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After a strong 4-1 Week 13 mark, the bottom fell out as the model went 0-5 on its top Week 14 spread picks. The Vikings and Dolphins offenses woke up in blowout victories, while the Texans and Saints pulled off road upsets and the Bears just missed the cover. New Orleans beat the Bucs in Tampa, while Houston went into Kansas City and dealt the Chiefs a devastating blow. Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season brings just the second full slate of games since Week 4, and desperation is in the air for some, while others try to claim a spot atop the mountain.

Despite the setbacks, the SportsLine Projection Model still enters Week 15 on a 50-35 run for top-rated NFL picks dating back to 2024.

Here's a look at our favorite NFL spread picks for Week 15.

Best spread picks for NFL Week 15

Saints +2.5 vs. Panthers

The Saints (3-10) come off a big victory in Tampa, where rookie quarterback Tyler Shough made the plays he needed to in the sloppy conditions. These teams met in Week 10, when Shough threw for 282 yards and the Saints held Bryce Young to 124 passing yards. Carolina (7-6) comes in off a bye week, and they are fighting for the top spot in the NFC South, but their offense is 23rd in the NFL in yards per game and the defense is 18th, so they have been getting by on grit (and a little luck). New Orleans has won four of the past five meetings at home, including a 47-10 blowout last season. The other was a 10-7 Panthers victory, so take the points with the Saints, who cover in 61% of the model's simulations.

Cowboys -5.5 vs. Vikings

Dallas has the league's best offense in terms of yardage, averaging 395 yards per game, while Minnesota is 28th (275.7). The Vikings routed the Commanders last week, when they forced three turnovers and rushed for 162 yards. They lost four in a row before that, losing by an average of 13 points. Dak Prescott has 674 passing yards over tehe past two home games, victories against the Eagles and Chiefs. Minnesota's offense won't be able to keep up, so take the Cowboys, who cover in 60% of the SportsLine model's simulations.

Colts +13.5 vs. Seahawks

The Colts are in trouble without Daniel Jones (torn Achilles) and the backup quarterback situation muddled, but even so, this is a huge spread. Indy running back Jonathan Taylor leads the league with 1,356 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. He faces a tough Seattle defense, but he won't be stopped easily. This Colts team started 8-2, so there is talent there. The Seahawks are an excellent team and have some decisive victories this season, but the model says take the points with the Colts, who cover in 59% of the model's simulations.

Lions +5.5 vs. Rams

Detroit has the highest-scoring offense in the NFL (30.3 points per game), and the Rams are fourth (29.2), which is why the 55.5-point total is the highest on the board this week. The defenses are almost even in terms of yardage allowed, but L.A. allows just 17.5 points per game, third-fewest in the NFL. Still, both Detroit's Jared Goff and Rams QB Matthew Stafford will put up numbers against their former teams. The teams combined for 746 yards in last season's meeting, which the Lions won 26-20 at home in overtime. It should be another shootout, so take the points with the Lions. SportsLine expert R.J. White says this spread should be closer to 4, and the Lions are covering in 57% of the SportsLine model's simulations.

Chiefs -4.5 vs. Chargers

It's truly do-or-die now for the Chiefs, who need to win out and get plenty of help to get back to the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes thrives under such pressure, and the fans at Arrowhead should provide plenty of juice. It's going to be a cold one, and this should be a physical, low-scoring affair. Both offensive lines are banged up, and these defenses rank in the top 10 in yards allowed. Los Angeles comes off a big victory against the Eagles, but the offense averaged 3.9 yards per play and they benefited from five takeaways. Justin Herbert, playing with a surgically repaired non-throwing hand, threw for 106 yards last week. Kansas City allows 19 points per game, sixth-fewest in the league, so they should keep this one close. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Chiefs covering in 57% of its simulations.