NFL Week 15 picks: Our experts face off on Falcons vs. Buccaneers on 'TNF', Packers at Broncos and more
CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin predict this weekend's top games
The NFL playoff race is heating up! The Pittsburgh Steelers stole first place in the AFC North from the Baltimore Ravens, the Chicago Bears fell from the No. 1 seed in the NFC to the No. 7 seed following their loss to the Green Bay Packers, and the Buffalo Bills registered an impressive fourth-quarter comeback against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. That loss secured Burrow's first losing season since his rookie year back in 2020.
This week in the NFL, we get a rematch of Bills vs. New England Patriots, Jordan Love travels to take on one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Denver Broncos, while the "Matthew Stafford Bowl" takes place in Los Angeles. The Kansas City Chiefs also have a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. Following their loss to the Houston Texans, SportsLine says Kansas City has just a 6% chance to make the playoffs.
Which teams should you pick in Week 15, and which should you fade? CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin are here to break down the biggest games of the weekend. For clarity, lines for these selections were taken on Dec. 10 over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) (TNF)
Dajani (Buccaneers -4.5): The Falcons looked like a disaster last Sunday. They are 1-7 in their last eight games, and are allowing almost 27 points per contest over that span. I do find it worrisome that the Buccaneers have dropped four out of their past five since starting 6-2, but with this game being at home, I have to lean towards the team still in playoff contention. Plus, Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan could be on the field together for the first time all year. The Bucs haven't covered the spread in five straight games, but this is a matchup where they can snap the streak … Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 20
Dubin (Buccaneers -4.5): Tampa isn't exactly lighting the world on fire of late, but the Falcons seem to be dead in the water. Tampa should be able to move the ball on Thursday night, especially if Mike Evans and/or Jalen McMillan can make their returns from injury. The Falcons, meanwhile, seemingly cannot move the ball with any degree of consistency with Kirk Cousins under center. The Bucs have a good run defense and are weaker against the pass, which plays against what the Falcons would like to do given the current state of their roster. … Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Falcons 13
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Dajani (Bengals +2.5): The Ravens have lost two straight, and given the division lead back to Pittsburgh. The Bengals would have defeated the Bills last week if it were not for that mind-blowing fourth-quarter collapse, but this is Joe Burrow's first game back playing in front of his home fans, and Lamar Jackson has not looked like himself recently. For those reasons, give me the Bengals in a wildly entertaining affair … Prediction: Bengals 35, Ravens 33
Dubin (Ravens -2.5): I'm going down with the ship here. I have already gone down with the ship picking the Chiefs every week, so I might as well do it with the Ravens as well. … Prediction: Ravens 27, Bengals 24
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Dajani (Chargers +5.5): I'm not so sure that Justin Herbert didn't mess up his left hand for life. After undergoing surgery last Monday, he decided to play a week later, and was sacked a career-high seven times while rushing 10 times for 66 yards. As for the spread, this number is a bit large to me. Consider the Chargers defense ranks top 10 in yards allowed per game (282.2), points allowed per game (20.8), third-down percentage (34.4%), red zone touchdown percentage (52.5%), takeaways (18) and sacks (35). Patrick Mahomes and Co. were shut out in the first half at HOME last week for the first time since 2018, and while this Chargers defense is not exactly the Texans defense, I still believe they are going to give the Chiefs' backup offensive linemen trouble. Chiefs win this game, but I don't want to lay 5.5 points … Prediction: Chiefs 20, Chargers 17
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Dubin (Chargers +5.5): The Chargers did not look particularly good offensively on Monday night against the Eagles. Justin Herbert struggled to complete passes and looked somewhat uncomfortable in the pocket. But they still managed to win the game thanks to some solid rushing and an incredible defensive performance. I don't see Kansas City's offense exploding here, so I like the Chargers to at least keep the game close, even if Kansas City wins the game. … Prediction: Chiefs 23, Chargers 20
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at New England Patriots
Dajani (Bills -1.5): I have a hard time imagining the Patriots sweeping the season series with the Bills -- even if Josh Allen has to win in New England this week. The Patriots have won 10 straight games, so it's probably time for an "L," right? Obviously this is a good team, but how confident are we that New England is a legitimate Super Bowl contender? The Patriots have had the easiest schedule in the NFL, and their season-defining win is probably ... the Bills. Vegas agrees with me that revenge is coming for Foxborough… Prediction: Bills 23, Patriots 21
