NFL Week 16 early odds: Seahawks home underdogs vs. Rams; Chiefs still favored despite Patrick Mahomes injury
Here's a look at the lines for Week 16 in the NFL, including the effects of Micah Parsons' injury
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9 min read
The NFL is coming off a seismic slate in Week 15. All across the league, several games carried massive weight for the overall playoff picture. Some teams, like the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos, were able to punch their tickets to the postseason with wins, while others saw their dreams of hoisting a Lombardi Trophy die on the vine.
That includes the Kansas City Chiefs, who not only lost to the Los Angeles Chargers to officially eliminate them from playoff contention, but also lost Patrick Mahomes due to what the team later confirmed to be a torn ACL. Meanwhile, Mahomes wasn't the only injury to sprout up as the Green Bay Packers are also holding their breath surrounding star pass rusher Micah Parsons, who is feared to have an ACL tear as well.
It's safe to say that this weekend will have ramifications that will be felt far beyond Sunday, and we're even seeing a glimpse of that as we now start to turn our attention to Week 16 and the lines revolving around that slate. For instance, the Parsons injury appears to have drastically swung the spread in Green Bay's upcoming matchup against the Bears.
Below, we'll dive more into that development and more as we take an early look at the odds for Week 16.
Week 16 early odds
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; all games on Sunday unless noted.
| Game | Early line | Early total | Early moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Rams at Seahawks (Thursday) | Rams -1.5 | 44.5 | Rams -112, Seahawks -102 |
Eagles at Commanders (Saturday) | Eagles -6 | 45.5 | Eagles -290, Commanders +235 |
Packers at Bears (Saturday) | Packers -1.5 | 46.5 | Packers -130, Bears +110 |
Bills -10 | 42.5 | Bills -549, Browns +410 | |
Dolphins -1.5 | 50.5 | Bengals +102, Dolphins -122 | |
Chiefs at Titans | Chiefs -3.5 | 37.5 | Chiefs -192, Titans +160 |
Saints -4.5 | 40.5 | Jets +180, Saints -218 | |
Chargers at Cowboys | Cowboys -1.5 | 49.5 | Chargers -108, Cowboys -112 |
Vikings -2.5 | 44.5 | Vikings -142, Giants +120 | |
Buccaneers -2.5 | 45.5 | Buccaneers -142, Panthers +120 | |
Falcons -2.5 | 46.5 | Falcons -125, Cardinals +105 | |
Jaguars at Broncos | Broncos -3 | 45.5 | Jaguars +130, Broncos -155 |
Texans -14.5 | 37.5 | Raiders +900, Texans -1587 | |
Lions -7 | 49.5 | Steelers +250, Lions -310 | |
Ravens -2.5 | 48.5 | Patriots +120, Ravens -142 | |
49ers -5.5 | 46.5 | 49ers -258, Colts +210 |
Notable movement, trends
Rams at Seahawks (Thursday)
Seattle initially opened as a short 1.5-point favorite in this pivotal NFC West matchup, but the odds have since moved toward Los Angeles. Coming out of Sunday, the Rams are now laying 1.5 as a road favorite. That could be due to the Seahawks barely escaping with a win in Week 15 against 44-year-old Philip Rivers and the Colts, thus shaking confidence in them to unseat the Rams. These two division rivals come into Week 16 tied with an NFL-best 10-4 ATS record on the season. L.A. is 4-2 ATS on the road, while Seattle is 4-3 ATS at home (0-1 ATS as home underdog).
Eagles at Commanders (Saturday)
Philadelphia seemed to get back on track, snapping a three-game losing streak with a 31-0 win over the Raiders. That bounce-back win has helped the Eagles move from a 5.5-point favorite at the open to now laying 6 points to Washington on the road. The Commanders also came out of Week 15 victorious after defeating the Giants, but it remains to be seen if Jayden Daniels will suit up in this divisional matchup after missing Sunday's action. Washington is 3-3 ATS at home this season, which includes a 1-2 ATS mark as a home underdog. The Eagles are 3-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Packers at Bears (Saturday)
The fate of the NFC North could very well come to a head on Saturday when the Packers visit Chicago to face the Bears. Initially, Green Bay was a 3-point road favorite, but now is laying just 1.5 points. That's likely due to Micah Parsons going down with a serious knee injury that is expected to end his season. The Bears have been one of the better bets as the home team this season, coming into Week 16 at 4-2 ATS from Soldier Field. The Packers are 2-5 ATS on the road in 2025.
Bills at Browns
Buffalo kept its pursuit of another AFC East title alive after rallying from a 21-point deficit against the Patriots on Sunday. That mathematically keeps them alive in the division race, but they cannot slip up. The oddsmakers don't believe they will in Week 16, making them a 10-point road favorite as they travel to Cleveland. Initially, the Bills opened as a 9.5-point favorite and have since ticked up to double digits. The Browns are coming off a loss to the Bears, where Shedeur Sanders threw three interceptions. The Bills are 4-3 ATS on the road this season, while the Browns are 4-2 ATS at home.
Bengals at Dolphins
Miami still has its Week 15 game against the Steelers to play on Monday night, so these odds could shift even more. That said, the Dolphins have jumped out as the favorite after opening as a 1.5-point home underdog to Cincinnati. Now, they are laying the 1.5. That's likely due to the lifeless effort the Bengals put out on Sunday in a shutout loss to the Ravens, which officially eliminated them from playoff consideration. The Dolphins are 3-3 ATS at Hard Rock Stadium this season, while Cincinnati is 3-4 ATS on the road.
