2018 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Breaking down quarterback ADP rankings
Jamey Eisenberg looks at the Average Draft Position for quarterbacks heading into 2018.
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Don't panic. Relax. You can take your time. You don't have to rush.
There's no pressure for drafting a quarterback this year.
In looking at the Average Draft Position for quarterbacks, you will find plenty of bargains on Draft Day -- from top to bottom. Depending on your league, you might be able to target, and acquire, almost any quarterback you want.
Aaron Rodgers? His ADP is Round 2 at No. 24 overall. That's right, no quarterback (as of now) is being drafted in Round 1, which means if you must have Rodgers on your roster, you have the chance to select him in the second round.
Tom Brady? His ADP is Round 4 at No. 40 overall. Russell Wilson? His ADP is Round 5 at No. 50 overall.
Here is the ADP for some of the other hot-topic quarterbacks at the start of training camp:
- Deshaun Watson -- Round 4 at No. 39 overall
- Carson Wentz -- Round 5 at No. 52 overall
- Jimmy Garoppolo -- Round 7 at No. 83 overall
- Andrew Luck -- Round 8 at No. 93 overall
- Patrick Mahomes -- Round 9 at No. 108 overall
Of these quarterbacks, Watson, Wentz and Garoppolo feel a little overvalued at their current ADP, but Luck and Mahomes are good value picks as of now. Don't be surprised when Luck's ADP starts to rise now that he's healthy again from his shoulder injury.
We're going to break down the overall ADP throughout the preseason, and we'll continue to monitor how this quarterback list changes. For now, here is an undervalued quarterback based on ADP, an overvalued one and some sleepers to target with late-round picks.
Undervalued
Rivers' ADP is Round 11 at No. 126 overall, which isn't bad on where to draft him. But he's highly undervalued as the No. 22 quarterback off the board, which is a joke. He almost annually outperforms his draft value, and he's been a top 10 Fantasy quarterback each of the past two years.
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The loss of Hunter Henry (torn ACL) hurts Rivers, and we'll see if the Chargers bring back Antonio Gates to help at tight end. Rivers also needs second-year receiver Mike Williams to step up following his bust campaign as a rookie in 2017.
But with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams and likely Gates, along with Melvin Gordon out of the backfield, Rivers has enough talent to push for a third-consecutive top-10 finish. He will definitely be better than the No. 22 quarterback, and it's a steal if you get him at that value.
Overvalued
I can't get past Wentz being drafted as the No. 5 quarterback off the board in Round 5 at No. 52 overall. It's a good sign that he avoided the PUP list to start training camp, but he's still coming back from the torn ACL he suffered in December.
We'll see just how healthy No. 1 receiver Alshon Jeffery (shoulder) is after having offseason surgery (he opened training camp on the PUP list), and Wentz still has to prove he's ready for Week 1. There are more hurdles to overcome.
I have Wentz ranked as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback as of now, but he should not be considered a top-five quarterback on Draft Day. And Round 5 is too soon for him to be selected in any one-quarterback league.
Sleepers to target
There are a lot of players who fall into this category given their ADP, including Rivers. So I'm just going to list my five favorite quarterbacks being drafted in Round 9 or later, and all of these guys are worth late-round fliers.
- Matt Ryan, Falcons (ADP - No. 112 overall)
- Marcus Mariota, Titans (ADP - No. 125 overall)
- Jameis Winston, Buccaneers (ADP - No. 126 overall)
- Derek Carr, Raiders (ADP - No. 132 overall)
- Eli Manning, Giants (ADP - No. 149 overall)
Ryan should rebound this season after being a bust in 2017. He likely won't play like his MVP campaign in 2016, but the addition of rookie receiver Calvin Ridley, and hopefully more than just three touchdowns from Julio Jones, should help Ryan finish as a potential No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in 2018.
Mariota gets a new offensive coordinator in Matt LaFleur, and hopefully a better season from second-year receiver Corey Davis, who was a bust in 2017. Mariota was a solid Fantasy quarterback in 2016 before breaking his leg in Week 16, and I expect him to get back to that level this season.
Winston will miss the first three games because of suspension, and Tampa Bay has a bye in Week 5, so you don't get Winston in full until Week 6. But last year, Winston was on pace to lead the NFL in passing yards based on the 11 healthy games he played, and he has that kind of potential. I love Winston as a high-end No. 2 quarterback, especially at this ADP.
Carr should improve with a new coach in Jon Gruden and added weapons in Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant. He will hopefully get better production from No. 1 receiver Amari Cooper as well. A bounce-back season is likely after he was a bust in 2017.
Manning gets Odell Beckham back at 100 percent and a new weapon in Saquon Barkley. He also gets upgrades along the offensive line. With Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard, there's a lot to like about Manning this year, including his low price tag on Draft Day.


















