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The NFC North was the best division in the NFL last season, as three teams finished with 11 or more victories and qualified for the playoffs. Those clubs underwent changes during the offseason that could shift the balance of power in 2025, and the team that finished in the basement last year is hoping to take advantage of one of them immediately.

After finishing with their highest win total since 1998 (15-1) by going 14-3, the Minnesota Vikings allowed quarterback Sam Darnold to depart via free agency. Selected third overall by the New York Jets in the 2018 NFL Draft, Darnold split his first six years in the league between three teams before landing in Minnesota, where he finally found his footing and earned a nomination for the Comeback Player of the Year award.

The 28-year-old struggled mightily in both the 2024 season finale against the division-rival Detroit Lions. who finished with the No. 1 seed in the NFC at 15-2, as well as the Vikings' loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the wild card round, making the front office's decision to let him walk a bit easier. Minnesota now hands the reins to 2024 10th overall draft pick J.J. McCarthy, who missed his entire rookie campaign due to a knee injury he suffered in training camp.

McCarthy, who helped lead Michigan to the national championship in 2023, will be under center when the Vikings open their 2025 season against the host Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. Chicago entered last season with high hopes after selecting quarterback Caleb Williams with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft but finished with a 5-12 record as the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner experienced growing pains

Williams was sacked 68 times during his rookie campaign, which tied for the third-most in a season in NFL history. The Bears are hoping improvements to the offensive line and the hiring of Ben Johnson, who was the Detroit Lions' offensive coordinator the past three years, as head coach will help with Williams' development.

Chicago lost both meetings with Minnesota last season and finished with a 1-5 record against division opponents. The Vikings were 4-2 but will need to get off to a strong start in 2025 in order to keep pace with the Lions, who still have plenty of offensive talent, and the Green Bay Packers, who went 11-6 last year and added defensive star Micah Parsons in an offseason trade with the Dallas Cowboys.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and went 31-15 on top-rated picks in 2024, already has crunched the numbers on the 2025 season. According to the model, the Vikings enter the season with a 55.5% chance of making the playoffs and 20.5% chance of winning the division. However, a loss to the Bears on Monday Night Football would drop those respective chances to 43.6% and 12.9%. Chicago enters with low expectations, but its hopes of reaching the postseason become much better with a victory over Minnesota.

CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS

TEAM

CURRENT

WITH WIN

WITH LOSS

Vikings

55.5%

64.4%

43.6%

Bears

18.9%

25.9%

11.7%

CHANCE OF WINNING DIVISION

TEAM

CURRENT

WITH WIN

WITH LOSS

Vikings

20.5%

25.9%

12.9%

Bears

3.3%

5.0%

1.4%

Considering they have an unproven quarterback, the Vikings will need to beat the teams that clearly aren't better than them if they hope to return to the postseason for the third time in four years and possibly win their second NFC North title in eight campaigns. The model says Minnesota's chances of making the playoffs improve by nearly 9% with a triumph over Chicago but would drop by almost 12% with a loss.

The Bears' playoff chances aren't strong, but they rise by 7% with a season-opening win and decrease by more than 7% with a setback. Therefore, a victory is much more significant for the Vikings.

Despite the fact McCarthy will be making his NFL debut less than 15 miles away from his hometown of La Grange Park, Ill. on Monday Night Football, Minnesota head coach Kevin O'Connell is confident his 22-year-old quarterback can handle the moment.

"I think he had a lot of really good experience at the collegiate level, in front of 100,000-plus people," O'Connell said on Wednesday. "We don't just start talking about playing quarterback in the NFL this week. For him, it's about doing a lot of the things that make up playing quarterback for us in our offense, with the guys in the huddle with him – we're really excited about that group.

"And then locking in on the nuances and subtleties of the game plan, that hopefully by Monday we can make them as routine as possible. Then the ball gets kicked off, and he knows he's definitely not going to be alone out there, from a standpoint of the coaching staff and myself right there with him."

The Vikings have won seven of their last eight meetings with the Bears dating back to the 2021 season. Star receiver Justin Jefferson missed the majority of training camp with a left hamstring issue but was not on the team's initial injury report, so the model is leaning toward a cover by the Bears, who are 1.5-point underdogs, but has the Vikings winning a squeaker 22-21.