Chargers at Chiefs predictions: Point spread, total, player props, pick, trends for 'Thursday Night Football'

Get ready for the Week 2 opener with our gambling breakdown of Chargers-Chiefs

It's a new era for "Thursday Night Football" as the opening game of the week will now be aired on Amazon's Prime Video. As they step into the full-time streaming platform, they'll do so with one of the better quarterback matchups that we'll see all season with Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes set to go toe to toe at Arrowhead Stadium. 

Here, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we'll also take a look at several player props and hand in our picks for how we see this prime-time matchup unfolding. 

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook. 

How to watch

Date: Thursday, Sept. 15 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
Stream: Amazon Prime Video
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -4, O/U 54

Line movement

When this line initially opened back in May in lockstep with the schedule release, the Chiefs were a field goal favorite. That held throughout the summer but did see an uptick following Week 1. Immediately after the events of the opening weekend, Kansas City's edge began to creep up to -3.5 and now stands at -4 on the eve of this head-to-head. 

The pick: Chiefs -4. Mahomes reminded the NFL that he is still that dude in Week 1 when he threw for five touchdowns in a dominating win over the Cardinals. While Los Angeles' defense is more formidable than Arizona's, I still expect Mahomes to have his foot on the gas. Herbert will be without arguably his main weapon in wideout Keenan Allen and cornerback J.C. Jackson is questionable as he tries to make his season debut following an ankle procedure this summer. Arrowhead Stadium also can't be overlooked, being one of the better home-field advantages in the league.

Key trend: Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite. 

Over/Under total

Given the offensive firepower that both of these teams have, it's no surprise to see the total north of 50. It opened at 52.5 back in the spring and has jockeyed around 54 and 54.5 all this week leading into the matchup. As of the publication of this article, it stands at 54. 

The pick: Over 54. Even with Allen sidelined, the Chargers are still an explosive offense so long as Herbert is under center. In his career at Arrowhead Stadium (two games), Herbert has thrown seven touchdowns with zero interceptions. Meanwhile, the Chiefs just showed that they'll have no problem putting up points without Tyreek Hill and are fresh off dropping 44 in Arizona. In Kansas City's last nine games, the Over is 8-1. For the Chargers, the Over is 6-1 in their last seven games. 

Key trend: Over is 5-1 in Chiefs' last six Thursday games. 

Patrick Mahomes props

• Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +106, Under -145)
• Passing yards: 296.5 (Over +100, Under -137)
• Rushing yards: 17.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
• Passing attempts: 40.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
• Longest pass completion: 38.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
• Completions: 27.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -111, Under -123)

The Over on Mahomes' passing touchdown total is a good value at +106. Not only did he just throw for five touchdowns in the opener, but the Chiefs quarterback has historically played extremely well out of the gate. In his career in September, Mahomes has thrown 46 passing touchdowns with just three interceptions. The Chargers may be seeing the debut of free agent corner Jackson in this game, but Mahomes should still be able to find the end zone three times, just as he did in each game he faced the Chargers in 2021. 

Justin Herbert props

• Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -224, Under +159)
• Passing yards: 283.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
• Rushing yards: 14.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
• Passing attempts: 38.5 (Over -109, Under -125)
• Longest pass completion: 37.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
• Completions: 25.5 (Over -103, Under -133)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -109, Under -125)

Herbert may not have Allen as his go-to target in this game, but the Chargers still have plenty of weapons in the passing game, including wideout Mike Williams and running back Austin Ekeler. Historically, Herbert has played well at Arrowhead, throwing for seven touchdowns in his two starts on the road. If he plays to that average, he'll go over his passing touchdown total, but there isn't much value there at -224. In his two starts at Kansas City, Herbert averaged 24 completions per game (which would be Under his current total) and 291.5 passing yards (Over his current total).

Player props to consider

Austin Ekeler total receptions: Over 4.5 (-139). With Allen out, Herbert is going to lean heavily on other options and there is now a sizable target share up for grabs. Ekeler seems like a solid candidate to adopt some of those looks from Herbert and the back has played well for him in this setting. In Herbert's two career games at Arrowhead, Ekeler averaged six receptions per game. He's also facing a Chiefs defense that just allowed Arizona backs to combine for eight catches on 10 targets in Week 1. 

Travis Kelce longest reception: Over 22.5 (-104). Kelce and Mahomes connected on passes for a gain of 35 and 26 yards in Week 1 and had a targeted air yards average of 10.5, according to Next Gen Stats. Simply put, there's going to be at least a couple of times Mahomes looks to Kelce for a chunk play and he's now facing a Chargers secondary that just allowed Raider tight end Darren Waller to average 19.8 yards per catch in the opener. This 22.5 number seems very doable for Kelce, who went over this longest reception total in seven of his 16 games played in 2021.