NFL line movement for Week 15: Patriots vs. Bills, Jets vs. Jaguars among top games with biggest shifts
The AFC East showdown between Buffalo and New England has bettors on the fence, and we're seeing some other NFL line movement for Week 15

Time is running out for teams to make their moves, and NFL Week 15 will start to bring some clarity to a convoluted playoff picture. The marquee matchup is Bills vs. Patriots, but Chargers vs. Chiefs and Packers vs. Broncos should get plenty of attention. The Patriots (11-2) are looking to secure the AFC East title for the first time since they won 11 straight with Tom Brady at the helm from 2009-19. The Bills (9-4) have won every season since, and they are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds at DraftKings after New England opened as a 1.5-point favorite.
Bye weeks are over, so there is a full slate in Week 15, and the Chiefs (6-7) are in do-or-die mode (for real this time) against their AFC West rivals. Kansas City is in true danger of missing the postseason after reaching five of the past six Super Bowls, winning three. The Chargers (9-4) are two games behind the division-leading Broncos (11-2). Denver hosts the 9-3-1 Packers, who have a tentative hold on the NFC North lead.
Lines are sharp this time of year, as the books have tons of data to parse, but there has been some notable NFL line movement in Week 15. Here, we will break down the games that have seen the biggest shifts since lines first opened, with all odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bills vs. Patriots (1 p.m. ET)
- Open: Patriots -1.5, O/U 47.5
- Now: Bills -1.5, O/U 49.5
The Patriots had their bye last week, while Josh Allen and the Bills were rallying to beat the Bengals 39-34. New England won the first meeting this season 23-20 when Drake Maye threw for 273 yards and Buffalo had three turnovers. Allen has thrived under pressure, going 27-9-1 against the spread in his career against defenses that allow fewer than 20 points per game. New England allows 18.5. The Pats are 9-4 ATS this season, while Buffalo is 6-7.
Jets vs. Jaguars (1 p.m. ET)
- Open: Jaguars -8.5, O/U 42.5
Now: Jaguars -13.5, O/U 41.5
The Jaguars (9-4) lead the AFC South after knocking off the Colts last week, and the Jets' uncertainty at quarterback has shifted this line considerably. The Jets are 3-10, so it was already expected to be ugly, but both Justin Fields (knee) and Tyrod Taylor (groin) have health issues. Brady Cook, who completed 14 of 30 passes and threw two interceptions last week, could be the only option for New York. Five of New York's losses have been by 13 or more points, including the past three, while the Jags have outscored their past two opponents 61-22.
Cardinals vs. Texans (1 p.m. ET)
- Open: Texans -7, O/U 42.5
- Now: Texans -9.5, O/U 42.5
Houston opened a lot of eyes with their dominant defensive performance against the desperate Chiefs last week. The Texans forced three turnovers and held Patrick Mahomes to 14-of-33 passing in the 20-10 victory. The defense allows 266 yards and 16 points per game, both tops in the league. The Cardinals are 3-10 after winning their first two games thanks to a defense that allows almost 27 points per game and an offense that can't run the ball.
Chargers vs. Chiefs (1 p.m. ET)
- Open: Chiefs -4.5, O/U 44.5
- Now: Chiefs -5.5, O/U 41.5
The Chiefs are getting the benefit of the doubt, and Justin Herbert's surgically repaired hand looks like it could force Los Angeles to be a bit more conservative. The Chargers (9-4) looked shaky on offense but still beat the Eagles in OT last week. Kansas City (6-7) needs this one badly, and its defense allows fewer points (19.4 per game) than the Chargers (20.8). With major issues on both offensive lines, this line has dropped, and the home-field advantage favors the Chiefs. The Chargers are 1-4 against the spread on the road this season.
Colts vs. Seahawks (4:25 p.m. ET)
- Open: Seahawks -9.5, O/U 43.5
- Now: Seahawks -14, O/U 42.5
The Indianapolis quarterback situation has been unclear since Daniel Jones tore an Achilles in Week 14's 36-19 loss to the Jaguars. Riley Leonard took over for the Colts (8-5) but now has a knee injury, so Philip Rivers was brought in, though the team is optimistic Leonard will be ready. Seattle (10-3) has no such issue, with Sam Darnold and NFL receiving leader Jaxon Smith-Njigba leading the second-highest scoring offense in the league (29.8 ppg). The defense allows just 17.4, the second-fewest mark in the NFL.















