Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for July 2: Nick Kurtz among best bets for Wednesday HR player props

SportsLine's model is up 24.6 units on HR picks in the last 85 days. Use its MLB picks for MLB sportsbook promotions like MLB profit boosts.

By Ryan Wooden

Jul 2, 2025 at 10:31 am ET • 4 min read

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Less than a year ago, Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, but he's quickly living up to the hype as one of the most promising young hitters in baseball. He sped through the Athletics' farm system and has already established himself as a serious power threat in the big leagues with 12 home runs in his first 48 games. So finding Kurtz listed at +470 like he is in the MLB home run odds from FanDuel isn't a luxury you're likely to have for long, and that's why we're including him in our top MLB HR picks for Wednesday.

The left-handed Kurtz hammers right-handed pitching, and he'll have a lefty vs. righty matchup today against the Rays. You can also get $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins with the latest FanDuel promo code. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 24.60 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 85 days. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Wednesday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, July 2:

Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+470)
Riley Greene, Tigers (+400)
Junior Caminero, Rays (+360)
Parlay these picks for +11152 odds at FanDuel (odds subject to change)

Junior Caminero, Rays (+360)

The 21-year-old launched his 21st home run of the season on Monday and he continues to gradually improve the only thing holding him back from being one of the best power hitters in baseball. He had an average launch angle of -0.3 in 36 big league at-bats in 2023, improved to 6.8 over 177 plate appearances in 2024 and now has an average launch angle of 9.6 in 2025 (338 PAs). He's 100th percentile among MLB hitters in average bat speed (78.0 mph) and 97th percentile in max exit velocity (116.5 mph), so he could be a 50-home candidate if he ever regularly generates more lift.

"The model likes Caminero when he is at home and when he faces RHPs, and today he checks both of those boxes," SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. "Caminero has 16 of his 21 HRs this season against RHPs, and he is hitting .318 with 14 HRs at home this season." DraftKings is offering this price today and you can also get $150 in bonus bets after your first $5 with this DraftKings promo code.

Riley Greene, Tigers (+400)

We had Greene on our MLB HR board on Tuesday, but Detroit's game against Washington was rained out. Greene's 104 strikeouts lead the MLB, but it's hard to find any other holes in his game. He was an MLB all-star for the first time in 2024, but he's been even better this season and the former top-five pick has an ideal matchup on Tuesday against the Nationals coming off an extra day of rest because of Monday's rain out.

"Greene has a .993 OPS with 18 of his 19 HRs against right-handed pitchers, and he has also been better on the road, where he is hitting .318 with 11 HRs in just 39 games," Fetner said. "Trevor Williams has been getting hit hard by left-handed hitters all season. Lefties are hitting .373 with a .992 OPS against Williams over a 16-game sample size this season." BetMGM is offering the best price for Greene to homer, and you can also get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses with this BetMGM promo code.

Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+470)

After hitting four home runs in just 38 at-bats last season as a professional, posting a 1.058 OPS in the Arizona Fall League and then launching eight homers in 87 at-bats in the minors this season, Kurtz was called up on April 23. It took him 17 games to hit his first MLB homer, but it's was a deluge after that. He homered 12 times over his next 29 games, but hasn't homered in his last three outings. That's probably why you're getting this price today and the model sees tremendous value in this play.

"Kurtz is hitting .272 with a .929 OPS vs. RHPs and is facing righty Ryan Pepiot, who didn't make it out of the second inning in his last start. Pepiot has allowed 12 HRs in 11 home starts this season," Fetner said. "We set the line at +380 for Kurtz to homer." FanDuel is offering the best price here.

Where to bet MLB props on Wednesday

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Wednesday:

Sportsbook	Bonus offer	Promo code
Caesars Sportsbook	Bet $1, double your winnings next 10 bets	CBSDYW
BetMGM	Up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses	CBSSPORTS
FanDuel	Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins	Just click here
DraftKings	Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets instantly	Just click here
Fanatics Sportsbook	Bet and get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets	No code required
bet365	Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets win or lose	CBSBET365