Phillies 2021 season preview: Projected lineup, rotation, things to know as club tries to end playoff drought
A lot will need to go right for the Phillies to compete in a crowded NL East
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6 min read
The Philadelphia Phillies have been trying to build a winner around the core of Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola for two-plus years now. After the club went through a rebuild, they still haven't been able to fully turn the corner. The Phillies went 80-82 in 2018, 81-81 in 2019 and 28-32 last season in manager Joe Girardi's first year at the helm. After last year's third-place finish in the NL East, the Phillies have now missed the postseason for nine consecutive seasons. Despite the heavy expectations since going out and spending "stupid" money, the last few seasons have been a disappointment for the Phillies.
The end of the season is particularly difficult for the Phillies. Even when they're close, they can't seem to get it done. With last year's expanded postseason, they missed it by a single game. They needed to go 2-6 in their final eight games to be one of the 16 clubs in the playoffs. They finished at 1-7. Over the last three Septembers, the Phillies have gone 33-53.
The Phillies have Harper on their payroll during his prime and they're competing in a very strong NL East. It's not getting any easier, so there's no time to waste here. But there's room for Phillies fans to be hopeful. Not only is there talent in this Phillies roster, but Dave Dombrowski replaced Matt Klentak this winter in the front office, and Dombrowski knows a thing or two about ending postseason droughts.
Now, let's preview the upcoming season for the Phillies.
Win total projection, odds
- 2021 SportsLine projection: 75-87
- World Series odds (via William Hill Sportsbook): +3500
- 2020 Record: 28-32 (third in NL East, missed postseason)
Projected Lineup
- LF Andrew McCutchen
- 1B Rhys Hoskins
- RF Bryce Harper
- C J.T. Realmuto
- 3B Alec Bohm
- SS Didi Gregorius
- 2B Jean Segura
- CF Scott Kingery
Bench: C Andrew Knapp, INF/OF Brad Miller, OF Matt Joyce, OF Roman Quinn
For the Phillies, in order to be competitive in 2021, they are just going to need everyone to show up. It's really that simple. Left fielder Andrew McCutchen, while no longer in his prime, should be a reliable bat. First baseman Rhys Hoskins will try to find success following his Tommy John surgery this offseason. Bryce Harper will be fine if he's Harper (i.e. carrying the team with his intensity and passion for Philly along with knocking a few homers with his violent swing). With All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto returning to the club, the veteran backstop should remain a key piece of the Phillies lineup. Realmuto suffered a fractured thumb in February but is expected to be ready to go when Opening Day arrives on April 1.
Projected rotation
- RHP Aaron Nola
- RHP Zack Wheeler
- RHP Zach Eflin
- LHP Matt Moore
- Chase Anderson/Vince Velasquez
Bullpen: CL Archie Bradley, Hector Neris, Jose Alvarado, Brandon Kintzler, Tony Watson, Connor Brogdon, JoJo Romero, David Hale
Beyond Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the depth is not great in the Phillies rotation. Right-hander Zach Eflin seems to be primed for a true breakout season after he was one of three pitchers last year to increase his strikeout rate by double-digit points. In fact, our own R.J. Anderson picked him as the Phillies breakout candidate for the 2021 season.
Nola, Wheeler and Eflin are locked into the top three spots. So, it'll be interesting to see how the club sorts out the back end of the rotation. There's right-hander Vince Velasquez, whose posted an ERA of 4.85 or worse in each of the last four seasons as well as veterans Matt Moore and Chase Anderson, whom the club signed to major-league deals. Moore spent last year pitching with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of the Nippon Professional Baseball league, only pitching 13 starts due to a calf injury, but he finished with a 2.65 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 27.8 percent strikeout rate. Top Phillies pitching prospect, 24-year-old Spencer Howard could figure into the rotation, too. The right-handed Howard made just six Double-A starts prior to his big-league debut last year and didn't look sharp at the highest level.
The bullpen should be improved after a historically awful 2020 season, and we'll get to that in a second. Here are three things to know about the 2021 Phillies.
1. Dombrowski's tenure begins
In the early stages of this offseason, it seemed like the Phillies were going to make serious payroll cuts. Owner John Middleton had all but confirmed to cutting payroll and insinuated that they would be out on re-signing top free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto. It turned out Middleton completely changed his tune when he was able to convince decorated executive Dave Dombrowksi to return to working in an MLB front office. Dombrowski came in as president of baseball operations in December, and ultimately, they were able to get a deal done for Realmuto in January.
Hiring Dombrowski and then not paying up for Realmuto would have been an oxymoron. Dombrowski is known to be aggressive when it comes to making win-now signings, so shrinking team payroll would have clashed with his approach. If the Phillies were really hoping to climb out of mediocrity and return to contention, then bringing back Realmuto for the Phillies was the bare minimum this winter. Beyond that, it doesn't seem Dombrowski was able to go all-in on investing in improvements. Realmuto returns along with shortstop Didi Gregorius, and the bullpen upgrades should help, but it'll be interesting to see how the rest of Dombrowski's Phillies tenure unfolds. In his introductory press conference, he said that there wouldn't be a rebuilding effort in Philly, but he instead used the word "retool." Dombrowski can get a successful retooling done; he did so both with the Tigers and Red Sox.
2. Realmuto's return
The Phillies were set for a huge downgrade if they were to let J.T. Realmuto walk in free agency this winter. Instead, they're bringing back one of the best all around catchers in the game; he's great behind the plate, at the plate, managing pitchers and on the basepaths. After the Mets signed catcher James McCann in December, that cleared the way for the Phillies to get a five-year, $115 million contract done. Realmuto's average annual value of $23.1 million is the highest ever for a catcher, a record previously held by Minnesota Twins catcher Joe Mauer.
Realmuto is entering his age-30 season and age-related regression (plus some lingering hip issues) is bound to happen, but his 2020 numbers give no indication that's anytime soon. In 2020, Realmuto finished with a .266/.349/.491 slash line to go along with 11 home runs, six doubles, 32 RBI and four steals in 47 games.
3. Will the offseason bullpen improvements be enough?
We determined that the Phillies bullpen is going to be their biggest X-factor in 2021. In 2020, the Phillies bullpen blew 12 saves, tied for the most in the National League. That was more than the amount of successful saves (11) they did have. Phillies relievers combined for a historically bad ERA of 7.06 over 189 appearances. That counted for the second-worst bullpen ERA in MLB history. In 186 innings, the bullpen gave up 246 hits, 159 runs (146 earned), 87 walks, and 42 home runs. Opponents hit .315 and had a .946 OPS against Phillies relievers. Not great.
And while the Phillies front office did go out and improve the bullpen this winter, they didn't sign any top free agent relievers. Instead, they brought Archie Bradley to the bullpen to go along with a few tweaks with the additions of Jose Alvarado, Brandon Kintzler and Tony Watson. They'll join Hector Neris, Ranger Suarez, Connor Brogdon and Jojo Romero.
At the time of writing this, All-Star reliever Shane Greene is still available, and he would be a worthy addition to the Phillies bullpen. The Phillies are going to need consistent contributions from their new and improved bullpen, and only time will tell if their signings were enough to make better on their crash-and-burn 2020 season.
