It's getting to be about that time of year again. The football season has kicked into the high gear. The leaves are starting to change in places, and the chatter around the water cooler is starting to turn to pro hoops. It's never too early to talk a little bit of basketball and get an early jump on your cheat sheet, especially if the football season has already started to go south for your real or Fantasy team. In the first of our draft prep pieces, we will view a handful of sleepers who can push your team over the top and busts who could plummet your squad to the bottom of the standings.
Sleepers
T.J. Ford, G, Milwaukee: Ford exploded in his rookie season of 2003-04, averaging just shy of 27 minutes while posting 7.1 ppg and 6.5 apg in 55 games. Then came a nasty spinal cord injury that would cost him the remainder of a promising rookie season, as well as the entire 2004-05. Fast forward to training camp this year; he has been cleared for training camp, and he will not have any restrictions. Coach Terry Stotts has said he will try to get Ford near 27 minutes per game, which is what he averaged before his nasty spill. Ford is an intriguing pick on Draft Day; he can help out in the assists and steals category. He has the kind of ability to make a Fantasy season special for an owner who takes a chance on him in the later rounds.
Jim Jackson, G, Phoenix: The veteran will likely be the biggest beneficiary of all the roster moves in Phoenix. Following the departure of Joe Johnson (Atlanta) and Quentin Richardson (New York), Jackson should see a much bigger role as he begins his first full season with the Suns. While the team did acquire Boris Diaw in the Atlanta trade to compete, the Suns will rely on Jackson, who is a lot more familiar with the system. He can hit his jumpers and should see a renaissance with more responsibilities.
Shaun Livingston, G, L.A. Clippers: The Clippers have shipped injury-prone Marko Jaric off to Minnesota, meaning the time is now for Livingston. He finished his rookie season with 7.4 ppg and 5.0 apg despite dealing with a rash of ailments. In fact, his propensity for injury might be a reason some Fantasy owners shy away from him on Draft Day. Remember, he's still only 20 years old and will need to toughen up a bit to deal with the rigors of playing every day. He had a strong offseason and has unlimited potential, especially in keeper leagues. He should edge out Sam Cassell for a starting job during the preseason, which makes him a great middle- to late-round pick when Draft Day rolls around.
Mike Sweetney, F, New York: Sweetney showed glimpses of brilliance at times, with injuries opening up a more prominent role in 2004-05, averaging 8.4 ppg and 5.4 rpg in 77 games. Following the offseason trade of Kurt Thomas to Phoenix for Quentin Richardson, the New York frontcourt is ultrathin. This bodes well for Sweetney, who is destined for a career year. He should average somewhere in the neighborhood of 11-13 ppg while posting about seven boards per. Barring any last-minute roster tweaking by the Knicks, he should be a monster down low and makes for a nice selection in the middle rounds.
Jason Terry, G, Dallas: Terry is a player everyone knows about, so he might not fit into the traditional sleeper role. But he has seen a gradual decrease in his Fantasy appeal since 2000-01, as his scoring has decreased in each of the past five season. There are two things at play here that will send Terry back to his Fantasy value of the past. One, the Mavericks play to make him the second scoring option behind Dirk Nowitzki this season and two, he's entering the final year of his contract. The latter always seems to spur a player on to bigger and better things, as he auditions for a huge payday during the offseason. There is plenty left in the tank here, so 18.0 ppg and 6.0 apg are not out of the question.
Busts
Joe Johnson, F, Atlanta: The Hawks finally landed Johnson after a lengthy squabble with Steve Belkin, a member of the ownership group that was bought out by the other partners. He had a career season with the high-flying Suns in 2004-05, leading to the huge check he will be cashing from the Hawks. He will step in as the team's starting point guard, but the talent surrounding him in Atlanta will be far less than that in Phoenix. There is no Steve Nash lobbing him passes for easy buckets, and opposing defenses will now be gunning for him every night because he's the top scoring option in Atlanta. He might be able to handle those responsibilities, but we think he will see a decrease in Fantasy appeal. Somewhere, Belkin will be drinking a mai tai and laughing.
Desmond Mason, F, Milwaukee: Mason is expected to come off of the bench, following the addition of Bobby Simmons via free-agency and the re-signing of Michael Redd. Coach Terry Stotts has also said he plans to use Simmons at power forward, which takes away a little more from Mason. He has seen his scoring average increase in each of the five seasons he has been in the league, scoring 17.2 ppg in 2004-05. There is simply no way he will come close to those numbers with the additions, plus No. 1 pick Andrew Bogut. There is just not enough basketball to go around.
Gary Payton, G, Miami: The Glove signed with the Heat mainly for a final shot at a championship before heading into the sunset. Shaq says that he is "the only guy in the world that can give him one." That might be true, as the Heat are absolutely stacked following their flurry of offseason moves. That is just it, though -- the Heat are stacked. Where exactly does an aging veteran who has lost a step or two fit in? That's right, off of an impressive bench. He will not start ahead of Jason Williams at the point. He still has the ability to operate as a serviceable sixth man, but isn't that what Antoine Walker will be?
Antoine Walker, F, Miami: Walker will challenge for the job as the team's sixth man in Miami and give Udonis Haslem and James Posey a breather at each of the forward spots when needed. He has never met a shot he didn't like, which kills Fantasy owners in Roto leagues due to his decreasing shooting percentage. He also used to check in around 70 percent at the charity stripe in his first go-round with Boston, but apparently he has slacked off significantly during practice and now hits just over one out of every two free throws. Go another way if you are deciding between 'Toine and another player on Draft Day, especially in Roto formats.
Marvin Williams, F, Atlanta: Williams was the second overall selection in the NBA Draft, but he might get the Darko Milicic experience during his initial season. With Josh Childress, last year's draft pick, and Al Harrington in his way, Williams might do most of his learning from the bench. Don't forget about Josh Smith, either. He emerged late in the season as a valuable Fantasy player who is expected to start at small forward. There is plenty of talent in front of him and the knock on Williams is that he is not exactly the most motivated player in the world to make things change. He has all the potential in the world and is still an impressive keeper prospect, but he might make more of a splash in 2006-07 than in his rookie year.
