Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for July 4: Juan Soto among best bets for Friday HR player props

SportsLine's model is up 24.6 units on HR picks in the last 87 days. Use its MLB picks for MLB sportsbook promotions like MLB profit boosts and DraftKings' King of the Diamond

By Owen OBrien

Jul 4, 2025 at 10:58 am ET • 4 min read

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Juan Soto faces the team he helped lead to a World Series appearance last year for the second series this season, however, this time, he'll have substantially more support behind him. The Mets host the Yankees on Friday for the first game of a three-game Subway Series over Fourth of July Weekend. Soto went 1-for-10 with four walks and no extra-base hits against the Yankees in the Bronx in May. But besides no longer being the villain on Friday, he's entering as one of the hottest hitters in baseball, with his 11 home runs since June 1 tied for the second-most in the sport. With Soto at +400 odds to hit a home run at FanDuel, he's one of the best values amongst our MLB HR picks. Also, check out picks for Cubs vs. Cardinals on Friday.

You can also score $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins with the latest FanDuel promo code, producing even more value for our Friday MLB HR parlay. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 24.60 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 87 days after hitting at least one player in five of the last seven days. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Friday, July 4:

Juan Soto, Mets (+400)
Junior Caminero, Rays (+350)
Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (+450)
Parlay these picks for +8562 odds at FanDuel (odds subject to change)

Juan Soto, Mets (+400)

Along with ranking tied for second in home runs since June 1, Soto is third in slugging percentage (.680) with the best hard-hit rate (51.9%) in the sport. It's only human nature for Soto to want to show off against his former team as the Yankees allowed themselves to be outbid by Steve Cohen and the Mets this offseason, and after winning June NL Player of the Month, Friday could be a good night for Soto with the Yankees scheduled to start Marcus Stroman.

"He is 3-for-10 with a home run in his career against Marcus Stroman, who he knows well from their time as teammates last season," SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. "While Stroman was strong in his first start off the IL, he struggled in his rehab outings, and we expect some regression based on his recent seasons." FanDuel is offereing the best odds at +400, and you can play with a FanDuel promo code here.

Junior Caminero, Rays (+350)

The Tampa Bay third baseman has an extra-base hit in three straight games, including a home run on Tuesday, and he's tied for eighth in baseball with 21 homers. He has the best bat speed in baseball to generate additional power, and his 48% hard-hit rate is better than 78% of the sport. Fetner sees value in this matchup as well.

"He has hit 16 of his 21 home runs against right-handed pitchers, so our model almost always finds value when he's facing a righty," Fetner said. "Chris Paddack gave up two home runs in his last start, and over his last five starts, opponents are hitting .317 with a .925 OPS against him. Caminero is also 2-for-3 in his career against Paddack, which is encouraging." The majority of betting apps have Caminero's home run odds listed at the +280 range, creating strong value in playing him at +350 odds at BetMGM. He's priced at +285 at FanDuel for the parlay. The latest BetMGM promo code gives new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses, making this the place to play this home run prop on Friday.

Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (+450)

Acuna was one of the best hitters in baseball immedietly after returning from a torn ACL in May, and despite a slower stretch with no multi-hit games or home runs over his last nine contests, Acuna is still batting .344 with a 1.047 OPS and nine home runs over 37 games, roughly one home run every four contests. Fetner expects Acuna to capitalize against a familiar opponent as well on Friday against veteran pitcher Charlie Morton.

"He's crushed right-handed pitching this year, hitting .382 with eight of his nine home runs against righties," Fetner said. "Like Soto, Acuña is facing a former teammate in Charlie Morton, who has allowed right-handed batters to hit .294 against him this season. Morton didn't allow any home runs in June, but he gave up 10 in his first 13 starts, so we expect some regression." DraftKings is offereing the best odds at +450 and the latest DraftKings promo code gives new users $150 instantly after making their first $5 bet. Acuna is listed at +350 on FanDuel for the parlay.

Where to bet MLB props on Friday

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Friday:

Sportsbook	Bonus offer	Promo code
Caesars	Bet $1, double your winnings next 10 bets	CBSDYW
BetMGM	Up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses	CBSSPORTS
FanDuel	Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins	Just click here
DraftKings	Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets instantly	Just click here
Fanatics	Bet and get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets	No code required
bet365	Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets win or lose	CBSBET365