The Cleveland Browns no longer represent the worst the AFC North has to offer. By wins and losses, the Browns still occupy the basement of the division, but in terms of future outlook, the Browns are no longer last. And Week 12 is going to be the moment the 3-6-1 Browns unofficially overtake the 5-5 Bengals. On Sunday, when the two teams meet in Cincinnati, we're likely to see the passing of the torch between a team on the rise and a team ready to sink into the abyss.

With the first of my weekly best bets, I'm taking the Browns +3 vs. the Bengals. Unofficially, I'm taking the Browns to win the game to cement their status as the third-best team in the division (baby steps).

I'm just not convinced the Bengals are any good. Even when they jumped out to a 4-1 start, their wins were marred by flukes that just happened to go their way. The Colts were on the verge of beating them in Week 1 with a game-winning drive when an 83-yard fumble return in the final 30 seconds turned a likely Bengals loss into an 11-point Bengals win. They needed a touchdown in the final 10 seconds, which came a minute or so after Andy Dalton tried to throw a game-losing pick that was dropped, to beat the Falcons by one point back in Week 4. In Week 5, they trailed the Dolphins by 17 points in the second half, which is when Ryan Tannehill handed the Bengals 14 free points via two turnovers. 

Lately, they've been getting smoked, as that 4-1 start has morphed into a 5-5 record. Over their past five games, they've been outscored by 79 points. They needed a walk-off field goal to avoid getting FitzMagic'd in Week 8. In that span, they've lost Carl Lawson to a torn ACL, played without an injured A.J. Green, fired their defensive coordinator, watched Marvin Lewis fail to figure out how the headset works to call defensive plays, and hired Hue Jackson as Special Assistant to the Regional Manager Head Coach -- it sounds like the kind of shenanigans we'd normally associate with the Browns. 

Meanwhile, since firing Jackson, the Browns have gone from competitive but incompetent to competitive and competent. They're coming off a 12-point win over the Falcons before their Week 11 bye. That was their first double-digit win since Dec. 13, 2015. Their defense has been fantastic since Week 1, but what's especially encouraging is how much the offense has improved since they fired Jackson and Todd Haley. Baker Mayfield's been sacked twice in two games under new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens. He was sacked 20 times in his first six games under Jackson and Haley.

These are two teams heading in opposite directions. At the end of the season, both coaching jobs will likely be vacant (assuming the Bengals miss the playoffs). If both jobs open up, the Browns job should be considered the more attractive opening. They've got a young franchise quarterback and the better defense spearheaded by a young generational pass-rushing talent in Myles Garrett and an already impactful corner in rookie Denzel Ward. The Bengals, meanwhile, are still grinding out games with Andy Dalton. At some point in the near future, they'll need to reset. The Browns already underwent their reset.

On Sunday, I think the game will reflect the fact that the two teams are heading in opposite directions. 

Last week: 3-2
This year: 33-21-1

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All odds via SportsLine 

Browns +3 at Bengals 

Game info: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS, stream on CBS All Access, stream on fuboTV (try for free)

One final note: The Browns are actually 6-4 against the spread this season, including 5-3 as underdogs. 

Oh, and then there's this:

Redskins +7 at Cowboys

Game info: Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox, stream on fuboTV (try for free)

Yes, the Redskins are starting Colt McCoy. Yes, they have to travel to Dallas to take on a Cowboys team that's won two games in a row. But I'm still expecting this game to come down to a field goal. I just don't think either team is good enough to win by a touchdown. 

McCoy isn't a starting-caliber quarterback, but it's not like Alex Smith was playing particularly well before losing his season to a gruesome leg injury. The Cowboys have played better since acquiring Amari Cooper, but it's not like they're lighting up their opponents. They're scoring only 21 points per game with Cooper compared to 20 points per game without him. The Redskins' defense -- 14th in DVOA -- is decent enough to keep the Cowboys' passing attack in check and the Cowboys' offense is predicable enough that we can expect a heavy dose of the ground game.

I'm expecting the Cowboys to win a low-scoring game. They're at home. Their starting quarterback is healthy. Zeke is rolling. But I don't think they're good enough to win by more than a touchdown.

Falcons +13 at Saints

Game info: Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC, stream on fuboTV (try for free)

I don't feel great about this one because the Saints are steamrolling their way through the league with a plus-139 point differential, but I'm putting my faith in the Falcons' offense to keep this game relatively close. Even after two straight clunkers, the Falcons rank seventh in offensive DVOA and ninth in points per game. Matt Ryan, despite playing for a 4-6 team, has played brilliantly with 3,306 yards, 22 touchdowns, and four interceptions. The last time these two teams met, the Falcons took the Saints to overtime. The Saints have looked better since Week 3, but 13 points is too many for me to back them.

I'm worried about going against the Saints, but I'll take the Falcons to lose by 10 or so points. They're not great, but they're good enough for some garbage time scores.

Patriots -9.5 at Jets

Game info: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS, stream on CBS All Access, stream on fuboTV (try for free)

I will, however, take the Patriots to cover a big spread on the road against the Jets. The Patriots are coming off a loss and their bye. According to Will Brinson (check out his Week 12 picks here), the Patriots are 39-14 against the spread after a loss since 2003 and 7-1 against the spread as a field goal or more road favorite after a bye since Bill Belichick became their coach. In a matchup of Tom Brady vs. Josh McCown/Sam Darnold, give me the Patriots to roll.

Vikings -3 vs. Packers

Game info: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC, Stream on fuboTV (try for free)

Don't overreact to the Vikings' dreadful outing in primetime against a very good Bears team in Chicago. There's no shame in getting out-played by that Bears defense. It doesn't meant the Vikings can't rebound against a Packers team that is both struggling and entering the game with some key injuries. 

The Packers only wins this season have come against the Dolphins (with Brock Osweiler), the 49ers (with C.J. Beathard), the Bills, and the Bears back in Week 1 (they needed a miracle comeback). They've lost three of their past four games. They haven't played well since their narrow loss to the Rams back in Week 8. The Packers are also dealing with injuries to players like Bashaud Breeland, Mike Daniels, Jimmy Graham, Kevin King, and Nick Perry, all of whom didn't practice Wednesday.

The Vikings' defense remains very good (fifth in DVOA), so they should be able to slow down the Packers. Despite the ugly loss on Sunday night, we saw the Vikings stymie the Bears' offense, which came into the game 10th by DVOA. And the Vikings' offense should be able to rebound against a defense that isn't nearly as good as the Bears'.

Both teams are desperate for a win. So the Packers won't catch the Vikings sleeping. I'll take the slightly better team at home.