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The 2026 NFL Playoffs begin with Super Wild Card Weekend on Saturday, Jan 10 as the Los Angeles Rams head to Charlotte to face the Carolina Panthers. The bonanza concludes on Monday evening with the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Houston Texans. There are six games to choose from when it comes to building out money line parlays for the Wild Card round and SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman has locked in his picks for his three-team play.

NFL three-team money line parlay strategy

NFL playoff parlay betting is a whole different ball game compared to the regular season. The markets are sharper, the competition is tougher (well, maybe not in Carolina's case) and teams can react unpredictably when the pressure's on. Plus, the same-game parlays are often highly correlated. For example, if you like the Rams to roll over Carolina, it makes sense to look at the Over props for Rams offensive players—they'll likely put up big numbers if your prediction is right.

In Week 18, NFL betting favorites went 10-6. However, take these results with a grain of salt, as the final week featured numerous teams either resting starters or "tanking" for a better draft pick. Over the entire 2025-26 NFL campaign, favorites won 181 out of 272 games (66.5%), which is well below last season's 71.8% mark. As we reach the NFL postseason, I'm putting together a three-team money line parlay featuring my most confident combination of favorites and underdogs.

Week 18 NFL money line favorites parlay

Philadelphia Eagles over San Francisco 49ers

I grabbed this on Sunday night at lower odds, but I think it's still a great bet at this number. Jalen Hurts has statistically played his best football in south Philadelphia. Entering this postseason, he holds an incredible record (19-1 SU) at home against teams with winning records. While the Eagles' offense has been the subject of media scrutiny, their defense under Vic Fangio has quietly become the team's backbone entering January. The Eagles' defensive front (anchored by Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis) is built specifically to disrupt Kyle Shanahan's zone-run scheme. If they can force the 49ers into 3rd-and-longs, they neutralize San Francisco's biggest strength—play-action.

The Eagles stand out as the clear favorite here, thanks to their elite pass defense (75.4 opponent passer rating, second in the NFL) and their red zone dominance (70.4% TD rate, best in the league), plus the boost of home field advantage (+2.1 EPA points). Meanwhile, San Francisco's injuries—especially to Trent Williams (who's truly questionable), Nick Bosa, and Fred Warner—push things even more in Philly's favor, despite the 49ers' impressive 49.7% third-down conversion rate and their historic special teams EPA (+7.1 per game). Even if Williams manages to suit up, will he be close to 100%? Hamstring injuries are tricky and there's always the risk of a mid-game setback.

Don't forget about Ricky Pearsall, either. He's a legit downfield threat, but he's been dealing with a knee injury. I expect he'll play, but how effective will he really be? Those are big questions hanging over the 49ers' offense. This feels like the game where all those injuries finally catch up with the 49ers—a team that impressively managed 12 wins despite being banged up most of the season. The Eagles secured the NFC East and had the luxury of managing reps down the stretch. Key offensive pieces like A.J. Brown and Saquon Barkley are healthy and ready for a heavy workload.

Here's a stat that really stands out: San Francisco ranks dead last in quarterback sacks (just 1.2 per game) and sits at a -0.4 sack differential. Meanwhile, the Eagles generate 2.5 sacks per game and boast a +0.4 sack differential. That disparity could be a game-changer in a matchup like this. Hurts and the Eagles' offense should have ample time to pick apart a 49ers pass defense that ranks 27th in opponent passer rating (100.5). The Eagles show no signs of slowing down and look poised for another Super Bowl run.

Los Angeles Chargers over New England Patriots

New England benefited from one of the NFL's softest schedules and posted a 3–2 record against playoff teams. Since Week 12, the Patriots' run defense has dropped to 30th in EPA per play. Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman are masters at crafting a productive run game, even with injuries up front. Meanwhile, the Chargers lead the league in opponent passer rating while New England sits at 21st. Since 2002, first-time playoff QBs (Drake Maye) have won only 35.4% of their games. Justin Herbert's postseason experience and elite processing give the Chargers a clear advantage. The Ravens recently played the Patriots—look for Harbaugh to pick up valuable tips from his brother. Most of the bets—and the money—are coming in on the home team. The average fan sees the Patriots' win-loss record and figures they're a lock. But it's never that simple.

The Patriots' defense inside the red zone has been a disaster all year. They're 30th in the NFL—basically, if you get inside their 20, you're almost guaranteed to score a touchdown. That's the last thing you want heading into the postseason. The Chargers are on the other end of the spectrum: fourth in the league in red-zone defense, and they get even stingier when the field shrinks. These are the little things that can make or break a playoff run. And with the Patriots having played the league's softest schedule, you have to wonder if they're really prepared for playoff-caliber competition.

Jesse Minter has the Chargers' defense dialed in. His guys play smart, stay disciplined and simply don't give up easy yards. Minter's quarters-based zone isn't flashy, but it's effective. Quarterbacks who like to throw deep usually end up frustrated. Maye is in for a real challenge in his first playoff start as this Chargers defense doesn't make anything easy. If Minter ends up as a head coach next season, it won't be a surprise. He's been quietly excellent all season and people around the league are starting to notice. I love the Chargers on the spread and money line.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Houston Texans

Although the Texans enter this matchup with a superior 12-5 record and a high-flying defense, the Steelers are primed to pull off the upset on Monday night. While the oddsmakers might favor C.J. Stroud and the Texans, the specific conditions of this game—venue, quarterback experience, and defensive style—tilt the advantage toward the black and gold.

With all the retirement rumors swirling, Aaron Rodgers is playing like a guy with nothing left to prove—loose, confident, and completely in the moment. Playoff games come down to the details: nailing third downs, making smart choices in the red zone, and not blinking when the pressure's on. That's where Rodgers' experience makes a difference. He's been around forever and there's nothing a defense can throw at him that he hasn't already seen.

On the other side, Stroud is a rising star, but this is a tough spot. He's about to get a heavy dose of Teryl Austin's defense, which specializes in confusing young quarterbacks with all sorts of looks and pressure. Add in the confidence Pittsburgh brings after beating the Ravens—and the fact the Steelers don't have to deal with Baltimore's relentless run game—and they are in a great position to make things messy for Houston.

The Texans are built for speed and thrive in the controlled environment of NRG Stadium. In Pittsburgh, the forecast likely calls for freezing temperatures and potential precipitation. This slows down the Texans' fast-track receivers and neutralizes their athletic edge. The "Renegade" effect is real. In a primetime night game, the Acrisure home crowd disrupts communication, which is vital for the Texans' timing-based offense.

Pittsburgh's singular statistical advantage is devastating efficiency in the red zone: 58.8% touchdown conversion (11th) compared to Houston's abysmal 46.3% (30th). This 12.5% gap means when Pittsburgh gets scoring opportunities inside the 20-yard line, it finishes drives far more effectively than Houston. In a low-scoring playoff game, this could be the difference that decides who moves on.

The Texans might have more speed and flash, but the Steelers bring the grit. In a cold weather playoff battle, give me the team that knows how to win ugly. I think this one comes down to grit and experience. Rodgers makes a clutch throw in crunch time, T.J. Watt forces a game-changing strip-sack in the fourth and the Steelers gut out a 20-17 win over Houston.