2016 Fantasy Basketball Draft Prep: Sleepers 2.0

Can Joakim Noah and Joel Embiid win you a Fantasy championship this year? Chris Towers runs down his favorite late-round picks for the 2016-17 season.

Towers 2.0: Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts

The last time we did this exercise, I got all philosophical: "What is a sleeper?"

This time, I'll just tell you exactly how I am defining the term: Any player going outside of the top-100 who has a chance to emerge as a consistent Fantasy starter for your team. Other people may have their own definition, but this is the one I'm going with.

Why? Because Victor Oladipo isn't really a sleeper. Everyone knows about him. He's being drafted in the third round. You're expecting him to be a starter already -- and hoping he turns into a star. For me, that's the definition of a breakout performance -- and yes, you'll see Oladipo there when the time comes.

For me, a sleeper is someone I'm not really drafting with the intention of starting every week. Someone who, depending on the matchups, or how he has been playing recently, I might even bench for a stretch. But also someone I will be targeting come the later rounds in every single one of my drafts.

Not because I think they are guaranteed to hit; if I thought that, I wouldn't wait so long to draft them. I'm targeting these guys because, the end of the draft is where you win your championships. It is where bench players turn into starters, and even occasionally make the jump to stardom.

The best example of a sleeper hitting last season was C.J. McCollum, who was routinely available in the eighth or ninth round, and who turned in a top-30 season in 2015-16. If any of these guys hit that way, you're well on your way to a Fantasy championship.

Ish Smith might be too aggressive for his own good sometimes.

He bounced around the NBA for a while as a backup point guard, capable of generating shots at the rim with his quickness, but often turning those shots into bricked layups and run-outs the other way. However, he has reined things in a bit over the past few years, and actually ended up making a big impact for the 76ers with his ability to break down defenses in the pick and roll.

He should have a solid role for the Pistons all season doing the same even if it might be hard for him to be Fantasy relevant in his typical role as Reggie Jackson's backup. However, with Jackson down to start the season while recovering from a bout of knee tendinitis, Smith should be startable for the Pistons. Something like his average of 14.7 points and 7.0 assists per game are possible as a starter. And with Jackson dealing with what could be a recurring issue, Smith could have value all season long.

Another player who could be thrust into a larger-than-expected role this season is Sergio Rodriguez, who very well may open the season as the 76ers starting point guard and primary playmaker. Ben Simmon's foot injury threatens to sideline him for his entire rookie season, and now Jerryd Bayless is reportedly in doubt for the start of the season while dealing with a wrist injury.

Bayless should go before Rodriguez in your drafts, because he figures to be the starter in the long term, but Rodriguez is certainly worth a late-round pick with the opportunity ahead of him. The question is, can he take full advantage of it?

We last saw Rodriguez in the NBA when he was a 23-year-old, averaging 6.6 points and 3.2 assists in 15.9 minutes per game for the Kings and Knicks. He returned overseas following that season, where he seemed to hone his jumper, hitting 39.2 percent of his 3-pointers over the last six seasons. Rodriguez may not have a ton of upside, but he does have a great opportunity, and could emerge as a viable starting Fantasy option in Philadelphia.

Eric Gordon isn't expected to open the season as a starter for the Rockets, but this preseason has showed an obvious path to playing time for him. With Patrick Beverley missing time with a knee injury, Gordon has slid right into the starting lineup, serving as the nominal point guard while James Harden runs the offense.

We know Mike D'Antoni wants as many shooters on the floor as possible, and Gordon has emerged as one of the best in the league when healthy. With the ability to play either guard spot for the Rockets, he shouldn't have any trouble finding playing time, and we're now two full years removed from the last time Gordon missed a game with a knee injury.

You never want to bet on Gordon staying healthy, but if he can, he has top-75 potential.

Do we really want to buy into a Dion Waiters breakout?

This is his fifth season in the league, and he has, at best, stagnated in his development. Waiters sported a 49.2 True Shooting percentage as a rookie, while playing on a dreadful Cleveland team that required him to create most of his shots for himself. Four years later, he put up the exact same TS%, while playing on a Thunder team that practically spoon-fed him open shots. Any expectations that Waiters may develop into the star he was supposed to be when the Cavaliers drafted him are obviously misplaced. However, he has a big opportunity to earn the starting job in Miami, and might even serve as the primary backup point guard to Goran Dragic even if he does come off the bench.

