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The 2025 NBA Finals get underway on Thursday when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers for Game 1 of the series. The Thunder advanced to the Finals by defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals. NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (29.8 points, 6.9 assists, 5.7 rebounds per game) and Jalen Williams (20.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists per game) lead the way for OKC. Indiana defeated the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals and is paced by Tyrese Haliburton (18.8 points, 9.8 assists, 5.7 rebounds per game) and Pascal Siakam (21.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists per game). The Thunder are favored by 9.5 in the latest Thunder vs. Pacers odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 230.5. Gilgeous-Alexander is priced at +240 (risk $100 to win $240) to record a double-double, while Haliburton's over/under for total points scored is 17.5. 

Haliburton had a massive series for the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, and SportsLine's model is backing one of his props for NBA Underdog Fantasy picks on Thursday. Which NBA player props should you target on Underdog Fantasy for Thunder vs. Pacers in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, and how can you use this Underdog Fantasy bonus code to earn up to $1,000 in bonus credits?

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for Thunder vs. Pacers, Game 1. The NBA prop odds from Underdog Fantasy could change, so act now for maximum value and be sure to check out the latest Underdog Fantasy bonus to earn up to $1,000 in bonus credits. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog. Also see our top Game 1 NBA props and series picks for Thunder vs. Pacers.

Best Thunder vs. Pacers Game 1 NBA Finals props on Underdog Fantasy:

  • Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 points  (1.04x)
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 points (0.69x)
  • Jalen Williams Over 4.5 assists (0.91x)

Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 points  (1.04x)

Haliburton has kept his per game averages in points, assists, and rebounds fairly consistent from regular season to postseason play. The former Iowa State standout was outstanding in Indiana's Eastern Conference Finals series against the New York Knicks, and enters Game 1 of the NBA Finals averaging 18.8 points per game during the playoffs. SportsLine's model is projecting Haliburton to finish with 19.5 points on Thursday. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 points (0.69x)

The 2025 NBA MVP is one of the smoothest scorers in the league, and has a knack for creating free-throw attempts. The former Kentucky standout led the NBA in scoring during the regular season, averaging 32.7 points per game. SGA enters the NBA Finals averaging 29.8 points per game during the postseason, with SportsLine's model projecting him to finish with 33.7 points in Game 1.

Jalen Williams Over 4.5 assists (0.91X)

Williams has played at an extremely high level for the Thunder during the postseason, setting himself up for a massive payday when his current contract expires following the 2025-26 season. Williams averaged a career-high 5.1 assists per game during the regular season, and is averaging 5.3 during the playoffs. SportsLine's model is projecting him to finish with 5.4 assists in Game 1 on Thursday.

Want more picks for Pacers vs. Thunder in Game 1 of the NBA Finals?

You've seen some of the model's top Underdog Fantasy NBA props for Pacers vs. Thunder on Thursday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times. 

Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today's top NBA picks from expert Mike Barner, who's on a sizzling 229-166-2 (+3614) roll on his last 397 NBA Picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who's up more than 36 units.