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There's a key difference between doing a mock draft and doing a draft that counts, and that's that … well, the real drafts count. Sometimes, we're trying different builds out in mock drafts, or seeing how we feel about reaching for a player above where we draft him. Practice makes perfect, as they say, and mock drafts are our way of practicing for the real drafts with low stakes. 

But when the stakes are highest, that's when you see what we really believe. That's why I've always said, the closer you get to the start of the season, the less ADP matters because people are going to just start going for their guys, regardless of what the wisdom of the crowds thinks.

You can see that in the FLEX League draft I took part in this weekend. The Athletic's Jake Ciely created the league as a way for analysts to face off against one another in a series of leagues of all different shapes, ala the Tout Wars drafts in Fantasy baseball. All we're playing for is pride, here, but that's an awful big motivator when it comes down to it. We all want to be the very best -- like no one ever was -- and this is one opportunity to prove where you stand.

I took part in the 0.5-PPR draft that kicked the weekend off Saturday morning, alongside some of the best and brightest from around the Fantasy industry, including our own Jamey Eisenberg. In addition to being 0.5-PPR, it's also a three-WR, two-flex league with no kickers -- the latter of which should come as no surprise if you are aware of Jake and his #BanKickers mantra -- so it presents a bit of a different strategy, with deeper lineups than your typical league. Here's the 1927 Yankees-esque lineup I was going up against and the draft order: 

  1. Jim McCormick, ESPN
  2. Jen Ryan, SiriusXM Fantasy/SportsLine
  3. Me, from here
  4. Rich Hribar, SharpFootballAnalysis.com
  5. Dennis Esser, The Athletic
  6. David Gonos, The Athletics
  7. John Daigle, NBC Sports Edge
  8. Eric Young, Impact Wrestling (and friend of Fantasy Football Today)
  9. Jake Ciely, The Athletic
  10. Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports (you may have heard of him)
  11. Matt Schauf, Draft Sharks
  12. Brandon Murchison, Roto Baller

You can see the full results for this draft here, and I'm going to walk you through every pick I made, what my mindset was, why I drafted who I did, who I might have drafted instead, and whether I made the right choice or not. Here's how things went for me, picking from the No. 3 spot:

1.3 -- Alvin Kamara

Picking third, this was the one that probably required the least amount of consideration, especially once Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook were off the board. Kamara is my No. 2 player, even in .5PPR, so it took me very little time to make that decision. I'm a little worried about what his production might look like if Taysom Hill is the starter, but I think Michael Thomas' injury raises both his floor and ceiling, and I'm betting on Jameis Winston being the starter anyway. I think we could see both career-highs in rushing and receiving from Kamara, who figures to be the north star around which the whole offense revolves. Who else I considered: Travis Kelce is my other option here, and in full-PPR, it's a tough decision between him and Cook for me. But Kamara being there meant it was an easy decision. 

2.10 -- Darren Waller

Ultimately, this pick came down to a question I ultimately guessed wrong on: Will one of George Kittle or Waller make it back to me at 3.3? I want one of the elite tight ends, the biggest difference makers at the position outside of the high end RB, and I didn't want to take the risk that both would get snatched up on the 2-3 turn. Well, Kittle was still there, as the next four picks were Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, and CeeDee Lamb. I'm always happy to get one of the elite TE, but knowing I could have had either of Kittle or Waller with my next pick did make me regret this one just a little bit. Who else I considered: Jefferson would probably have been the pick there if I passed on one of the TE, so I definitely regret this one. A bird in the hand is worth more than two in the bush and all that, but I would feel a lot better with one of those high-end WR on my roster alongside an elite TE. 

3.3 -- David Montgomery

This one might be viewed as a reach, but I've really talked myself into Montgomery over the last few weeks. It's starting to sound like Tarik Cohen may open the season on the PUP list as he continues to work back from his torn ACL, and Montgomery's usage with Cohen sidelined last season was pretty incredible, as he was on a 270-carry, 80-target pace over his final 12 games. Maybe Damien Williams cuts into that role more than the assembled backups did last season, but I'm confident Montgomery is going to be a focal point of this offense yet again. He's a top-12 RB and I got him after 14 were already off the board. We've seen top-five upside here. Who else I considered: Allen Robinson, D'Andre Swift, or Keenan Allen. In retrospect, I might have liked my team a little bit more with Allen or Robinson locked in as my No. 1 WR, but I do have Montgomery ranked the highest of these four, so it's fine. I also gave some thought to possibly taking Patrick Mahomes here. 