I'm not betting on Waiters taking a big step forward, but if he ever was going to, this would be the chance.

Scorers get all of the attention, even in Fantasy, but you still need the guys who are willing to do the dirty work. This is where someone like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson can be so valuable. As a rookie on a bad team, he averaged just 5.8 points per game and showed little in the way of scoring acumen. However, he really filled up the box score, and his per-minute numbers really tell the story; Hollis-Jefferson averaged 9.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.3 steals and 0.9 blocks per-36 minutes as a rookie, despite missing much of the season with an ankle injury.

He should have a ton of minutes coming his way in Brooklyn, and that ability to fill up the box score can make him a sneaky-good late-round pick in Roto leagues.

Solomon Hill could be a lot like Hollis-Jefferson. He averaged 6.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 2.0 combined blocks and steals per-36 minutes for the Pacers last season, but had trouble securing a full-time role. That won't be an issue in New Orleans, where he signed for a big contract and should open the season as the starter at small forward. Hill should also see time as a backup small-ball four, but no matter where he plays, his chances of breaking out are going to be dependent on his 3-point shooting.

Just a 32.5 percent shooter for his career, Hill caught fire toward the end of last season, hitting 24 3-pointers over his final 13 games from April 1 on, including the playoffs. This is a small enough sample size that skepticism is warranted, but the Pelicans seem to believe in Hill, and he certainly has an opportunity to emerge as a contributor if the 3-pointer is real.

Most of these choices are players we expected to improve upon their past production, but that isn't a prerequisite for a sleeper. Just look at Marvin Williams. Coming off a season in which he was a tremendous option for Roto players, averaging 11.7 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.7 combined blocks and steals -- with a career-high 152 3-pointers made -- Williams is nonetheless going off the board 130th on average, right now. Part of that may be an expectation of decline coming off his best season since at least 2008-09, but it might just be that Williams is underrated.

His ability to fill up the box score won't wow you, but you can feel confident you are going to get strong production from him, and the lack of hype makes him a nice bet to outperform his draft position.

Like Williams, we've already seen Terrence Jones play at a level that would make him a bargain on Draft Day. You have to go back a couple of seasons, of course, but in 2014-15, Jones averaged 11.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.3 combined blocks and steals per game, despite dealing with nagging injuries.

The Pelicans got him on a cheap deal this offseason in the hopes he can bounce back in a new environment. Jones is likely to open the season backing up Anthony Davis, but there's no reason that duo couldn't play together because they did so en route to a national championship at the University of Kentucky.

Despite a career that has already had its share of ups and downs, Jones is just 24, with room to grow.

Speaking of room to grow ... If most of the players on this list hit their best-case scenario, you're looking at a really solid Fantasy starter. If Joel Embiid hits his, he could be one of the best centers in basketball. Of course, there also may not be a player on the list less likely to live up to that potential this season.

Embiid has yet to play a regular season game due to foot and back injuries going back to his college days, and he only just played in his first preseason action. The 76ers are likely going to play it very safe with Embiid this season, limiting him on back-to-backs and keeping his minutes fairly low early on. However, we're also talking about a legitimate 7-footer with huge potential on both sides of the ball. The ideal version of Embiid can score in the post or in the pick-and-roll, with range out to the 3-point line and huge defensive potential.

The hype train might push Embiid into the middle rounds by the start of the season, but he could be worth the risk even then. If you can get him in, say, the 10th round, Embiid's potential is too valuable to ignore.

Another player who just has to come close to his former level to be a nice value this season, Joakim Noah actually ranks one spot behind Embiid in the aggregate rankings at FantasyPros.com. At 131 overall, Noah may not even end up drafted in many leagues this offseason, which is quite a precipitous fall for someone who was widely -- and rightly -- considered an elite Fantasy option just a few years ago.

Whether he can get to that point again after knee and shoulder injuries sapped him of much of his effectiveness a year ago obviously remains to be seen. However, even the much-diminished version of Noah we saw in his final season in Chicago still put up 8.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists in just 21.9 minutes per game. I wouldn't recommend drafting Noah as your starting center, but as a No. 2 or 3, there is more than enough upside here to make him worth the risk.