NFL playoff bracket, schedule, odds, picks for Wild Card Weekend: Bears win rubber match vs. Packers

Tyler Sullivan gives his picks for the opening round of the NFL playoffs

The race to Santa Clara for Super Bowl LX is on! The regular season is in our rearview mirror, and just 14 teams are left standing as their hopes of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy continue to burn. 

What I find absolutely fascinating about this postseason is that there really is no juggernaut, right? Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are not looming as a giant trump card, and even the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles don't feel as big a threat as they were during their title run a year ago. That leaves the league wide open for a team to come in and snatch the throne, which should create a fantastic postseason for us to watch unfold and bet on. 

Speaking of betting, I'm still waiting on a few belated Christmas/Thank You cards in the mail from you guys after I gave you a Seahawks-Broncos to make the playoffs parlay at +362 before Week 1. Of course, it would've been more impressive had I told you to bet each of them to finish as the No. 1 seeds, but we'll take what we can get. 

If you read my playoff prediction piece from earlier in the week, you know how I think this opening round is going to unfold. For those who missed it, I'll give you my Super Bowl pick here and now: Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville Jaguars. 

Let's get to the Wild Card Weekend picks. 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

2025 record

Playoffs
ATS: 0-0
ML: 0-0

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 48-42-0
ATS: 118-151-3
ML: 167-104-1

Prisco's NFL Wild Card Weekend picks: Jaguars knock out Bills in shootout, Steelers upset Texans

Pete Prisco

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

Laying double-digit points in the playoffs, particularly on the road, is a scary proposition. That said, I think the Carolina Panthers are a playoff team in name only. Sure, they were able to beat these Rams in their building just a few weeks ago, but I think that had more to do with Matthew Stafford melting down (three turnovers in the loss) than anything specific Carolina was rolling out. In fact, I believe that defeat is going to zero in L.A.'s focus for this game, which removes the thought of them possibly overlooking the Panthers and getting caught sleeping. 

The Rams finished the regular season with a +172 point differential, which was the second-best in the league. Meanwhile, the Panthers had a -69 point differential, which is the third-worst by a division winner since 1970. That's why we're seeing such a lopsided spread, and I think Stafford is going to come out with his hair on fire to try and redeem himself from that Week 13 clunker. Rams leave no doubt. 

Projected score: Rams 30, Panthers 17
The pick: Rams -10.5

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Prime Video)

After they split the regular-season series and those two contests coming down to the wire, it felt like we were destined to have a rubber match between these NFC North rivals. Given the storied history of these franchises, I was shocked to learn that this will only be the third time they've squared off in the postseason, and, of course, the all-time series is 1-1. 

In this latest chapter, I have Chicago defending Soldier Field and advancing to the divisional round. Yes, I have questions about their defense, but being at home should help smooth things out for them. The same cannot be said for Green Bay, as I think this is a tough draw in Round 1. Specifically, the fact that the Packers couldn't secure the NFC North title and are now forced to go on the road could prove to be the major X factor. This season, the Packers have surrendered 24.1 points per game on the road compared to the 17.9 points per game they've given up at Lambeau Field. Over their four-game losing streak beginning in Week 15 (when they lost Micah Parsons to a torn ACL), the Packers have registered a league-low four sacks. If that continues and Caleb Williams works in a clean pocket, that'll send Matt LaFleur (3-5 in his playoff coaching career) and the Packers packing. 

Projected score: Bears 27, Packers 20
The pick: Bears -1

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)

This might be the matchup I'm most looking forward to over Wild Card Weekend. On one side, you have a Jaguars team that is playing as well as any club in the NFL. On the other hand, you have Josh Allen, who is looking at potentially his best chance at getting to the Super Bowl with Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson all out of the playoffs. However, the big problem for Buffalo is that they were unable to win the AFC East, which has them going on the road this postseason as a wild card entry. 