Chiefs at Titans
Kansas City opened as a 10.5-point favorite, but in the aftermath of Patrick Mahomes suffering a season-ending ACL tear, those odds have shrunk rather dramatically. However, the Chiefs are still favored, laying 3.5 points on the road as they head to Nashville to face the Titans. Tennessee is 3-4 ATS at Nissan Stadium this season. Even with Mahomes at the helm, Kansas City was just 1-4 ATS on the road this season, so they'll face an uphill climb now that Gardner Minshew is slated to start the rest of the way.
Jets at Saints
New Orleans opened as a 3.5-point favorite over the Jets, and that has since moved up to -4.5. The Saints have come on in recent weeks, with back-to-back wins against the Buccaneers and Panthers. Specifically, Tyler Shough has looked solid, which should make them a tough out, especially against a New York team that is 3-11 on the year and just allowed Trevor Lawrence to post six total touchdowns. The Saints are 2-5 ATS at home this season, while the Jets are 3-2-1 ATS on the road.
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Chargers at Cowboys
The Cowboys' hopes of making the playoffs effectively went up in smoke with Sunday's loss to the Vikings, and the belief in Dallas is starting to wane from a betting perspective as well. Initially, the Cowboys opened as a 2.5-point favorite over the Chargers, but that spread has started to move toward Los Angeles as Dallas is now a slight 1.5-point favorite. The Chargers are 2-4 ATS on the road this season, but are coming off an impressive road win over the Chiefs on Sunday and are still looking to clinch a playoff berth. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 4-3 ATS at AT&T Stadium this season.
Vikings at Giants
Minnesota opened as a road favorite over the Giants, albeit laying just 1.5 points. However, that advantage is starting to grow in the aftermath of the Vikings pulling out a win against the Cowboys, and they are now laying 2.5 points. New York is 3-3 ATS at home this season, while the Vikings are 3-3 ATS on the road, so something will need to give here.
Buccaneers at Panthers
The NFC South is still very much up for grabs after neither of these two teams could create some distance between one another in Week 15. Both clubs blew sizable leads, which puts a greater emphasis on this Week 16 contest, the first of two head-to-heads over the final three weeks. In this one, the Buccaneers are the road favorites, laying 2.5 points after the line opened with them laying just 1.5 points. Tampa Bay is 4-3 ATS on the road this season, and did cover its lone game as a road favorite. As for the Panthers, they are 4-2 ATS at home, which includes a 4-1 ATS mark as a home underdog.
Falcons at Cardinals
Both of these teams are playing for pride at this point, with each of them officially eliminated from the playoffs. With that in mind, Atlanta is the road favorite, laying 2.5 over Arizona. The Cardinals have struggled in this spot in 2025, coming into Week 16 with just a 1-4 ATS record as a home underdog. However, the Falcons have yet to cover any of their three games this season as a road favorite (0-3 ATS).
Jaguars at Broncos
Both of these AFC contenders looked stellar in Week 15. For the Jaguars, they watched as Trevor Lawrence lit up the Jets with six total touchdowns (five passing and one rushing). As for the Broncos, they took down the Packers in a heavyweight matchup with help from Bo Nix, who tossed four touchdowns. It appears Denver's win has impressed the oddsmakers a bit more as they've jumped out to as a 3-point favorite after opening as less than a field goal favorite. The Broncos are a perfect 7-0 straight up at home this season, but are just 4-3 ATS at Mile High. Jacksonville is 3-3 ATS on the road.
Raiders at Texans
Houston is a massive 14.5-point favorite over the Raiders, and it's pretty easy to see why. Las Vegas continues to struggle in 2025 and was just shut out at the hands of the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Texans dropped 40 points in a win over the Cardinals, so this has the makings of a blowout. Houston is 5-2 ATS at home this season, which is tied for the second-best cover rate (71.4%) in the league. The Raiders are 2-5 ATS on the road.
Steelers at Lions
Pittsburgh still has its Week 15 matchup against the Dolphins on Monday night to play, so this line could see more movement. That said, the Lions open as a touchdown favorite and are looking to bounce back after a loss to the Rams. Currently, Detroit is on the outside looking in on the playoffs, so the Lions have zero margin for error over these final three weeks. At Ford Field this season, the Lions are 4-3 ATS.
Patriots at Ravens
New England had its winning streak snapped after blowing a 21-point lead to the Bills on Sunday. Instead of clinching the AFC East, the Patriots now have to respond in Week 16 in order to keep Buffalo at arm's length in the division race. They'll do so as a slight road underdog, catching 2.5 points to a Ravens team that just shut out the Bengals on Sunday and is still alive in the AFC playoff race. Baltimore is just 2-6 ATS at home this season, which is the second-worst cover rate (25%) in the league this season. Meanwhile, New England is 5-1 ATS on the road.
49ers at Colts (Monday)
The Niners opened as a 3-point favorite, and that has since increased to San Francisco laying 5.5 points on the road. Kyle Shanahan's team has been one of the better clubs to back on the road this season, sporting a 6-2 ATS record away from the Bay Area. Meanwhile, the Colts are 4-2 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium this season, but are a drastically different club in this matchup with Philip Rivers under center.
