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The Browns turned a very important page in franchise history last week, winning their first playoff game since 1994, but how in the world can they topple the Chiefs in the divisional round? 

If you think it's impossible, remember, a running-obsessed Titans team upended the No. 1 seeded Ravens just a year ago in the second round of the postseason after Baltimore had a bye to begin the playoffs.

This article outlines the perfect game plan Cleveland needs to spring what would be a massive upset. I've broken it into two fundamental pieces, and I'll start with the Browns defense.

DO NOT blitz PATRICK MAHOMES

As is typically the case with elite quarterbacks, Mahomes absolutely shreds the blitz. For the analytics-based evidence of this, check this tweet from Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz. It's essentially directed at the Browns defensive unit.

Totally agree. And for the straight-forward statistical proof that Mahomes has been a monster against five or more rushers, his yards-per-attempt average in those situations this season is a hefty 9.39. And during the regular season, he tossed 16 touchdowns to no interceptions against the blitz. MVP-caliber stuff.

Even if the Browns were the most efficient blitzing team in the NFL -- and clearly they're not -- it would be advisable to not send extra rushers against Kansas City. 

Here's how frequently defenses blitzed Mahomes in what ultimately were his four worst efforts of the season -- yes, they were still better than most passers -- along with the loss to the Raiders. In parentheses are his figures when not facing the blitz in those contests:

  • Patriots in Week 4 - 3 of 32 drop backs (19 of 27 for 236 yards, 2 TDs)
  • Raiders in Week 5 - 5 of 51 drop backs (18 of 39 for 246 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT)
  • Bills in Week 6 - 1 of 34 (20 of 25 for 205 yards, 2 TDs)
  • Saints in Week 15 - 7 of 54 (23 of 43 for 225 yards, 2 TDs)
  • Falcons in Week 16 - 12 of 44  (17 of 32 for 186 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT)

All that equates to a blitz being sent Mahomes' way on 28 of a possible 215 drop backs -- just 13% of the time. When not blitzed in those five games, Mahomes completed just 58.4% of his throws at a not-very-Mahomesian 6.61 yards per attempt. He did toss nine touchdowns to just two interceptions in those scenarios though. Not blitzing him isn't fool-proof Kryptonite.   

On early downs...throw it!

Ok, so the "don't blitz Mahomes" idea wasn't exactly groundbreaking. But it's a necessity for the Browns. While not nearly as obvious, another necessity for Cleveland is to throw the football on early downs. Not all the time. Just more than normal. 

Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and the Browns offensive line are the strengths of this team. Although the clock doesn't stop after a run, it's first downs, not just a run play, that milk the clock and keep Mahomes off the field. 

Per Sharp Football Stats, in all game situations this season, the Browns have only passed 38% of the time on first down, but they've averaged 7.6 yards on those plays. They were tops in the league in first-down run frequency (62%) and did finish the regular season first in average gain on those run plays (5.3 yards per). But 7.6 yards is better than 5.3 yards the last time I checked. 

In neutral situations -- score margin between -8 and +8 points -- Cleveland's effectiveness based on their play call has had a slightly bigger disparity. They only called a pass 37% of the time, but those plays netted 8.1 yards per play compared to 5.7 yards per play on runs that were called the other 63%. 

Passing on first down has been pushed by the analytics crowd for a few years now, and although the Browns don't want to completely abandon their identity and play away from their strengths, even just a tick more passing frequency early will, over time, get them into more advantageous second- and -third-and-short situations in which they'll have the entire playbook at their disposal. Plus, those situations lead to more first downs. 

Kansas City is currently 31st in Football Outsiders run defense DVOA -- music to the ears of Browns fans -- but that defense will be selling out to halt Cleveland's ground game. Of course, actually stopping it is easier said than done given the Browns personnel. However, for Stefanski's club, I worry that even if a run-heavy game plan initially works and gets Cleveland out to a lead that will only perpetuate the ground-game philosophy as the contest wears on, it'll lead to the Chiefs getting stops in the second half due to predictable Browns play-calling and provide the Chiefs the offensive possessions needed to mount a comeback.

The last thing Cleveland wants is Baker Mayfield in third-and-long situations on a regular basis. In the regular season, his passer rating on third-and-5 or longer is 69.0, and he converted 32 first downs through the air on 86 attempts. Yikes. The Browns' mindset on offense needs to be focused on getting first downs as quickly as possible, not hoping to move the chains on third down.

Remember, first downs are more vital to Cleveland than just calling a run play that altogether eats 40-45 seconds off the clock. The Browns were the fourth run-heaviest team in football this season (48% of all plays) but mustered 195 passing first downs to 133 first downs via the run.

Also too, the Chiefs allowed 55 explosive pass plays -- 20 or more yards -- during the regular season, the 11th-highest rate in football. During the regular season, teams only threw it on first down 48% of the time against Kansas City, but the defense allowed an average of 7.0 yards on those plays as opposed to 4.2 on first-down run plays. 

I know it will pain many Browns fans to read this, but Cleveland has to pass it early against the Chiefs.

(All advanced stats courtesy of TruMedia unless otherwise noted*)