Angels 2021 season preview: Projected lineup, rotation and three things to know

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The Los Angeles Angels are trying again. Despite employing the game's best player, the Angels haven't made the postseason since 2014. They haven't won a playoff series since 2009, back when said best player was just months into his professional career. The Angels have suffered through five consecutive losing seasons, including last year, when they stumbled to a 12-24 start that assured they would be in the expanded playoff field.

Predictably, the Angels changed management over the winter. General manager Billy Eppler is out, Perry Minasian (formerly of the Braves) is in. Minasian didn't swing for the fences, the way Eppler did hen he hired Joe Maddon and signed Anthony Rendon, so much as he aimed for the gaps. Minasian traded for Jose Iglesias, Dexter Fowler, Alex Cobb, and Raisel Iglesias, and signed Jose Quintana, Kurt Suzuki, and Alex Claudio. It's not the first time the Angels have taken such an approach, but will it be the first time it works?

Let's find out together.

Win total projections, odds

2021 Sportsline projection: 77-85
World Series odds (via William Hill Sportsbook): +4000
2020 record: 26-34

Projected lineup

David Fletcher, 2B
Mike Trout, CF
Anthony Rendon, 3B
Shohei Ohtani, DH
Justin Upton, LF
Albert Pujols, 1B
Dexter Fowler, RF
Jose Iglesias, SS
Max Stassi, C

Bench: C Kurt Suzuki; 1B/OF Jared Walsh; INF Franklin Barreto; OF Juan Lagares

The Angels are, by and large, returning the same group of position players. Fowler and Iglesias are the lone new starters, though Suzuki figures to share the catching duties with Stassi. One interesting development worth watching is how Maddon phases in Walsh. He homered nine times in 99 at-bats last season; that, plus his left-handedness, could give Maddon enough cover to bench Pujols more frequently in what could be his final year.

Projected rotation

RHP Dylan Bundy
LHP Andrew Heaney
RHP Alex Cobb
RHP Griffin Canning
LHP Jose Quintana
RHP Shohei Ohtani

Bullpen: RHP Raisel Iglesias, RHP Felix Pena, RHP Mike Mayers, LHP Alex Claudio

Every winter the Angels seem to be a starter short of a workable rotation. Their efforts this offseason saw them trade for Cobb and sign Quintana, both of whom are probably a touch underrated from a national perspective. Cobb had a 106 ERA+ in 10 starts last season, and has almost always been a productive pitcher when healthy (though his health is hardly guaranteed). Quintana, meanwhile, has never had an ERA+ below 93. The Angels have had their fair share of reasonable rotation bets go south the past few seasons -- Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, Julio Teheran -- so we'll see, but you can understand what Minasian was thinking when he stocked his rotation the way he did.

Now, onto three pertinent topics about your 2021 Angels.

1. Can the Angels break their playoff drought?

Let's face it, this is the most pressing matter so far as the Angels are concerned. It's embarrassing that, this far into Trout's career, he hasn't won so much as a playoff game, let alone a series. Heck, getting to the postseason has even proven to be a challenge.

While it's impossible to accurately divine all of what lies ahead this season, it's fair to make some assumptions about the American League playoff picture. Presuming the Yankees win the East, that leaves the Blue Jays and the Rays fighting alongside the second- and third-place finishers in the Central and the West (both, seemingly, three-team races) for a spot in the Wild Card Game. In other words, there are probably nine playoff-contending teams in the AL, and only five of them can make the cut.

Will the Angels be one of those five? They might be. SportsLine has them down for just 77 wins, but PECOTA (86 and the final team in) and ZiPS (84 and three games back) each have them in the ballpark.

The Angels seem okay, then, from an aggregate projection standpoint. Where they've stumbled in the past is, in part, because of lacking depth. This year might be a little different. The Angels could begin the season with the following players at the alt site:

We're not saying all of those players are good, or that they'll necessarily prove to be worthwhile depth. What we are saying is that it takes closer to a 30-player roster to get through a 162-game season, and that it's probably a sign of progress that players like Sandoval and Rengifo are being treated like depth pieces rather than roster locks.

