Fantasy Football Week 16 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em Running Backs: Hampton poised to rise if Cowboys are shorthanded
Running backs you want in Week 16 lineups and those you should avoid
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1 min read
I'm writing this column Wednesday afternoon, and I currently have Omarion Hampton ranked No. 25 at running back. But he could move up in my rankings if the Cowboys are without standout defensive lineman Quinnen Williams (concussion) in Week 16.
In five games with Williams, Dallas has limited the rushing production for Ashton Jeanty (six carries for 7 yards), Saquon Barkley (10 carries for 22 yards), Kareem Hunt (14 carries for 58 yards), and Aaron Jones (12 carries for 34 yards). Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 18 carries for 103 yards and four touchdowns, but this run defense has been tough since Williams joined the Cowboys via trade from the Jets.
Now, prior to getting Williams, almost every running back had success against Dallas, with seven guys scoring at least 13.9 PPR points in the first nine games of the season. And I'm hopeful Hampton can reach that total if Williams is out.
In two games since coming back from a seven-game absence with a foot injury, we've seen Hampton play less snaps than Kimani Vidal. But Hampton still had 13 carries for 56 yards and two catches for 11 yards and a touchdown on two targets against Philadelphia in Week 14. And he had 15 carries for 61 yards and one catch for 4 yards on one target at Kansas City in Week 15.
He's getting enough work to be considered a No. 2 Fantasy running back in the majority of leagues. And now he might have an easier matchup if Williams can't play.
Keep an eye on the injury report for the Cowboys this week. And keep an eye on my rankings as well. Hampton could be a significant riser before Sunday.
RBs to Start
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Swift had a huge game in Week 15 against Cleveland with 18 carries for 98 yards and two touchdowns, and he scored 22.6 PPR points. He's now scored at least 20.8 PPR points in two of his past three games. The one game where he didn't reach that total was Week 14 at Green Bay, but he still had 13 carries for 63 yards and three catches for 19 yards on four targets. The Packers are now down two members of their front seven with Devonte Wyatt (ankle) and Micah Parsons (knee) injured, and Swift could be used more in the passing game if Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden III (ankle) are out. I like Swift as a No. 2 Fantasy running back in all leagues, and I would use Kyle Monangai as a flex.
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Dowdle hasn't run well lately, with his yards per carry at 3.2 or less in four of his past five games. Thankfully, his Fantasy production has remained constant, with at least 11.4 PPR points in five of his past six outings. He also has at least 17 total touches in five of his past six games, and he should get plenty of work again in Week 16 against Tampa Bay. Chuba Hubbard will also have a role, and the Panthers will probably lean on both guys in this matchup. The Buccaneers are No. 10 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, and six guys in the past five games against Tampa Bay have scored at least 11.4 PPR points. Dowdle should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy running back in all leagues, and I like Hubbard as a low-end flex.
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Gainwell has a tough matchup in Week 16 at Detroit, and the Lions are No. 1 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Along with that, Detroit is No. 5 in fewest receptions allowed to running backs, but I still like Gainwell as a No. 2 Fantasy running back in PPR. Four running backs in the past four games against the Lions have actually scored at least 13.1 PPR points, and Gainwell should still make plays in the passing game against this defense. He has at least six catches and six targets in four of his past five games, and he scored at least 8.7 PPR points in all of those outings with just his receiving totals alone. And in those four games where his receptions were high, he scored at least 16.2 PPR points, and he should be needed in this game if the Steelers are chasing points. I'm excited to start Gainwell in PPR in Week 16.
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Henderson exploded for 30.1 PPR points in Week 15 against Buffalo, and this was his best game in tandem with Rhamondre Stevenson. Henderson had 14 carries for 148 yards and two touchdowns, including a 52-yard run in the second quarter and a 65-yard run in the fourth, and he added two catches for 13 yards on three targets. Baltimore is a tougher matchup in Week 16, but the Ravens have allowed five running backs in their past four games to score at least 15.2 PPR points. And Baltimore just lost linebacker Teddye Buchanan (knee) for the season. Henderson is worth using as a No. 2 Fantasy running back in all leagues, and I like Stevenson as a flex.
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Tracy has played three full games under interim coach Mike Kafka, and he has scored at least 16 PPR points in all three, with at least 18 total touches in each outing. He just had his best game of the season against Washington in Week 15 with 15 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown, three catches for 27 yards and a touchdown on three targets. The Vikings aren't an easy matchup in Week 16, but two of Tracy's best games under Kafka were against Detroit and Green Bay. And Minnesota has allowed four running backs in the past four games to score at least 11.2 PPR points. I like Tracy as a No. 2 Fantasy running back in all leagues.
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Jones has struggled as a Fantasy running back in the past four games, with 9.5 PPR points or less in each outing against Green Bay, Seattle, Washington, and Dallas. He hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 10, but he has the chance for a quality outing in Week 16 at the Giants. New York is No. 2 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, and nine guys in the past seven games against the Giants have scored at least 11 PPR points. Jones will continue to share work with Jordan Mason, who is worth using as a flex option in deeper leagues, but I like Jones as a No. 2 Fantasy running back in all leagues.