4.10 -- Lamar Jackson

Uh oh. Here's another one I wish I could have back. I knew after I took Montgomery I was going to be trying to make up ground at WR, and taking Jackson only exacerbated that. I didn't view any of the guys available as obvious difference makers, whereas we know Jackson can be just that when he's going right. Still, this was a reach, and it was a self-inflicted wound. I got in my own head and talked myself out of the right strategy. Who else I considered: If it wasn't Jackson, it would have been Diontae Johnson, who naturally went with the very next pick.  I didn't want another running back, and I talked myself out of Johnson due to my increasing concerns about what Pittsburgh's offense is going to look like. It was the wrong move. 

5.3 -- Ja'Marr Chase

And I may have compounded the mistake here. Chase has undeniable upside, and if he finished as a No. 1 WR in this offense, it wouldn't shock me. But having a guy who hasn't played a competitive game of football in 18 months and who isn't drawing rave reviews in camp so far -- which is true of the whole offense as well -- as my top wide receiver, knowing I wouldn't pick again for 18 picks wasn't the smartest call. On the other hand, I needed to shoot for upside, and Chase has exactly that, as a potential superstar in a high-volume offense. Who else I considered: Honestly? Nobody. For as much hand wringing as I just did over this pick, Chase was clearly my top ranked player left, especially since I wasn't going RB here. If I had a WR already, Miles Sanders would have been a great pick. 

6.10 -- Will Fuller

Gotta lean into the high-variance, high-upside picks at WR since I'm trying to make up as much ground as possible. And Fuller is one of my absolute favorite targets in this range of drafts -- or even later, based on where he's going in ADP. There aren't a lot of potential top-10 WR available at this point in the draft, and it's worth remembering that Fuller finished 0.2 points per game behind A.J. Brown before his suspension to end 2020. There's injury risk for a WR changing teams for the first time, and he's not playing with Deshaun Watson either, which hurts. But Tua Tagovailoa has a world of upside, and Fuller should be his No. 1 WR once he returns from the end of that suspension in Week 1. Who else I considered: Maybe Michael Thomas, another high-risk, high-upside player, but given my weakness at the position, I don't know if I could afford to wait until October for him. 

7.03 -- Curtis Samuel

Wash, rinse, repeat. Samuel is dealing with a groin injury and it's not clear when he's going to be removed from the PUP list. Ron Rivera isn't concerned about him losing time since he's already familiar with the offense, but this is obviously a concern right now. But, it's also worth remembering that, while Samuel wasn't super productive in 2019 in this offense, it was still a hugely valuable role. Samuel had 105 targets with an average depth of target of 14.6, making him one of the leaders in air yards in the whole NFL. He caught just 51.4% of those targets for 627 yards, but that was more on the quarterbacks than Samuel if you ask me -- or anyone who watched Kyle Allen and Will Grier play that season. If he gets anything like that usage with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB -- and he also had 19 rush attempts for 130 yards and a score that season -- he's going to top 1,100 total yards with a decent number of touchdowns, too. He's just gotta get healthy. Who else I considered: Mike Williams is a similar high-upside, high-variance player who would have fit the mold of the group I'm building here, and I would've done a little dance in front of everyone if he had made it back to me at 8.10. Alas …

8.10 -- James Robinson

If all goes according to plan, I'm probably just going to ride Kamara and Montgomery all season long, with WR usually occupying my two flex spots. But how could I turn Robinson down 94 picks in? Even with the presence of rookie first-rounder Travis Etienne, Robinson figures to see plenty of work in an offense that promises to run the ball heavily under Urban Meyer. Robinson proved he's effective in all phases of the game as a rookie, and so while Etienne will see more targets, it's not out of the question that Robinson ends up with, say, 225 carries and 40 targets this season. Pessimism about his usage makes sense, but I couldn't pass at RB33. Who else I considered: I admittedly would have been left scrambling if Robinson hadn't been there, because I had him queued up from the second I made my last pick. If he wasn't there, I would have strongly considered AJ Dillon, though I almost certainly would have just made my next pick here instead.

9.03 -- Mecole Hardman

Okay, I'm buying into training camp hype just a little. By all accounts, Hardman has solidified himself as the No. 2 WR for the Chiefs, and while that hasn't been a particularly high-usage role in the past, he doesn't need a lot of targets to be worth this role. Sammy Watkins typically saw between 5.5 and 6.5 targets per game as Tyreek Hill's top understudy, and if Hardman hits the low end of that range, he could still end up with 900-plus yards and a handful of touchdowns, given his big-play ability. If he's on the higher end, well … he's put up 1,098 yards and 10 touchdowns on just 103 targets so far in his career. Who else I considered: Jaylen Waddle is another potential superstar with big play ability, and he was certainly under consideration. As were Marvin Jones and Rashod Batement. 

