The NFL Draft is deep in the rearview. OTAs are underway, but we are hurtling towards the dead period in the NFL. There's no better time to embark upon a dangerous but fun mission: looking at the win totals for every NFL team and deciding whether or not each team will win more or less games than Vegas predicts. 

Nothing ages better than NFL predictions in May right? Turns out I'm not terrible at it! The last few seasons have been pretty profitable: 2016 I went 10-5-1 in the AFC and 8-7-1 in the NFC. In 2017 I went 12-2-2 (!) in the AFC and 9-7 in the NFC. Last year in the NFC was not ideal with a 7-8-1 record. The AFC was once again absurd, as I went 12-4 in my over/under picks for that conference. 

For you math majors, my AFC record from MAY the last three years is 34-11-3 in terms of picking over-unders. That's stupid. I'd tell you to bet on every AFC pick I give here, but there's some regression coming at some point probably.

Last year we went team-by-team with these picks, but this year we'll be going back to the divisional format I used in 2016 and 2017. If you hate any picks, love any picks or have better ideas, leave them in the comments or yell at me on Twitter @WillBrinson. You can also get an audio breakdown of all these divisions on the Pick Six Podcast, as we run through each division on our DAILY NFL PODCAST over the next few weeks. Listen to the latest episode in the player below.

All lines are courtesy of the Westgate at the time the article was published. They're subject to change but I'll be grading myself next May on these numbers. The numbers next to the win total indicate the juice. If an over is +150, it means you make $150 for betting $100. If it's -150 you need to bet $150 just to win $100.

Cleveland Browns

Win Total: 9 Over (-140) / Under (+120)

Who is hotter than the Cleveland Browns this offseason? No one, according to Vegas, with the Browns installed as one of the top five teams to win the Super Bowl AND as the favorite to win this division. As of this writing, Cleveland was +140 to take down the AFC North, although Pittsburgh closed the gap some at +160. It's hard not to like the Browns. Baker Mayfield is a superstar in waiting. They traded for Odell Beckham. Nick Chubb exploded once given the starting backfield job. Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, Antonio Callaway and Duke Johnson help fill out a dynamite skill group. Freddie Kitchens is a first-year head coach, but he provides consistency for Mayfield in the former No. 1 pick's second year. The defense is loaded with talent, including DPOY candidate Myles Garrett, last year's other top pick Denzel Ward, tackling machine Christian Kirksey, plus an under-the-radar guy who's mammoth in the middle in Larry Ogunjobi. The additions of Sheldon Richardson and Olivier Vernon only helped to fuel the Browns hype. Here are my issues with this team. One, Kitchens is a new coach. I'm not saying he won't be good, because I think he will be. Having Todd Monken and Steve Wilks as coordinators is a big plus. But there are concerns with the offensive line, where Greg Robinson will be starting at left tackle. The schedule is tough too. I don't think it would be unreasonable for this team to be 3-3 heading into the bye or 6-6 heading into the final four-game stretch of the season with two matchups against the Bengals, one against the Cardinals and a home game against the Ravens. I think this number is right and they end up going about 9-7, with the potential to have a monster year, but I also think it's juiced up because of the public. I lean under just a little here. 

VERDICT: UNDER

Pittsburgh Steelers

Win Total: 9 Over (-125) / Under (+105)

I've already planted my flag in the Steelers bandwagon this year. Pittsburgh reminds me of the Chiefs last season -- people are too caught up in high-profile departures, falling too hard for a trendy sleeper team in the division and missing the underlying stability that the stalwart owns. I'm not saying the Browns can't disrupt the North; they can. But Pittsburgh has a very good roster overall despite the departure of Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. I'm actually making the case Ben Roethlisberger, who will be supremely motivated to have a big season, will be a good value pick for MVP because if he plays well and the Steelers win the division, people will credit him for doing it without the two skill position superstars. In fact, my biggest red flag departure is Mike Munchak leaving for the Broncos. He made that offensive line a dominant unit. I don't think we see a massive drop-off immediately though, because of the talent. No qualms on the offense in general: Ben, James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster will be just fine. Defensively, adding Devin Bush in the draft finally gives them the sideline-to-sideline impact guy they've needed since Ryan Shazier went down. The schedule isn't easy, and I could see a 3-3 start for Pittsburgh, but after the bye they get three-straight home games that looks like a total slingshot into a big season. I see 10+ wins and a division title for this team. Their over would be one of my best bets this year.

VERDICT: OVER

Baltimore Ravens

Win Total: 8.5 Over (+110) / Under (-130)

The Ravens' remarkable run to the playoffs last year has many people expecting even bigger things with Lamar Jackson in 2019. I think Lamar's going to be very good, but I have a few concerns. Primarily, the Ravens' schedule last year was basically like a Powerball outcome: after their bye, they played the Bengals (26th in rush defense DVOA), the Raiders (22nd), the Falcons (30th), the Chiefs (32nd), the Buccaneers (31st), the Chargers (10th) and the Browns (25th). Utilizing a run-heavy approach with their lightning-fast quarterback, they took advantage of drawing an incredible slate of terrible run defenses and snuck into the playoffs. I don't think it's repeatable and, as much as I like the move to install Greg Roman as offensive coordinator with a run-heavy QB, I've got a lot of concerns about an offense that will feature a new playbook (surprise!) and a bunch of rookie wide receivers. Love Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin, but Jackson is going to need to prop up these receivers, not the other way around. Defensively they lost Eric Weddle and Terrell Suggs, but did a nice job picking up Earl Thomas and Shane Ray/Jaylon Ferguson to supplement those problem areas. If young defensive players like Chris Wormley, Matt Judon and Tyus Bowser can take a big leap, the defense doesn't have to skip a beat. The schedule is pretty friendly, and I like the Ravens to get off to a hot start, but I have too many worries about the offense and whether Jackson can sustain a full season of taking some of the unnecessary hits to give them this over. My prediction is 8-8 and just outside the playoffs.

VERDICT: UNDER

Cincinnati Bengals

Win Total: 6 Over (-120) / Under (EV)

Predicting how the Bengals will do this season is one of the more difficult tasks, because the coaching situation is such an unknown. There are people legally able to operate a motor vehicle who have never seen a Bengals team coached by someone other than Marvin Lewis. Zac Taylor isn't one of them, but he's not too far off -- the new Bengals coach wasn't even born when Lewis got his first coaching job at Idaho State in 1981. The Bengals offense should be improved with the coaching change unless Taylor is just a disaster. Andy Dalton should be motivated to keep his gig for the long haul, A.J. Green could be looking for a contract, Tyler Boyd emerged and Tyler Eifert is supposedly healthy (for now). Joe Mixon could emerge as a truly elite running back this year. The offensive line is vastly improved. Defensively, Geno Atkins and Co. might struggle a bit, although there's some young talent on there, including sneaky breakout corner William Jackson. The schedule is BRUTAL to start, with five road games in their first eight weeks before the bye. If the Bengals can hold serve at home and get to that break around 3-5, I think they can pretty easily finish 6-10 or better. They just have to beat the 49ers, Cardinals and Jaguars at home before the bye. That's doable barring major injuries or a complete disaster on the coaching front. I don't think this will be a good Bengals team and it could be a terrible one. But I think it's capable of hitting this number. 

VERDICT: OVER