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Sleepers (Start/Sit)
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Zonovan Knight (ankle) was placed on injured reserve, which should allow Carter to be the lead running back for the Cardinals in Week 16. He has two games this season with double digits in carries in Week 5 against Tennessee and Week 15 at Houston, and Carter scored at least 12 PPR points in both outings. He hasn't run well this season at 3.3 yards per carry, but he does have at least four catches in three of his past five games. The Falcons have allowed nine running backs to score at least 11.1 PPR points in their past nine games, and Carter is worth using as a low-end No. 2 running back in the majority of leagues in Week 16.
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The Cardinals have allowed the second-most Fantasy points to opposing running backs in their past five games, behind only the Jets. Over that span, seven running backs have scored at least 10.8 PPR points -- with nine total touchdowns -- including two tandems in Blake Corum and Kyren Williams in Week 14 and Jawhar Jordan and Woody Marks in Week 15. That bodes well for Bijan Robinson and Allgeier, who have scored a touchdown in three of their past six games. I like Allgeier as a flex in this game.
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I'll put Devin Neal (hamstring) in this spot if he's able to play and Alvin Kamara (knee) remains out, but we'll be waiting on injury updates for those two running backs before trusting Estime as a flex option in Week 16 against the Jets. The matchup is amazing since the Jets have allowed the most Fantasy points to opposing running backs in the past five weeks. Over that span, seven guys have scored at least 13.5 PPR points against the Jets with 14 total touchdowns, and hopefully Estime can be the lead running back for the Saints ahead of Evan Hull. In Week 15 against Carolina, when Neal was injured, Estime had three carries for 11 yards and three catches for 39 yards on three targets, while Hull had four carries for 12 yards. Estime could be one of the best surprise Fantasy options in Week 16 if Neal and Kamara are out.
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It's risky to trust Tucker as even a flex option in Week 16 in the majority of leagues, but he could find the end zone for the third game in a row if Tampa Bay continues to use him as a goal-line option in tandem with Bucky Irving. He hasn't done much besides score in those two outings against New Orleans and Atlanta with a combined 11 carries for 38 yards and no targets, but Tucker could help Fantasy managers in a desperate situation in deeper leagues. The Panthers are No. 9 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, and they have allowed six rushing touchdowns to running backs in their past four games.
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RBs to Sit
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Walker's best game this season was in Week 11 at the Rams when he scored 20.1 PPR points. He did everything in that outing that we wanted, which was score a touchdown and work in the passing game with three catches for 44 yards on three targets. That's the last time Walker scored a touchdown, which is a span of four games, and he's combined for 6.7 PPR points in his past two contests against Atlanta and Indianapolis with 19 carries for 46 yards and two catches for 1 yard on two targets over that span. The Rams have only allowed three rushing touchdowns to running backs all season and are No. 2 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to the position. Walker is only worth using as a flex option at best in Week 16.
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I like Kenneth Gainwell this week, despite the tough matchup against Detroit, because of his role in the passing game. But I'm worried about Warren, who should be considered a flex option at best. While he's been productive of late with at least 12.4 PPR points in three of his past four games, he's needed touchdowns to help his overall total. He hasn't had more than 68 total yards in five games in a row, and he has 10 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets over that span. Warren will be fine if he finds the end zone, but the Lions have allowed just five total touchdowns to running backs since Week 5. This could be another disappointing game for Warren, who scored just 7.8 PPR points in Week 15 against Miami.
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I had Pollard as a sit in this column last week, and I was wrong when he had 14 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown and one catch for 8 yards on two targets at San Francisco. That's now consecutive games with over 100 rushing yards, and he has scored at least 18.2 PPR points in back-to-back contests against the Browns and 49ers. I'm still skeptical of Pollard having another solid performance in Week 16 against Kansas City since the Chiefs are No. 5 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Only seven running backs have scored at least 11 PPR points against the Chiefs this season, and I expect them to keep Pollard in check. He should only be used as a flex option in most leagues in Week 16.
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Hunt was miserable in Week 15 against the Chargers with six carries for 12 yards and one catch for 8 yards on two targets. He's now scored single digits in PPR in three games in a row, which coincides with Isiah Pacheco returning from a three-game absence with a knee injury, but the Chiefs offensive line has also been a mess over that span. And now Patrick Mahomes (knee) is out for the season. The Titans are also No. 7 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to running backs in the past five weeks, and only three guys have scored at least 11.8 PPR points during that stretch. I'm hesitant to use Hunt as even a flex option in most leagues in Week 16.
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Bust Alert (Start/Sit)
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Jeanty has struggled in the past two games against Denver and Philadelphia with a combined 14.0 PPR points over that span. He's been at 35 rushing yards or less in three games in a row, and he has one touchdown on a reception since Week 10. The Texans are No. 7 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs for the season and No. 6 in the past five weeks, and Houston has allowed just two total touchdowns to running backs over that span. The good news for Jeanty is Geno Smith (shoulder) could return in Week 16, but this is still a tough matchup for the Raiders on the road. I would only use Jeanty as a low-end No. 2 running back at best in the majority of leagues.
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