10.10 -- Emmanuel Sanders 

Sanders is quickly becoming one of my favorite WR sleepers because it sure sounds like he's pretty much locked in as the No. 2 WR for the Bills. In 2020, Cole Beasley finished as WR27 in that role, and I still think Sanders is a better player. He was on pace for 91-1,168-5 in the seven games he played without Michael Thomas last season, and Buffalo's is a much better passing offense than New Orleans last season. He was an easy pick here, and someone I'm always looking for at this point in drafts, no matter what my team looks like. Who else I considered: Rondale Moore or T.Y. Hilton would have been fine here. 

11.03 -- Rondale Moore

And I got my guy the next time up. Moore also numbers among my favorite sleepers at wide receiver, and I love adding his upside to my bench. He might be a bit better in full-PPR leagues, because he figures to be a high-volume, low-ADoT receiver, someone who helps move the chains but has to do the heavy lifting after the catch. Still, in any format, I think he has the upside to emerge as a starting-caliber Fantasy WR, because his after-the-catch ability could be the thing that unlocks this offense's full potential. If he hits, expect Kyler Murray to be in the QB1 conversation. Maybe I should have waited to take Murray in the fifth round instead of Jackson in the fourth. Oh well! Who else I considered: Hilton would have been the other option, but I'm still trying to stack upside at WR, and I think there's a better chance Moore hits his ceiling than Hilton, given the questions around the Colts offense. 

12.10 -- Jalen Reagor

More upside, and as you can see, I'm primarily trying to focus on guys who are on the upswing. Reagor's rookie season was a disaster, and players who produce as little as he did rarely go on to become Fantasy stars. However, the shoulder and thumb injuries he dealt with at the beginning of the season may be a good explanation for why he struggled so much. That's my hope, at least, though early reports out of camp haven't been super promising. Hopefully, he can put it all together and make for a dynamic duo with Devonta Smith. Who else I considered: Rashaad Penny. We know the Seahawks want to run the ball, and we know Chris Carson struggled with injuries last season. Penny has struggled to make an impact while dealing with injuries so far, but I'm betting the former first-round pick could still make an impact if he gets the chance. 

13.03 -- Devontae Booker

I made another bet here -- that Penny would make it back to me the next time around. With Saquon Barkley's status for the start of the season still somewhat up in the air, Booker could be in line for a Fantasy-relevant role early on. He's got three-down skills, and would figure to be a starting-caliber option if Barkley was forced to miss time. Who else I considered: It was Penny here as well, but gamble didn't pay off, as Penny was taken at 13.09. It happens. 

14.10 -- Parris Campbell

The thinking here is a lot like with Reagor. Campbell has done next to nothing in the NFL through two seasons, though injuries that have cost him 23 of his first 32 career games are to blame here as well. The coaching staff apparently still loves Campbell, and he figures to have a sizable role in the offense as long as he is healthy. That's no sure bet, and neither is the Colts' offense, but at this point in the draft, he represents some upside. Who else I considered: Devin Singletary. I think he's going to be the more productive of the Bills running backs and he went 66 picks later. However, I don't think either is ever going to be much more than an RB3 in this offense, so there just wasn't enough upside for me to chase, especially since I feel pretty set ar RB already.

15.03 -- Sony Michel

There probably isn't a ton of upside in the Patriots backfield for Michel or Damien Harris, given their lack of usage in the passing game, but there should still be plenty of opportunities to carry the ball. Michel was very good in his limited opportunities in 2020, rushing for 5.7 yards per carry. Michel averaged 10.6 .5-PPR points per game in his six starts, and could at least be a useful fill-in. I'm willing to drop him the first time someone with real upside comes available, of course. Who else I considered: Xavier Jones, who does potentially have some upside if something were to happen to Darrell Henderson. He's a great late-round flier because that Rams offense has historically been very productive for running backs. 

16.10 -- Vikings DST

They play the Bengals in Week 1, and the Bengals offense could be a mess to start the season. This will obviously be a rotating spot in my lineup, of course, and there's a decent chance I change my mind on my Week 1 DST well before the games kick off. Who else I considered: Some other DST with a good Week 1 matchup. You don't have to give this much thought, because you should be waiting until the last round and thinking about only the first week or two when picking a DST.