Dubin (Bills -1.5): It took a trio of uncharacteristic turnovers for the Patriots to beat the Bills by three in the first matchup between these two teams. The bet here is that Buffalo takes better care of the ball this time around and is able to pull out a win behind Josh Allen and a defense that has forced multiple turnovers itself in five of seven games since the bye. … Prediction: Bills 24, Patriots 21
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos
Dajani (Broncos +2.5): "Fraud Bowl?" No, I like both of these teams, but I think I like the Broncos more. This Denver defense leads the NFL in yards per play (4.5), third down percentage (31%) and red zone percentage (40%). I truly think Jordan Love is going to have to have his best game of the season to get past the Broncos in Denver. And even if the Broncos get off to a slow start on Sunday, they seemingly always rebound. Denver has a +50-point differential in the fourth quarter this season, which ranks second in the league … Prediction: Broncos 24, Packers 20
Dubin (Packers -2.5): Green Bay has won four in a row and seems to be hitting its stride on both sides of the ball. The passing game has seemingly gotten on track over the last few weeks, and we know what they can do defensively. The Broncos can reach as high a ceiling defensively as any team in the NFL, but they also have a low floor offensively, and I'm not as confident in Bo Nix against the Green Bay pass rush as I am in Jordan Love against Denver's. … Prediction: Pacers 23, Broncos 20
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Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5)
Dajani (Rams -5.5): Talk about a get-right game for L.A. last week. The Rams thumped the hapless Arizona Cardinals, 45-17, following their shocking loss to the Carolina Panthers. Now, Matthew Stafford gets his former team -- who he actually has a losing record against. Most bettors probably think this line is too large, but this Lions defense is down several starters -- including the Pro Bowler Brian Branch, who just tore his Achilles. The Lions are 7-6 ATS compared to the Rams' 9-4 ATS record. It may be a sweat in the fourth quarter, but I'll actually lay the points with the favorites … Prediction: Rams 28, Lions 21
Dubin (Lions +5.5): The Lions are once again battered by injuries on defense, having just lost Brian Branch for the season last Thursday in addition to the various other players they already had on injured reserve. But their offense is good enough to keep them in any game with any team -- even one as good as the Rams. Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are so explosive that they can overcome some of the issues Detroit might have up front with L.A.'s defensive line. As long as the protection doesn't totally implode, I like Detroit to keep this close. … Prediction: Rams 30, Lions 26
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) (SNF)
Dajani (Cowboys -5.5): I was very wrong about how the Vikings would fare against the Washington Commanders last week, but we've seen this movie before. Remember when the Vikings went and upset the Lions in Week 9? Everyone thought Minnesota had turned a corner. Then, the Vikings lost four straight with horrific quarterback play. While the Cowboys lost to the Lions in Week 14, they had a mini bye to rest, and are surely rejuvenated by the rival Eagles' overtime loss to the Chargers on "Monday Night Football." To put it simply, Dak Prescott is going to out-score J.J. McCarthy … Prediction: Cowboys 30, Vikings 23
Dubin (Cowboys -5.5): I know the Vikings just went out and dominated the Commanders, but I'm not sure I can envision a repeat of that offensive performance. It is basically the only time all year that the offense has looked competent, let alone good, and the Dallas defense was looking improved against weaker opponents before getting torn apart by the Lions last week. Minnesota is one of those weaker opponents. I think the Cowboys can score just enough on Minnesota's defense here to keep the Vikings at a distance. … Prediction: Cowboys 23, Vikings 13
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) (MNF)
Dajani (Steelers -3): The Dolphins lead the NFL in scoring defense (13.3 points per game), rushing yards per game (192.3) and turnover differential (+7) during this four-game winning streak, but the only decent team Miami beat was Buffalo in Week 10. The Steelers established some momentum this past week with the win over the Ravens, as controversial as it maybe was, but I'll take the home team in a close contest. The Steelers have a 22-game win streak at home on "Monday Night Football!" It's the longest streak all-time … Prediction: Steelers 20, Dolphins 14
Dubin (Dolphins +3): Did you know that the Dolphins are 5-1 in their last six games since dropping to 1-6 and looking like their season was done? Mike McDaniel has this team playing really well! They can run on anybody, and we've seen that you can run on the Steelers. (Look at what the Bills did a couple weeks ago.) If they can control the game on the ground, I like their chances to pull of an upset here, considering that the Pittsburgh offense still isn't explosive enough to put an opponent away. … Prediction: Dolphins 21, Steelers 17
