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Over the last month, Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte has been swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball, so it's potentially surprising to see him at +550 in the latest MLB home run odds ahead of a Monday home game against the Mariners in a game where the over/under is 9.5. Marte has an 1.158 OPS with 12 home runs over his last 26 games and Seattle starter Emerson Hancock has surrendered six home runs in his last five starts. According to our model, that makes Marte one of the best values among MLB home run betting options on Monday and first-time users can add even more value with the latest DraftKings promo code. With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks and betting strategy and get more MLB player props for Monday.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 32.35 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 62 days. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Monday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Monday, June 9:

Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+550)

Marte's 2025 campaign builds off a 2024 season where he finished third in NL MVP voting after hitting 35 home runs and driving in 95 (both career-highs) while slashing .292/.372/.560. Now clearly established as one of the game's most dynamic infielders offensively, the switch-hitter has been feasting against right-handed pitching of late.

"This line is a bit surprising given how hot Marte's bat has been. Marte is hitting .333 with a 1.182 OPS against RHPs this season and is hitting .391 with a 1.446 in seven June games," SportsLine Data Analyst Jacob Fetner said. "We set Marte's line at +280 to hit a HR."

Marcell Ozuna, Braves (+450)

The 34-year-old hit 79 home runs combined in 2023 and 2024, and being an everyday designated hitter has given his career new life after he struggled playing a hybrid role his first few seasons in Atlanta. This year, he's slashing .257/.397/.430 with 10 home runs and 27 RBI and the model likes him to break out of a mini slump with a strong matchup on Monday in Milwaukee.

"Ozuna has eight of his 10 HRs against RHP, and he is facing a RHP that is prone to giving up HRs. Civale gave up 29 HRs last season and while he has been good over his last few starts in terms of home run prevention, we believe he is due to give up a few today," Fetner said. The model sets Ozuna's line to hit a HR at +350 today but both DraftKings and BetMGM are offering this listed price, and you can add some first-bet insurance with the latest BetMGM promo code.

Brent Rooker, Athletics (+330)

Ozuna's 89 home runs since the start of 2023 rank eighth in the MLB and Rooker is just behind him in ninth with 82 home runs during that span. The 30-year-old hasn't homered in eight games played so far this June but he'll have a lefty vs. righty matchup with winds blowing out to left field on Monday in Angel Stadium. The model sets Rooker's line at +230 but FanDuel is offering the extra hundred points of juice and you can also get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins with this FanDuel promo code.

"Rooker has raked against lefties this season. He has a 1.153 OPS against lefties compared to a .736 OPS against righties. Rooker has a career .927 OPS in games in which the opposing starter is a lefty," Fetner said. "All eight of Yusei Kikuchi's HRs allowed have been to right-handed batters. While Kikuchi's HR allowed rate is down, he leads the league in walks allowed, so he will need to start attacking the zone more."

Where to bet MLB props on Monday

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More MLB picks for Monday

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Matt Severance, who is on a 147-77 roll (+2015) on baseball picks. SportsLine's Bruce Marshall is also 11-7-1 (+335) over his last 19 MLB O/U picks, and he already has locked in picks for Monday.