That's a massive development when you factor in Sean McDermott and Allen's road playoff history. Allen is 0-4 on the road in his playoff career, while McDermott is 0-5. As an organization, the Bills' last road playoff win came back in the 1992 AFC Championship in Miami against the Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Jags are stout at EverBank Stadium, finishing the regular season with a 7-1 straight-up home record. 

As for the nitty-gritty of this game, I think the Jaguars are well-equipped to attack Buffalo's biggest weakness. The Bills gave up 5.1 yards per carry this season, which was the third-worst mark in the entire NFL. Jacksonville has shown an eagerness to run the football when given the opportunity, so this could be a strong day on the ground for Travis Etienne. Buffalo becomes a surprising one-and-done. 

Projected score: Jaguars 30, Bills 24
The pick: Jaguars +1.5

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

I'll be honest, I don't give either of these teams a massively high ceiling at the moment. If each were firing on all cylinders, that'd be a different story, and I'd tell you that either could win the Super Bowl. However, the Niners are banged up, and I still have my questions about Philadelphia's offense truly finding its rhythm. One thing that I do trust is the Eagles defense making life difficult for Brock Purdy. Even if the Niners QB has his left tackle Trent Williams (hamstring) and top wideout Ricky Pearsall (knee) back for this game, neither will be 100%. As we saw in the Week 18 matchup against Seattle, San Francisco's offense may be a little bit of a house of cards due to injury. 

One other thing we saw in that regular-season finale against the Seahawks was that you can run on this Niners defense. Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet combined for 171 yards and a touchdown on a 5.1 yards-per-carry average. If that trend continues, Saquon Barkley could prove to be the MVP of this game and keep Philly's hopes of repeating alive for a little while longer. 

Projected score: Eagles 24, 49ers 20
The pick: Eagles -3.5

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Sunday, 8 p.m. ET (NBC)

This was admittedly the hardest game of the weekend for me to pin down. On the one hand, the Patriots are unproven and, while Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel put together seasons worthy of MVP and COY honors, you have to point out how easy their schedule was. New England's strength of schedule was the easiest in the NFL since 1999. The last time a team saw as easy a schedule, Tom Brady was still at Michigan! While you can't fault the Patriots for playing and defeating the teams the NFL put in front of them, it does bring up the question of what happens when the level of competition increases, like it will in the postseason. That's where the Pats could run into a type of resistance they haven't felt quite yet. 

While I think that'll come in later rounds, I don't believe that'll be the case on Sunday night. Why? I have many more questions surrounding Justin Herbert's ability to ascend in the playoffs. The Chargers QB is 0-2 in his playoff career, and they've been some pretty damming defeats. The first saw Herbert and the Chargers blowing a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars during the 2022 playoffs. The second came last year when he threw four interceptions in a loss to Houston after tossing just three picks over the entire regular season. Until Herbert shows me something different, I'll fade him. 

Projected score: Patriots 24, Chargers 20
The pick: Patriots -3.5

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, ABC | Fubo, try for free)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are like a cockroach during a nuclear explosion. Somehow, they survive. Even when it looked like they were about to be bounced from the playoffs in the final seconds, Baltimore's Tyler Loop missed the game-winning 44-yard field goal, and the AFC North crown fell onto their heads. But that's sort of what Pittsburgh does, right? The Steelers remarkably find their way into the playoffs, only to be one-and-done when they get there. I think we're about to see that same formula play out before our eyes on Monday night. 

While the Steelers will get DK Metcalf back after his two-game suspension, Houston's defense may be too big a hurdle to overcome for Aaron Rodgers. The Texans defense ranked No. 1 in the NFL in total yards per game (277.2), No. 2 in points per game allowed (17.4), and No. 3 in takeaways (29). The unit was also second in the league in pressure rate. That has a recipe for the Steelers offense to be under siege throughout the contest. Meanwhile, did you see how open Baltimore's receivers were getting down the field in Week 18? Surely, C.J. Stroud can find Nico Collins and his other pass catchers on a couple of deep shots to build up a cushion and pull off the upset. 

Projected score: Texans 28, Steelers 20
The pick: Texans -3.5