The Nationals have challenges ahead this offseason but should contend again in 2017

The Nationals fell short of their goals in 2016, but they'll return a strong core next season

In their relatively brief post-Montreal Expos history, the Washington Nationals have made the playoffs three times, and on each of those occasions they were eliminated in the National League Division Series. That's indeed their fate for 2016, as the Dodgers closed them out in a taut Game 5. Now for Washington, the focus shifts to the offseason and a return to the playoffs in 2017.

To that end, the Nationals and Dusty Baker are certainly working from a solid foundation. The Nats of course won 95 games during the regular season. If you look at run differential, then you'll find that the Nationals played like a 97-win team at the level of runs scored and runs allowed. If you look at the BaseRuns standings available at FanGraphs, which correct for some of the sequencing and clustering effects inherent in run differential, you'll find that the Nats played at that level like a 98-win team. On those grounds, one can argue that they were better than their already excellent record, and that bodes well going forward.

That said, GM Mike Rizzo and his charges will have challenges over the winter. Eligible for free agency are core contributors Wilson Ramos and Mark Melancon. A reunion with Melancon certainly makes sense, but if the numbers don't match up, then the Nats can turn to a free agent market that has some options when it comes to late-inning relievers -- Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, for instance.

Given Ramos' severely injured knee (ACL tear and subsequent surgery) and uncertain status (he may not be fit to catch in 2017), it seems likely the Nats will take a pass on re-upping with him, at least for now. On the catcher front, Matt Wieters presents an intriguing (and regional) option, and Jason Castro is on the market. On the trade front, the Yankees will surely be willing to move Brian McCann. If Pedro Severino shows some skills growth with the bat, then perhaps he'll be ready for a full-time role.

Whatever the case, the Nationals enter the offseason with less than $100 million tied up in guaranteed contracts. They'll have some room in the budget to maneuver.

The other key issue is health. They badly need Stephen Strasburg to get clear of his arm troubles and stabilize the rotation behind Max Scherzer. To that end, it's an encouraging sign that Strasburg was at least in the discussion for being a part of a potential NLCS rotation. He has a lot of recovery time ahead of him, but his injury history and questionable delivery aren't going away. Elsewhere, Anthony Rendon, who has an injury history of his own, gave cause for optimism with his 156 games played and high-value season with the glove.

Obviously, Bryce Harper must be addressed. While he remained productive in 2016, he tumbled significantly from his MVP heights of 2015. Part of that could be simple regression, but it was widely reported that a shoulder injury sapped Harper's production down the stretch. If that's indeed the case, then an offseason of rest and recuperation may get Harper back to being the superstar-caliber performer he was in 2015 and for the first six weeks or so of 2016. The Nats this season proved they can win without Harper at his best, but their task will be much easier with their right fielder in peak condition.

Elsewhere, the Nats will benefit from a full season of Trea Turner regardless of whether he continues manning center or returns to shortstop. Lucas Giolito with a transition year behind him may be ready to be an asset in the rotation for years to come. Daniel Murphy's rebuilt swing will be back, and Tanner Roark, provided his batted-ball indicators and strand rate don't fall back too much, will be a high-value starter. Infield depth and middle relief additions will be in order, but otherwise the Nats look ready to contend once again. That's especially the case in what should be a somewhat diminished NL East in 2017