Wild Card player props: Fantasy Football analyst locks in plays for every game, from Tom Brady to Josh Allen
Dave Richard drops his favorite player prop picks for the wild-card round
By
Dave Richard
•
5 min read
There's a void in our lives when the Fantasy Football season ends and the NFL playoffs begin. We play Fantasy because we like having players to root for in multiple games. We play Fantasy because we like to make winning decisions when we set our lineups. We play Fantasy because we love the feeling of winning.
The easiest way to re-create those feelings during the postseason is by taking some player props. The oddsmakers test all of us with overs and unders on players stats -- it's on us to get them right.
I've been making player prop picks all season with my pals from SportsLine. It's not as easy as it looks, but when the rationale of taking an over or an under matches up with an affordable price, it's worth doing.
Here's a look at my favorite player prop from every game this weekend.
- More Props from SportsLine: PropStarz | La Canfora
All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Kenneth Walker Under 16.5 rush attempts -127
- SEAHAWKS: Haven't fielded a RB with more than 12 rushes in two games against San Francisco this season.
- HISTORY: The last Seahawks RB with 17 or more rush attempts against the 49ers was DeeJay Dallas on Nov. 1, 2020 (in a 10-point Seattle win).
- 49ERS: Have seen a RB get 17 or more rush attempts in just three games this season.
Walker's a terrific running back, but one who can help in the passing game a little, especially when a tough run defense deters an offense from handoffs. Pete Carroll may wish to run the ball a lot, but his history suggests he gives up on it in this specific matchup. If you think the 49ers can pile on the points, Walker's unlikely to see 17 or more carries.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Keenan Allen Over 6.5 receptions -119
- ALLEN: Has caught seven or more passes in four of his past five games. The one game he didn't do it in? Week 17 against the Rams, when Mike Williams caught seven passes on 10 targets and Justin Herbert threw a season-low 28 times.
- ALLEN: Has played in the slot on 60% of his snaps since coming back from his hamstring injury.
- JAGUARS: Have let up a 72.2% catch rate to receivers lined up in the slot in their past five games.
- JAGUARS: Have also developed an improved run defense lately (2.8 yards per carry to running backs in their past three). That could lead to the Chargers throwing a little more often.
Allen is the safest receiver for Herbert to throw to, and if Mike Williams isn't close to 100 percent healthy or misses the game, then Allen's target volume should spike. This is my favorite player prop of the week.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Josh Allen Under 33.5 pass attempts -115
- ALLEN: Has been under 34 pass attempts in eight games this year. In six of those eight, the Bills have won by 10-plus points. In the other eight games when he's gone over, the Bills have either lost or won by four or fewer points seven times (one blowout win when he's gone over).
- DOLPHINS: Won't have Tua Tagovailoa and may not shove an injured Teddy Bridgewater into action. Either way, in each of the five games Tagovailoa has either gotten hurt or missed the game entirely, the opposing quarterback has thrown 33 or fewer passes. That's good for Allen.
The Dolphins have had a hard time moving the ball, much less scoring, with Skylar Thompson at quarterback. He's played 199 snaps and played three of them inside his opponents' 10-yard line. This figures to be an easy lift for Allen.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Graham Gano Over 1.5 field goals made -111
- VIKINGS: Last week was the first time in nine games that a kicker did not make two or more field goals against the Vikings. The culprit was Chicago, who may have lost on purpose in order to earn the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.
- VIKINGS: Have seen a kicker hit multiple field goals in all but three games this year. Their defense bends but doesn't break.
- GANO: has made 90.6% of his field goals this year.
The Giants-Vikings game has a chance to be high-scoring (it has an over/under of 48 points, the highest of the week as of Thursday night). The Giants don't mind getting conservative in the red zone and the Vikings seem to do whatever they can to limit red-zone touchdowns. It's a match made in player-prop heaven.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Joe Mixon Over 3.5 receptions -131
- MIXON: Has five or more receptions in each of his past three. The possible correlation is that he's seeing more targets as Joe Burrow throws shorter given the recent issues with the Bengals offensive line.
- RAVENS: When they blitzed Burrow last week, they got beat deep. When they didn't they forced Burrow into shorter throws, which boosted Mixon's output.
- RAVENS: Have been outstanding against the run since acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith, but running backs have averaged 8.2 yards per catch.
The Bengals coaching staff will undoubtedly try to run the ball, but their best option to utilize Mixon is via the pass. And while it's true Mixon does not play on many third downs, he has seen eight targets on first-and-10 and five targets on second down over his past two games.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Tom Brady Over 42.5 pass attempts -104
- BRADY: Asking any quarterback to go over 40 pass attempts is a lot -- except for Brady. He's been over this mark in each of his past six full games (throw out last week) and in 11 of his past 13 full games.
- COWBOYS: Their run defense has actually stepped up over their past six games, holding RBs to 3.7 yards per carry with one score allowed on the ground. They have let up 8.1 yards per catch to backs in that span, however.
- BUCCANEERS: Remain first in the league in plays per game (68.2) and first in pass rate (66.7%).
The Cowboys pass defense hasn't been nearly as good as it was earlier this season, and the Bucs have built confidence in their pass game over their past six quarters with Brady. It's unlikely they'll turn to Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White to spearhead the offense at this point.
