Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season. One of those clubs is the New England Patriots (11-2), who also would clinch their first AFC East title since 2019 with a triumph over the visiting Buffalo Bills (9-4) on Sunday. The Patriots, who edged the Bills 23-20 on the road in Week 5, are looking to extend their winning streak to 11 games and end Buffalo's five-year reign atop the division.

The Denver Broncos (11-2), who also have won 10 in a row, and Los Angeles Rams (10-3) can clinch a playoff berth as well with home wins against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, respectively.

For Sunday's matchup between the Patriots and Bills, top sportsbooks have set the passing yards prop for New England's Drake Maye at 233.5 yards while James Cook of Buffalo - who is second in the NFL with 1,308 yards - has his rushing yards prop set at 83.5.

Before you play a side on Maye, Cook or any player prop for Week 15 of the NFL season, you need to see what SportsLine player prop expert PropBetGuy has to say. The expert is +829 on his last 45 NFL player prop picks. Here are his picks and analysis.

Michael Pittman Jr. Under 16.5 yards longest reception

This is a line I'd have considered betting even if quarterback Daniel Jones was starting for Indianapolis. Pittman has failed to clear this longest reception total in seven of his 13 games, and the matchup against Seattle is brutal.

The Seahawks have allowed the fewest receiving yards to outside pass catchers, at the lowest yards per reception (10.31) and yards per route run (1.36). Pittman runs 71% of his routes out wide and when he does venture into the slot, his average depth of target is only 5.4 yards.

And the Colts are starting 44-year-old Philip Rivers, whose arm strength was below average when he initially retired in 2020. While the basis of this bet isn't heavily rooted in assumptions, I'd surmise the Colts gameplan doesn't involve Rivers sitting back in the pocket and throwing the ball deep down the field. 

I have Pittman's longest reception projected around 14 yards, and I'd bet this down to Under 15.5.

Chase Brown Over 3.5 receptions

Brown had seven catches on seven targets against Baltimore two weeks ago. Granted, Joe Burrow did throw 46 passes in that game, but I do like Brown in this matchup.

The Ravens' defense has allowed a lot of receiving volume by running backs of late, and Burrow and the Bengals' passing game once again will be without Tee Higgins. The rest of Cincinnati's receivers are low volume, and Mike Gesicki has a tough matchup against Kyle Hamilton.

Since becoming a starter in the middle of last season, Brown is Over this line in four of the last five games with Burrow and without Higgins. Included in those contests are 16 total catches in two outings against this Baltimore defense.

I have Brown projected close to six targets, which should be more than enough to snag four catches.

Colby Parkinson Under 15.5 yards longest reception

Despite the fact Parkinson has come on strong with Tyler Higbee on injured reserve, this is a high line for the tight end. Parkinson only has two receptions this season that have exceeded 16 yards, and his average depth of target is only 3.0 yards.

He runs 75% of his routes in-line, and the Lions have allowed the second-fewest catches (1.6 per game) and the lowest yards after catch per reception (2.62) to that alignment this season.

With Detroit running man coverage at the second-highest rate, I'm expecting a ton of targets for Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, both of whom thrive against man coverage.

Even at a projected four targets, I have Parkinson's longest catch closer to 13 yards. I'd bet this line down to Under 14.5.