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A division crown seemed like nothing but a dream for the Carolina Panthers after their disappointing start to the 2025 NFL season. With two games remaining on the schedule, the team has its NFC South title fate in its own hands.

Carolina (8-7) was demolished 42-13 by the New England Patriots in Week 4 to fall to 1-3, and an eighth consecutive sub-.500 campaign was expected by most. But the Panthers defied the cynics in Dave Canales' second year as head coach and went on to win six of their next nine contests to thrust themselves right into the NFC South race.

Their prospects were aided by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' downward spiral. In line for a fifth consecutive division title after a 6-2 start, Tampa Bay (7-8) floundered after returning from its bye, losing three straight before edging the Arizona Cardinals 20-17 in Week 13 to maintain a one-half game lead over Carolina.

The Panthers had their bye the ensuing week and dropped a 20-17 decision to New Orleans upon their return, while the Buccaneers followed their victory with setbacks against New Orleans and the Atlanta Falcons, setting up a showdown between the 7-7 rivals in Charlotte in Week 16.

The contest was a back-and-forth affair as the lead changed hands four times before Tampa Bay forged a 20-20 tie with a field goal early in the fourth quarter. But Carolina converted one of its own with 2:20 remaining and intercepted Baker Mayfield in Panthers territory with 49 seconds left to seal a 23-20 triumph and take sole possession of first place in the division.

As a result, the Panthers could have their sixth NFC South title and first since 2015 in their pocket by late Sunday afternoon and make their rematch with the Buccaneers in the regular-season finale insignificant. It will be anything but easy, however, as Carolina hosts the conference-leading Seattle Seahawks (12-3), while Tampa Bay visits the downtrodden Miami Dolphins (6-9).

Should the Panthers upset the Seahawks and the Buccaneers end their matchup against the Dolphins with either a tie or their seventh loss in eight games, Carolina will clinch an unforeseen division crown after secure its first winning record since going 11-5 in 2017. A tie by the Panthers, who entered this year with a total of seven victories over their previous two seasons, and loss by Tampa Bay also would put a bow on the NFC South.

However, Seattle enters Week 17 with a winning streak that reached five games with a stunning 38-37 overtime triumph over the Los Angeles Rams last Thursday and the NFC West title in its sights. In addition, Carolina has won back-to-back games just once this season and hasn't accomplished the feat since posting three consecutive victories from Weeks 5-7.

A meltdown such as the one Tampa Bay is experiencing could wind up costing head coach Todd Bowles his job should the team miss the postseason, regardless of the fact he had guided the Bucs to the division title in each of his first three years at the helm. 

But since the Dolphins have suffered double-digit losses in each of their last two outings after a four-game winning streak gave them false hope for a postseason berth, it's reasonable to think the Buccaneers will right the ship and defeat a rudderless Miami team that saw head coach Mike McDaniel, who likely will be fired at the end of the season, bench No. 1 quarterback Tua Tagovailoa prior to last week's 45-21 setback against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Considering the state of each club after Carolina's triumph last week, SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and its projection model currently give the Panthers the best chance to win the NFC South. But the ITL team's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, believes Carolina and Tampa Bay's prospects are close to equal should both finish with the same result on Sunday.

CHANCES OF WINNING NFC SOUTH

TEAM

CURRENT

WITH WEEK 17 WIN

WITH WEEK 17 LOSS

DIFFERENCE

Carolina Panthers

53.5%

62.6%

32.5%

30.1%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

46.5%

66.5%

33.6%

32.9%

The Panthers are just 4-9 against the Seahawks in regular-season play and have lost four of their last five meetings, including a 37-27 defeat at Seattle in 2023 in which Kenneth Walker III ran for 97 yards and a pair of touchdowns for the home team. Carolina's defense will have to contend with a Seahawks squad that is third in the NFL in scoring (29.5 points) and sixth in passing offense (238.1 yards), thanks in large part to Sam Darnold, who ranks fifth in the league with 3,703 passing yards, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads all players with 1,637 receiving yards.

Tampa Bay has won three straight and six of its last seven matchups against Miami after having lost four of the first five games in the all-time series. The Buccaneers' most recent victory over the Dolphins took place in 2021, when Mike Evans made six catches for 113 yards and hauled in two of the legendary Tom Brady's five touchdown passes in a 45-17 thrashing. 

Seattle is a 7-point favorite against Carolina in the latest NFL odds at DraftKings, and the model is predicting a 27-20 victory for the Seahawks. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are 5.5-point favorites at the sportsbook in their matchup versus the Dolphins, with the ITL team's model calling for a 28-25 triumph by Tampa Bay. Those outcomes would set up a showdown between the Panthers and Bucs in Tampa for the NFC South title in Week 18, which is something no one could have seen coming when the season began.