2. Ohtani, Adell remain x-factors

We wanted to devote an entire subhead to the two young players coming off miserable seasons who will go a long way in determining how this and future campaigns will play out for the Angels: two-way player Shohei Ohtani and outfielder Jo Adell.

Ohtani, 27 come July, is entering his fourth season in the majors. In the first three, he gleaned most of his value from hitting, not pitching -- the inverse of what scouts expected when he first signed on. Indeed, Ohtani has batted .269/.340/.503 (125 OPS+) with 47 home runs and 29 stolen bases in 967 plate appearances; comparatively, he has appeared in just 12 big-league games as a pitcher, largely because of injury.

The 2021 season feels like an inflection point for Ohtani as a starting pitcher. If he falters, or if he again gets hurt, it might be time for the Angels to reconsider what they ask from him in the future. They could have him pick up a defensive position, likely the outfield, and become a full-time hitter. Alternatively, they could turn him into a different kind of two-way player by limiting his pitching to high-leverage situations. Either way, there's a lot riding on this season as it pertains to his future role.

Adell is facing plenty of pressure as well, having hit for a 31 OPS+ in his rookie season. We wrote about his struggles in greater detail recently:

Between now and that indeterminable date, Adell has a lot to work on. He struggled with pitch recognition, fishing after too many pitches below the zone and even looking uncomfortable on takes. He didn't show good bat-to-ball skills, either, and his 64.6 in-zone contact rate ranked 467th out of 475 players with at least 25 trips to the plate. Predictably, Adell tinkered with his swing in an attempt to find something that worked; nothing took: his .505 OPS in August was superior to his .437 OPS in September.
For as poor as the results were, Adell still showed the explosive bat and foot speed that made him a top prospect in the first place. He didn't connect often enough, but when he did, his average exit velocity (90.6 mph) ranked in the 78th percentile. His sprint speed, meanwhile, was in the 98th percentile, according to Statcast. Those innate traits are one reason to hold out hope. Another is that Adell didn't spend much time in the upper minors before last year. Coming into this season, he'll have 385 total plate appearances at the Double- and Triple-A levels; Fernando Tatis Jr. skipped Triple-A and debuted in the majors when he was 20 years old, and he had 459 plate appearances at Double-A.

Adell seems likely to begin the season in the minors following the Fowler acquisition. That's fine. At some point, the Angels are going to need him. And if, like Ohtani, Adell can deliver when he's called upon, then there's a real chance they'll be playing in October.

3. Trout milestone watch

While we're here, we might as well check in on Trout's Baseball Reference page as he heads into his age-29 season. Believe it or not, he'll turn 30 in August. That can be taken a few different ways (i.e., we're all old), but we're choosing to view it as a positive that his historic production is starting to accumulate in the form of some very large numbers.

Trout hit his 300th home run last season, and it's reasonable to think he'll get into the 330s this year. That would position him for a run at 400 sometime in 2023. He also stole his 200th career base. His second run batted in this year will be his 800th career. Trout is 120 hits away from No. 1,500. He's averaged 136 knocks over the last three full seasons, suggesting he should be able to get halfway to 3,000 by year's end. And so on.

On a nerdier front, Trout will enter this season with a 1.000 career OPS. His 74.6 Wins Above Replacement rank 52nd all-time. If Trout has a five-win season -- a relative disappointment by his gaudy standards -- he'll slide into 41st, in between Pete Rose and Joe DiMaggio. An eight-win year (he's done it six times already) will put him just behind Ken Griffey Jr., at 37th. If Trout can pop his fourth 10-win season, he'll already have amassed the 34th most WAR in recorded history. Trout turns 30 -- thirty -- in August.

So, yes, if you're a fan of Trout bean-counting, this is going to be a fun year for you (though haven't they all).