Fantasy Football Draft Prep 2023: Drafting from No. 9 overall in a PPR league
Here's how it played out picking from the ninth position
By
Dave Richard
•
4 min read
There feels like a consensus top-three picks (Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey and Ja'Marr Chase), followed by a consensus next-five picks (Austin Ekeler, Cooper Kupp, Bijan Robinson, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce).
That makes things easy when you're picking first through eighth, but it kinda stinks for the manager picking ninth.
So what did I do when I picked ninth overall in our recent PPR mock draft? Simple: I took the player who I thought had the best shot to be just as good as anyone picked in the first eight picks AND was also at the thinnest remaining position among the elite-tier players. For me, that was Stefon Diggs. Last year he averaged 19.8 PPR points per game, way better than the 16.4 he had in 2021, but not quite as mega as the 23.4 average he had in Weeks 1 through 9 before Josh Allen hurt his arm. It's those numbers along with Diggs' overall track record with the Bills that helped me take him over CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams and A.J. Brown. And I took him over all the other running backs (I really love Tony Pollard's upside) with the hope I'd land a stellar RB in Round 2 ... maybe even Pollard himself.
I didn't get Pollard. Or Saquon Barkley. Or Nick Chubb. So I had to settle for Derrick Henry and his 19-plus PPR per-game average over the past two seasons. Boo-hoo.
I loved this start and I definitely love the team I collected, making the most of building from the nine-spot:
1.09: Stefon Diggs, WR, BUF
2.04: Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
3.09: Najee Harris, RB, PIT
4.04: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, TEN
5.09: Justin Fields, QB, CHI
6.04: Diontae Johnson, WR, PIT
7.09: Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
8.04: Brian Robinson, RB, WAS
9.09: Zay Flowers, WR, BAL
10.04: Evan Engram, TE, JAC
11.09: Jakobi Meyers, WR, LV
12.04: Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI
13.09: Ty Chandler, RB, MIN
14.04: Evan Hull, RB, IND
I felt like taking a running back like Harris in Round 3 was the obvious choice for a few of reasons:
- The next-best running back was Aaron Jones, and there feels like a small drop-off in expectations from Harris (a lead back in an ascending offense) to Jones (a quality runner who loses goal-line chances in an offense that probably isn't ascending).
- I was certain that one of the three teams picking after me in Round 3/before me in Round 4 would have snapped up Harris, even though one of them already had two running backs.
- I viewed the remaining receivers such as Jerry Jeudy, Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley all in the same tier in PPR. One of them could certainly make it back to me.
I liked my rationale and still believe in my thought process here even though all four receivers got snagged within the five picks after 33rd overall. When I was up in Round 4, my options were to either buy into another running back (I had two, we only need to start two), reach for a quarterback (I'll never do this in a one-QB league) or take the best available receiver. That receiver was Hopkins. I figure in a PPR league there will be enough games where both he and Henry will be quality starters -- in a half- or non-PPR league this pick probably would have been Amari Cooper or Deebo Samuel.
Despite two Titans with my first four picks, I felt free to go in any direction I wanted with my next several picks. When I was up at 57th overall I noticed that Justin Fields and Justin Herbert were the last two quarterbacks from my second tier and all three teams picking after me needed a signal-caller. This was an easy decision -- I took Fields figuring both he and Herbert would not make it back to me. Herbert was picked two spots later.
I went for value with my next three picks, collecting Diontae Johnson for his PPR upside in Round 6 (he was the only decent receiver left) and running backs Alvin Kamara and Brian Robinson in Rounds 7 and 8.
And remember how I used my opponents' rosters to help me make decisions on taking Harris in Round 3 and Fields in Round 5? I did that again in Round 9 when I noticed that the drafters in Picks 10, 11 and 12 all had tight ends already. That made me confident that Evan Engram would slide back to me in Round 10, which he did. It felt like I got Zay Flowers and all his drool-worthy upside for free. Pay attention to your opponents' rosters and needs -- they can help you make calculated draft decisions!
As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We also award one point for every reception. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE and FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
Favorite pick
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Look, I understand why you'd fade him because he's getting close to 30 years old and isn't a big-time pass-catcher, but you shouldn't lose sight of the fact that he's half-cyborg who has continued decimating defenses for as long as he's been around. More significantly, he kept churning for big games last year when the rest of his offense was in shambles! The O-line should be improved to a degree and the passing game is back to being at least respectable. Henry will feel like a steal as a Round 2 pick.
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Pick I might regret
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Obviously the pick wasn't ideal since I was hoping for a better receiver to make his way back to me in Round 4. It's a double-whammy because I also took Henry, so now I have two playmakers in an offense that hasn't been historically offensive. Like I said, I expect both to be at least solid on a week-to-week basis, and the value I got on Henry was awesome. This was a need-based pick, and those don't always feel good after the fact.
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Make or break player
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When I watched Fields throw over three days at Bears minicamp, I thought he missed too many throws to be an elite passer but made enough throws to be pretty good. Having D.J. Moore helped him a lot. I know the Bears want him to scramble less, but I'm banking on him still posting as many as 800 rush yards and getting at least nominally better throwing the football. If he does what I think he's capable of, he'll be good for Fantasy. If he goes beyond that, then he'll break the top-five quarterback ranks pretty easily.
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