Fantasy Football 2023 Draft Prep: Sleepers 1.0 will help you find winners in the late rounds

Who should you go after once you get to Round 8? Here are some ideas

One of my favorite parts of draft prep season is finding the sleepers who will make a difference on my Fantasy teams. The more names I have in my back pocket once we get to Round 8 and later, the better.

In fact, my goal with back-half-of-draft picks is to either find inexpensive starters who could easily outperform their value or collect players who could become hot waiver-wire names within the first month of the season. Every name except one on this list qualifies under one of those two goals.

• Dave's Breakouts 1.0 | Busts 1.0

Count on this list growing as the preseason draws near. And remember, it's all about where a player is expected to go in a draft, not about whether you've heard of him before. All of these players are expected to go in Round 8 or later in one-QB drafts.  

Sleeper quarterbacks

When quarterbacks get old, their play and stats tumble fast. Is that what happened to Rodgers last year, or did injuries and a lukewarm passing offense for half the season harpoon his numbers? You could argue for the latter since his worst stretch (61.7% completion rate, 4.3% TD rate, one game with 20-plus Fantasy points) came in Weeks 5 through 9 when he played through a broken thumb before Christian Watson broke out. When Watson became relevant, his numbers popped a little bit in Weeks 10 through 13 (63.2% completion rate, a massive 7.5% TD rate and two games out of four with 23 or more Fantasy points) before cooling off in Weeks 15 through 18. The Jets had no problem letting their quarterbacks not named Zach Wilson attempt over 40 passes per game last year, and their offense is literally a version of what Rodgers won back-to-back MVP titles in. Tack on a pretty good receiving corps led by talented second-year breakout candidate Garrett Wilson, and Rodgers is well worth the double-digit round pick to begin 2023 as your Fantasy starter.

If we're drafting today, and I wanted to spend my last pick on a quarterback who could be the rags-to-riches story that Justin Fields was last year, it would be Love. What we've seen from him in the NFL isn't impressive -- three touchdowns and a 60% completion rate over 83 pass attempts, many of which were dinks and dunks -- but his mobility is still just as dangerous as when he was in college. He also has no one impeding him from playing in the Packers offense, which should be tailored to his strengths. Lining up with Christian Watson worked for Aaron Rodgers (which you probably just read), and it should give some sort of lift for Love too. Preseason reports from Green Bay will go a long way in determining whether Love deserves your late-round attention or not.

Sleeper running backs

It's been dangerous to trust a Buffalo running back since Josh Allen became a massive part of the Bills offense. But what if it's a bruising back who has been good at finding the end zone and one without much competition for his kind of role? Harris, 26, finds himself as the best candidate to lead the Bills run game on running downs. He was also New England's answer in short-yardage goal-line situations, cashing in on 8 of 11 carries from 3 yards or closer in 2021 and 2 of 2 such carries in 2022. But lost in the sauce is a sneaky-good rushing average of at least 4.4 yards per carry in 2022, 2021 and 2020 (5.0 then) along with modest finishes in yards after contact and runs of 5-plus yards. Harris is what he is -- a serviceable runner in a great offense. Guys like that are worth taking in the middle rounds as low-risk quality bench depth.

What will it take for you to believe in Foreman? Averaging 4.3 yards per run with modest results in terms of avoiding tackles and succeeding against eight in the box? What about averaging 4.6 yards per run and thriving on after-contact metrics and even being useful at explosive run and avoided tackle rates? The one-time bust has rejuvenated his career as a backup-turned-starter on two separate teams and now has an opportunity to begin a season working in a tandem with a talented but unproven lead guy in Khalil Herbert. Bears coach Matt Eberflus raved over his size, mentioned his ability to burst downhill between two defenders for extra yards and added that there would be competition between them for playing time. Foreman's worst-case scenario is splitting with Herbert but still grinding for a few short-yardage touchdowns. That's enough to call him a bench RB in Fantasy.

People who take Christian McCaffrey in Round 1 will be rooting hard against this sleeper pick. So too might those who spend a late pick on Elijah Mitchell. But Fantasy managers are all too familiar with the 49ers history of injured running backs, plus Mason is actually a good, physical one-cut runner who excelled in limited playing time last year. A 55-yard garbage-time jaunt against Seattle inflated his overall numbers, which is why it's still impressive for Mason to average 4.8 yards per carry excluding that run. Sure, Mason will be a hot waiver add if McCaffrey were to miss time, but he also might be the change-up to CMC thanks to his tough style. Mason will be among my last picks in Best Ball drafts this summer.

Sleeper wide receivers

The way Osborn finished last year probably helped the Vikings come to an easy decision to cut Adam Thielen this offseason. In his final five games, Osborn turned an 18.3% target share into 17.4 PPR points per game. His ADOT left a lot to be desired (7.71) but the short-area targets he got from Kirk Cousins while playing in the slot helped his catch rate (78.9%), plus he picked up 6.8 YAC/reception, meaning that his breakaway speed made a real difference. It's reasonable to be a little worried about Kirk Cousins supporting Osborn as well as Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson on a weekly basis -- only once in 2022 did all three score at least 11 PPR points in the same game. However, if the Vikings passing game constricts to these three being regular targets instead of four like it was last year with Thielen, then there should be more weekly opportunities for all three to be involved.

Let's do some math: The Chiefs didn't re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster nor Mecole Hardman this offseason. Combined, they averaged 11.8 targets and totaled six receiving touchdowns through the Chiefs' first eight games. There's no doubt that Kadarius Toney will lay claim to many of those targets for however many games he's healthy, but so too should Moore -- and Toney will get drafted first. There isn't a lot of statistical evidence that suggests Moore will break out; it's more about being on the right team at the right time. Besides, someone as slippery as Moore should be just as big of a problem for defensive players as anyone else on the Chiefs ... besides Travis Kelce. You could do worse than tossing a late-round dart on a young Chiefs receiver with a good pedigree.

Sleeper tight end

We're banking on volume for McBride, because there isn't a whole lot else from this offense to bank on. McBride's playing time rose after Zach Ertz got hurt last year, and his target share followed. In total, McBride collected 26 catches on 36 targets for 9.3 yards per catch. That's a good start, particularly for a player who pass blocked on 16 of the 289 pass plays he was in for. The Cardinals offense will be completely different in 2023 and should involve the tight end much more than last year. Don't forget, McBride is 6-foot-4, 260 pounds, has big strong hands and can run better than your typical big man. The Cardinals will need him.