2019 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Who should I take at No. 8 overall in PPR?
After the top four running backs are gone, there are several ways to navigate a pick in the middle of the first round. Ben Gretch explains his process.
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Ben Gretch
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4 min read
PPR draft slot: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
Right around pick eight would be my choice for worst spot to draft from in 2019, in large part because I expect David Johnson to be gone by that point in most leagues. If that's the case, I'm likely taking one of the elite wide receiver options, but I won't have the luxury of potentially nabbing two of them that I might get at the very end of the first round.
But in this recent mock, I was able to land my RB5 after three elite wide receivers went fifth, sixth and seventh. Here's how things went from there:
- 1.08 David Johnson, RB, ARI
- 2.05 Damien Williams, RB, KC
- 3.08 Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN
- 4.05 Robert Woods, WR, LAR
- 5.08 Christian Kirk, WR, ARI
- 6.05 Mike Williams, WR, LAC
- 7.08 Baker Mayfield, QB, CLE
- 8.05 Latavius Murray, RB, NO
- 9.08 Vance McDonald, TE, PIT
- 10.05 N'Keal Harry, WR, NE
- 11.08 Carlos Hyde, RB, KC
- 12.05 Chris Thompson, RB, WAS
- 13.08 Ryquell Armstead, RB, JAC
- 14.05 Marqise Lee, WR, JAC
- 15.08 Dallas Cowboys, DST
One thing you'll see if you check out nearly any of my drafts this year is I will be very heavy on wide receivers in Rounds 3-6. That's The Running Back Dead Zone, an area where I feel most drafters should avoid the RB position at all costs because not many elite seasons have come from that range historically, while those players have high bust rates. You're typically taking on the risk of an RB pick but without any more upside than you can get in the later rounds, and a better chance at being a solid RB2 isn't enough for me to justify that.
Because of that approach, landing Johnson and then Damien Williams in the second round was something of a dream start in this mock. It gave me two of my top eight running backs and allowed me to turn my focus to the wide receiver position not just because I wanted to avoid running back, but because it was a position of need. This league starts three wide receivers, and I loaded up with high-upside options in the next four rounds right through to my flex.
With a start like that, I felt comfortable grabbing Baker Mayfield in the seventh. There are few who seem to be down on the Browns this offseason, but count me among those who love the upside of that offense. Latavius Murray should be a very solid RB3 in most formats this year now that he's with the Saints, although my RB position did wind up pretty thin after I opted to nab Vance McDonald and N'Keal Harry in the ninth and 10th rounds.
Favorite pick
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I gave Johnson a full writeup this offseason, but suffice to say that if I can get him past pick six, I'm thrilled. That's not to say I think the drafters in front of me made a mistake, because the top tier of wide receivers absolutely comes into play in this draft range, and it's the move I would make at this pick if Johnson were gone. But Johnson falls on my board above all of the wide receivers, and I firmly believe he has nowhere to go but up even if Kliff Kingsbury's offense isn't quite the revelation some expect, simply because of how poorly he was utilized last season.
If Kingsbury and Kyler Murray do unlock the Cardinals' offense, Johnson could contend for RB1.
Pick I might regret
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When I don't get a top three tight end, I'm often waiting until the very end of drafts to nab someone like Jordan Reed, who I can start early in the season and then move on from if need be. In this draft, I grabbed McDonald, who I think will be a fairly consistent producer this year for Pittsburgh, but who I'm not sure moves the needle enough relative to an even later option to justify the ninth round pick. The impact of taking McDonald here after I'd already taken a quarterback earlier can be felt on my WR and especially RB depth.
Make or break pick
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Williams will be the make or break pick for most managers who select him this year, and to take him where I did I'm clearly leaning toward him being a star. But the downside is apparent, and that's one reason I nabbed Carlos Hyde later. One note is I don't typically like to handcuff -- I instead prefer to seek upside from the backup of a player I don't have rostered because if I've invested a top pick in a running back, I'm hoping he'll be worth it -- but I took Hyde in this draft because Williams is a unique early round pick with clear upside and clear downside. I actually prefer Darwin Thompson as the second most valuable Kansas City back, but Dave Richard snagged him before I took Hyde. So that wasn't a strategy I would necessarily seek out, but in this situation I felt Hyde had fallen far enough to justify the pick.
