2018 Fantasy Football Free Agency: Does Jarvis Landry lose value with Browns trade?

The Browns aren't known for their incredible receivers, but that will change with Jarvis Landry coming to town. Here's a look at what we can expect from Landry (and his new teammates) in 2018.

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When Tyrod Taylor presumably takes over as the Browns' starting quarterback in 2018, he'll have a great short- and mid-range receiver to throw to in Jarvis Landry. The 400 receptions Landry has over his first four seasons are more than anyone else in NFL history has ever had. He sports a 70.2 career catch rate and is coming off of a nine-score campaign. He's a hands man, and he's done it primarily as a slot receiver.

Hopefully Taylor notices. The quarterback has a pretty solid track record of throwing to his outside receivers with the Bills, attempting less than 20 percent of his passes to slot guys since 2016. 

It might be a problem for Landry, who could be at least as productive as he was when he was with the Dolphins if he had a passer who would look for him. 

Nonetheless, consider the following: 

• The Browns already have Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman on the roster, two speedsters who will stretch defenses and force them to abandon tight coverage on Landry.
• Playing from behind has become synonymous with Browns football. The team has attempted at least 560 passes in each of the last three seasons. There will be passing. Landry will be receiving.
• Taylor might not be as locked into Landry as we'd like, but the rookie quarterback the Browns draft might be. After all, what better friend is there for a young, inexperienced quarterback than a superb route runner with krazy-glue hands? Plus Taylor might adapt -- this will be the best passing game he's ever worked with. 

So there are tons of variables here, the biggest of which being a quarterback situation that will likely involve two different starters throughout the season. Even if the Browns end up slinging it as per usual, Landry's 10 target-per-game average in 2017 doesn't seem reasonable because of all the other receiving talent in town. Eight targets per game, which he did in 2016, seem much more realistic. If Landry keeps up his career catch rate, we're talking about 90 receptions, a mark he's hit three times in four years. 

Landry's career-high 12.1 yards per grab in 2016 was an outlier. He's gone for 10.5 yards per snare or worse in his other three seasons, with a career-low 8.8 yards per reception. It might be too generous to project Landry for 10 yards per catch, but we'll do it for this exercise. My third-grade math teacher says that would mean he'd have 900 yards. 

Touchdowns? Look, only one Browns wide receiver has more than five touchdowns in a season since 2008 and his name is Josh Gordon. You might think Landry has no chance to be a scoreboard changer but you'd be wrong. He came up big in the red zone last year when all of his touchdowns came from inside of 10 yards. In fact, 14 of his last 16 career touchdowns have come from inside of 10 yards. 

Defenses are going to have to make a hard choice on who to focus on between Landry, Gordon, Coleman and second-year tight end David Njoku, too. It's a lot of mouths to feed but Landry should either finish first or second (behind Gordon) on the team in scores. Penciling in six touchdowns seems fair.

Early projection: 90 receptions, 900 yards, six touchdowns. 

That outlook compares to roughly 120 Fantasy points in a non-PPR league, good enough for 22nd at the position last season. Throw 90 points on top of that for PPR formats and we're talking about numbers similar to that of the 15th-ranked wideout when catches counted. 

That should make Landry a top-24 receiver in standard (Round 5 or 6) and a top-15 or so choice in PPR (late Round 3 through Round 4). 

What about Josh Gordon? 

Landry's arrival will certainly cost Gordon some targets, but Taylor's penchant for chucking it provides optimism. Gordon might have a hard time eclipsing 75 catches but his gaudy receiving average will keep his yardage more than afloat. Gordon should end up with over 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns. I'd take him over Landry in all formats including PPR. 

What about Corey Coleman? 

It's over. Gordon and Landry will lock up about 14 targets per game, leaving little for Coleman to do damage with. He's not worth drafting.

What about David Njoku? 

Adding a short-area receiver is never good for a tight end, especially one who's still developing. Njoku's breakout status is on the back-burner as he'll likely be a touchdown-or-bust tight end worth a look off waivers.

What about Duke Johnson?

Adding a short-area receiver is also bad for a pass-catching running back. He averaged nearly six targets per game last season -- some of those are going to go to Landry. Unless he finds his way into a prominent role as a ball carrier, or unless he finds his way onto another roster, Johnson won't be nearly as good for Fantasy as he was in 2017.

What about ... Saquon Barkley?! 

My brain just melted. If the Browns choose Barkley with a first-round pick in April's draft, EVERYTHING YOU JUST READ IS UP FOR GRABS. 

We'll cross that bridge when we get to it.